I'm simply saying it's a fairly big mistake to assume villain is nutted in this spot the majority of times, to counter the point that villain is incapable of folding in this spot (which is what this conversation has devolved from to begin with).

My read on magicmcq is that he was pretty decent mid-stakes online reg and maybe slightly more LAG than that_pope. It is pretty unsurprising that he's playing 75s in that spot, as he's in a FR live game and probably correctly thinks he's owning the field in SH spots.
My reads were way off the last time we played. Also +1, no idea how this becomes a huge mistake. It is either slightly bad for a normal player or standard for a modern LAG. Add in a folding tell from the BTN or a read that he's tight + good control and how do we ever fold a suited one gapper with a card as big as a 7 in it?
I guess my issue would be the river. Would a strong LAG decide to fold the river with a better hand? Folding out the odd hand we beat isn't a disaster and we get the benefit of hiding our hand, but I'm having trouble coming up with raise/calling ranges where betting is a good idea. What do you put the villain on where betting is good? Are you just playing meta-game issues with pair hands the villain got out of line with on the turn, got a little lost, and now might fold the river?

I don't think I've ever disagreed with you more than I do now (I usually agree with what you say too). I have more to say about the hand but going to dinner right now

Wow, thanks guys for all of the responses! Admittedly, I was uncertain about posting this hand because it is so meta-game driven and player specific, but I honestly thought it was interesting and wasn't sure if it was defensible given certain assumptions or just complete spew...

We can argue over preflop, but can we talk about the other streets first? On the flop, I look at a board like A26r in an unusually 3-bet spot (as in, the SB cold calls, then BB 3s and all call). I think that my continuation range in this spot is in danger of being really strong — exploitably strong. I mean, once SB checks (and SB is the sort to donk some made hands here -- probably should have mentioned that earlier), I'm thinking that the likelihood of him having something that can continue is relatively low. Furthermore, I suppose I thought that BB's range was something like:

99+ (33 combos) - 37%
ATs+ (12 combos) - 13%
AJo+ (24 combos) - 27%
KQs (4 combos) - 4%
1/2 discount on KQo (6 combos) - 7%
1/2 discount on {T9s, JTs, QJs, KJs, QTs} (10 combos) - 11%
Total: 89 combos

If we break BB’s range into three components (and assume he bets this flop 100%), it would be:
Top 43 combos (roughly 50%) — AA and other Aces
Next 30 combos (roughly 33%) — the non-set PPs (99-KK)
The bottom 16 combos (bottom 16%) — the “air"


If I am only continuing with (we’ll leave the raise vs call distribution up for debate at this point) hands like:

Ax (I probably am raising virtually any Ace in this spot pre — so 124 combos
PPs (probably raising all of these too pre) — 48 combos
6s (65s, 76s, 86s, K6s) - 12 combos

If I never find any weaker hands to play back with here, can’t he exploit me by playing virtually his entire range perfectly against me in this spot? With a backdoor flush and BD straight draw, don’t I need to take a shot here sometimes? If I shouldn’t play back sometimes with a hand like this, what should be my calling and raising range on this board in this spot?



Now when I raise the flop and get called and pick up an OESD on the turn, when he check-raises, his range does really seem Ace heavy (plus the AA and maybe an occasional KJss or so). I guess I thought that he might raise the turn extra-light here because he can get away in some spots when I 3-bet, just because I thought he’d think its so hard for me to be bluffing here with this line… but that really gets into meta-game / history stuff…

But I am interested in what you guys think regarding constructing a reasonable flop call and raising range for this board in this spot.


Thanks again!

-magic

I'd like to say fold pre/ but prob would find myself capping/full barreling ....

I checked out range vs range vs range equity on the flop with these ranges:

co: 22+, A2+, K7+, K2s+, Q9o+, Q5s+, J8o+, J7s+, T9o, T7s+, 87o, 75s+, 64s+, 54s.

sb: 55-99, A7o-AJo, A2s-A9s, K9o+, K5s+, Q7s+, J9o, J8s+, T9o, T8s, 98s. Which is probably a bit tight.

bb: 88, AJo+, A9s+, KQo, KTs+, QJs.

The big blind is crushing with just over 50% equity 3 ways. I'm considering not raising at all on this flop even though I'm in second place with ~25% equity and the small blind is trailing by just a few %.

But you did say that the small bind would donk here, so after we take out Ax from his range: We gain 5%, and the big blind gains ~8% after the small blind checks. I think this is even more reason to just call the flop with our whole continue range.

Magic, I does villain always 3 bet hands like 9-10s, Q-10s here preflop, I'd assume most good players don't but I guess he has to have some weaker stuff when he 3 bets here.

Also when counting your combos, are u really opening A2o here in cutoff?

How come everyone is ignoring the SB? Doesn't he have like over 100 combos of Ax? So we're counting on the parlay of SB and BB both not having an Ace.

considering how many people are fans of raising this flop then b/3betting the turn i don't know why anyone would even think about folding in this spot

hmm misread your post dd, i only slightly disagree with you. i can get behind the first 3 decisions once in awhile against certain opponents but i really dislike the turn 3b and river bet against described villain

pf i don't really care about but with a loose sb and a good player in the bb i prefer folding

from the flop on, i don't like trying to get good players to fold in this spot. good players don't like to fold in big pots when it's very obvious what they have while you can have a very wide range of hands. considering how many people want to blast away on every street i don't know why they ever would

I think I'd float flop and raise some turns and play my strong hands the same way

Yea I don't get what were trying to fold out here. Do we really think that he's going to 3 bet pf, bet flop c/r turn and fold AQ here? Or do you think he has 9-10s some absurdly high% of the time. I can't realistically imagine a good player doing either enough to justify turn 3 bet.

Hi, my name is munga30 and I'm not a good player.

Preflop has been covered but, FWIW, button was very loose and will call you widely and chases post.

My three bet preflop is unusual for me in that I have been playing a call-only strat for a while. But some live-scale runbad has me tinkering and when confronted with a couple of wide ranges I thought having a 3bet range would be ok despite your being a strong thinking player. The SB is truly terrible.

When you don't cap and raise the flop I think you are capable of having bluffs. You're the only person I can recall showing me a stone bluff on the flop. But you're also very aggressive and will barrel the turn with plenty of thin value hands and continued bluffs. So I wait for the turn with some lesser value hands and still fastplay my strongest stuff.

On the turn, I think that's a fine card to follow through and kr as planned. Thinking about it now it's really hard for me to have turned bluffs here as I probably don't get too out of line with spades and don't turn straight draws. You three bet in tempo, which is sad but not final. You can still have some turned flushdraws and straightdraws, and even a pair+fd to turn into a semibluff. My plan was to look for particularly bad river cards and make a decision.

So when the 5s rolls off I get very caught up in the mode of "everything got there" and "what's left to bluff". I even said aloud something along those lines as I folded AQo, which is even worse. Although I still think it's difficult for you to have bluff combos by the river, I didn't give enough thought to our history (more rewarding puke calls vs you than anyone I can think of) and the specific pot size (helps me make these calls) and that I have the top of my range. I realize now that having played through the night may have been a factor. Excuses, excuses. Many here who I respect seem pretty incredulous at the idea of AQ folding so this was clearly a pretty bad fold.

So nice hand and enjoy my future payoffs.

You're allowed to re-raise for value, especially if both other players in the pot are super wide. At some point you're going to have to think about how much info you're giving away. The flip side is that by capping some but not all hands, magicmcq is also defining his hand, as you read.

You realize that AQo is close to the mortal nuts on the flop, right? He gets like 6 combos of 22/66 and otherwise you win. OK maybe some odd 2 pair combos with Ax and Axs, but he's still fast playing lots of TP hands plus bluffs. Since he's pure bluffing sometimes to attack A high boards, combo-wise you're giggling.

Your plan is to decide how many bets you go before showing down. The pot is going to be 13.5BB when you have to call, so you're not folding for any reason. He starting raising you on the flop, so what exactly is he representing to allow you to hero fold?

What was he raising on the flop that got there with the 5 on the river? Hopefully you didn't show or reveal what you had.

Not sure what you're saying here. I had every confidence in my hand at this point but have to draw the line somewhere if I plan to fastplay some. Are you saying I should draw the line someplace differently? If so, where and why?

AA 66 22 A6 A2 AK 88 A8 86s 97dd 97hh 74dd 74hh 43dd 43hh. Those 44 combos all got there on the river. There's two not-so-obvious bluff combos (75hh and 75dd) and I'm sure we could bring 54hh and 54dd into the mix based on the same assumptions. So, in a perfect world, I'm left wondering how often he follows through when pairing (high, probably) and sure he could have enough junk often enough to justify the other 2ish combos to swing a call on pot odds even in my crude, undiscounted count. I screwed up.

So we both fail sixth street. Within 30 seconds of my fold, magic is giggling uncontrollably because he knows he got over on me. I'm disappointed but also a little relieved to know for sure that I screwed up. I admitted that he bluffed me but didn't seem super worried about it and complemented him on a nice hand. jdr0317 was at the table and I'm sure understood what happened but otherwise we didn't get so far into it that the masses will be capitalizing. But your point isn't lost on me.

Thanks for your feedback.

i'm not intending to derail this thread, but are people just calling their entire range from the bb vs. a late position open and a sb cold call? is that a thing? i have a 3betting range there for sure.

You said that you fastplayed your strong hands, but didn't fastplay this. I took it as an indication that this was "a lesser value hand" for you. I'm disagreeing. Versus his range, this is not a lesser hand. I'm assuming that he has a capping range preflop and that AA and AK are in it.

A nit, but he doesn't have AA. Pretty sure he doesn't have AK or to some extent 88 due to PF non-cap. By the time he gets 74 and 43 in his PF range, he's got so many bluffs that I don't care and would never fold TP. I don't think he can have it both ways where you get to fold for one more bet on the river and yet he's super wide elsewhere.

So, fewer than 44 combos to fear. Out of all combos he bluffs, even 44 isn't a big enough number to make me fold.

Sometimes a cult movie is "so bad it's good". I'm starting to think OP played this hand in such a strange manner that when all the proper cards fell, he was able to fool a player thinking on a very high level.

But most of the time, the dominos don't fall this way, do they?

It is at least good when your real outs don't match the ones they think you have. It also says you have a tough time making thin value bets vs. some opponents.

I haven't played LHE regularly in a long time, but doesn't your flop "raise vs call distribution" matter significantly in this situation? Seems like without knowing your continuation of a call vs. raise, it's hard to understand the villain's range on his subsequent actions.

To continue with my rusty rambling, in this instance, we should define or know what our call vs. raising flop range is with all these:

E.g. Assuming this is your range here pre (though I'm a little confused/dubious on some of the #s/hands here, are you leaving out the top of your range?) if you raise close to 100% of these on the flop that's very different than fastbluffing 50% and calling/turn raising with the other 50% or something like that.

So obv I would def agree that you need to have a wider range than just nuts, Ax, or peeling pockets to go to the turn here, but again depending on your normal r/c ranges, I think you can quickly skew your opponent's ranges into unfavorable spots for yourself, thus rendering concern for playing perfectly against you almost moot. To put it another way, I think you can easily cap an opponents range to be forced to deal with spiking or hoping for an impractical, leveling fold too often.

And IMHO, in this particular action/runout, it seems like you might have done that and tried to level a guy into a fold by the river (which based on results, congrats lol).

But I'm rusty, what do I know...

i see. thanks.

I think a fold pre is fine unless the blinds are tight and you have a decent chance to steal the blinds or they've shown they will just check fold a decent amount. The sb cold doesn't bode well for you bringing the bb along. I certainly don't hate the open. But as played I like a fold on the flop. Just not a good spot for you IMO.

Is this a time game at Foxwoods? All my recent 20 play has been at 10% to a 5$ max. I am only 44 so too young, I hope, for OMC classification, but I don't think voluntarily opening with 7 high, when they are raking out 1/2 a SB is a recipe for long term success in LHE.

Also, who folds Top pair in this spot like ever? Aren't both players guilty of several fundamental LHE mistakes during this hand? Really, I am not being sarcastic or critical, has the game changed that much?

That is a nut flop for the BB, he should be betting and raising at every opportunity, and then checking the river specifically to pay off one bet to an unlikely monster, and to induce from a possible spaz. What Am I missing? That players are so great nowadays they can fold AQ confidently here getting 13 to 1? Where do these people come from? Also, all the math guys say that .75 bb's per hour makes you expert. Well, the bb owes 19 hours of play to make up for this mistake. solid.

one guy messed up the two small streets and one messed up the big ones. That's what happens when you go full-on LAG vs a thinking player who might be trying to save bets. He somehow puts you on a hand that he can make a great fold against. If you're going to rate mistakes based on feedback.

• Preflop, slight mistake to "I'd most play this because the limit is low and I'd be bored otherwise" depending on the responder.
• Flop. Everyone says fold.
• Turn. TP2K may have missed some value either here or flop. If I knew how wide OP was firing, it may have been expert to let him barrel off. So maybe not even a mistake.
• River. Pretty big folding mistake. People should be giving the OP grief about not trying this bluff because no hand would fold. No one imagined TP2K was ever folding.