10/20 online against a complete unknown, 3rd hand of session so no reads whatsoever

He opens the button, I raise with AQo, he calls.

Flop is 446.

I bet, he calls.

Turn is J (suits dont matter).

I check and he bets.

Folding feels too tight and exploitable, but check calling twice feels a bit stationiny. Thoughts?

Solidly on the fence about this one. Thinking about calling down. Very tough against unknown.

Folding is crazy. Absolutely bat****. Turn check is debatable.

Interesting. So in HU limit, something Im not very good at admittedly, when you get an AK, AQ or even AJ type of hand, are you just pretty much going to showdown like the vast majority of the time no matter what? It just feels so spewy to me. With this hand in particular, if folding is as out of the question as you say, is there like absolutely nothing that can happen after this flop to make you fold?

Is this ignition?
Bet/call is absolutely standard here if so.

Hi Poogs,
Without any specific reads I think we have to get back to where we are in our range on the turn to make the decision. It's not mentioned in the post but I'm assuming we 3 bet from the SB and we'd only call in the BB. What hands would you 3 bet a button open with from the SB? Just using a couple ranges which I'm sure are debatable:

BU Open: 22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q6s+,J7s+,T8s+,98s,87s,76s,A2o+,K7o+ ,Q9o+,J9o+
SB 3 Bet: 22+,A2s+,K8s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,A3o+,KTo+,QJo

This 3 bet range has a total of 313 combos on the turn after card removal. Any pair, J, 6, 4 or AK represent 141 combos, putting AQ in the top 55% of our range here. Looks like a bet / call depending on the 3 bet range you have in this spot (SB), definitely not a check / fold.

Let's say we check call the turn and the river is ugly, let's say a K comes... what now? There is a section of our range that would have bet the turn and a section that would have check folded. What's left in your range that is check calling the turn here? Probably a lot of A high type hands, maybe some small pairs. AQ will be in the top portion of this range again so it looks like a call also.

I'd check call the turn. Though with a read that the opponent is overaggressive on the flop with pairs and better hands, coupled with a read that he peels the flop super light, I'll bet the turn to induce a bluff raise.

You should bet the turn for value and probably call down unless it's a pretty passive opponent.

Was this pokermania? I may be villain.

Check calling is bad from a game theory and an exploitative sense. Worse aces are all calling. Kings are likely to call again. 87 is calling or raising. Our range is just stronger on this board and there's not much of anything he can do to exploit us if we're bet/calling this hand on the turn. Add in that a lot of bad players are never folding anything on this flop (like they're peeling with T7), and it's a pretty easy bet.

I understand the desire to bet here, I agree that it's quite profitable to bet. I think it's really close. However when I think of checking, I'm thinking of facing turn and river bets where my hand doesn't look as profitable on the surface, but then there's all the ev I realize when my opponent takes these options:

bet turn check river = I'm winning quite often.

check turn bet river = I'm winning quite often and can check raise rivered pairs.

check turn check river = I'm winning very often.

check turn, call my river bet = I'm winning the vast majority of the time.

check turn, raise my river bet = I'm winning less often, but I think this is a rarity.

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Compare all that with the lines we face when we bet the turn:

he folds, ev = (pot), the more often this happens, the more we should bet unless he bluffs way too much when checked to. This is actually a lot of ev.

he calls, then the river goes check check, we're winning quite often here.

he calls, then we check call the river, our ev isn't so good here, probably <1/2 pot.

he raises we calldown unimproved, our ev isn't so good here, probably <1/2 pot.

he raises, we call and hit top pair on the river, our ev should be pretty good here, probably ~60-65% pot, guessing for fun.

Of course, the influence of these ev sources will be dependent on the ranges our opponent uses and the frequency with which we face these lines. However, with zero reads I still check here.

The argument that, "it's not exploitive" ignores the possibility that our opponents will bluff the turn and river way too much, which i think is much more likely than them raising the turn way too much when we bet. It's much easier for bad players to bluff when checked to compared with bluff raising. That's just been my experience though and I've never played ignition.

Also, if they miss lots of value on the turn and river when I check, then that's ev that I would have lost vs a more aggressive player.

If they play just right, then I think a mix is necessary, but I've already rambled too much so I won't go there.

I disagree with the idea that someone will overbluff this spot completely and we'd need a solid read that a guy will bet tons of bluffs when checked to. It takes a special kind of idiot or a major league leveling dynamic to be overbluffing in this spot.

Oh it's just been my experience that they do. Having checked this hand many times on the turn in similar spots, perhaps 70% of the time as I used to bet call here years ago, I may be in a better position to judge how often they will bluff when checked to compared with someone that has been betting similar turns for years.

Hey poogs I'm curious to know who started the game? This could sway me to a bet call on the turn if you're the gamestarter.

Some players will bet just because you checked. I think most don't. You may have a small pair, ot you may call w ace high.

I think my big question is if my opponent is a weak peeler, which means sizing him up.

I'd suspect that those who don't think this is a slam dunk not even close turn bet, are not 3betting wide enough preflop.

Ok if you don't think it's even close on the turn, then where do you draw the line at the bottom of your value range?

Handwaving, I'd guess the line is around A8 or A9.

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Sounds good to me, I'd mix value bets and checks vs good players with those hands as well as my big Aces, so I think the ev difference between cutting off your value range at A8 compared with AQ will be pretty small.

Going into the turn, opponents range is still atc or very close to it. If he has a flop raising range then it's capped too. He shouldn't be folding much more than 1/6th of this range, so we can vbet pretty damn thin.

I tend to agree with this. More generally our play on the turn should very much be affected by our preflop 3 betting range. I do not think a turn check call here is completely awful, but considering a fold is.

I don't mind checking some non paired, straight possible boards where we don't have a straight draw but a paired board with a strong ace like we have here is an easy bet and probably bet river for value as well.

If you check, never fold.

Online rigged, again.

thanks for the replies.

I think the point about not 3 betting enough pre is def true in my case. Im not good at short handed limit and want to get better.

I ended up check calling twice and losing to a 6. I guess at gamespeed I really wasnt considering folding but I am a little surprised at how awful that would have been, judging from the responses.

I think it's worth asking if you are actually playing HU or this is a shorthanded game where the sb folded because this changes things drastically.

Yeah no kidding, my ranges would be totally different. EP is basically MP.