9 handed 20 holdem, bb is a pro, others are not.

I open 99 UTG, bunch of people call and blinds call. We see flop 5 ways (i think).

I bet the Td 7c 3d flop, 2-3 people call, BB Check raises and everyone calls.
Turn is 2s and BB donk checks, I bet and 1 or 2 calls and BB calls
River is 9d and BB leads.....

My thoughts: seems impossible for BB to not have a flush draw here given his line (would be a good lead with 8-9 but I don't think he would do that and I block most of his combos).

But I also don't think he should have to many flush draws here on flop given that when I cnet this flop 5+ ways, I pretty much have 88+ or like AdQd type hands and if he check raises flush draws, Im going to 3 bet most of my range leaving him oop and heads up vs much better hands a lot. That being said he has more than enough equity to just jam flop with combo draws. However, I think most people are going to just assume flush draw, 4-5 ways = jam (and its possible everyone calls my 3 bet anyways on flop because why wouldn't they).

Although, I still think a check call line on the flop is best given that (a) he's going to need to get there to win this pot (b) since he needs to get there having everyone else come along is good (c) I'm going to c-bet most turn cards so if he gins a diamond he can check-raise field a lot......

That being said, I don't see to many ways he doesn't have a flush on the river....

Easy fold?

Little confused about reads and trees.

-you only Cbet flop with PPs and FDs. bb is a pro and can read this
-you say you would mostly b/3b over pairs and flush draws, and pro would read this
-hence, your b/flat range is exactly 88 and 99. Wouldn't pro read this? Isn't it possible he's pulling a move on you even though it's 4/5 handed? He could mergebet two pair or even Tx here (mergebet = get you to fold better, dumbdumbs to call worse)

His line is weird even with a flush draw. Weird lines show-up with weird hands on the river often, even if he's a pro - like 79 for example. It went from 5 handed to 3 or 4 handed on the river with bets on every street - big pot - I wouldn't fold the set. And if he shows the flush, so be it.

I c-bet the flop with pp 88+, Tx, and flush draws.
When I bet-call flop, yes my range is fairly narrow, mostly 88-99, flush draws, also some occasional hands I decide to wait and raise turn with. I'm not worried about this

i think you can fold. especially with 2 people still to act behind you. i don't see any ways dude doesn't have a flush.

Meh, agree that you have most straight draws blocked and he has flush here almost always, but from your fuzzy number of callers on all streets there's what, 12 bets in the pot? If so, prolly hate call and fold if it comes back to you for more action IMO.

Edit to add I'd be much more inclined to fold if your read on BB was "donkey" rather than "pro"

Folding a winner here would be one of those catastrophic session killing mistakes. Don't do it for 1 more bet. You gotta be good more than once in 12 times.

Assuming that he will 3 bet his best suited hands and he call with all of his other suited hands, he will have about 40 combos of diamonds exiting the flop. He will have at most this many combos making flush on the river. Given the pot size we would need him to have something else to the tune of 3 combos to have a profitable call. If we further assume that he may not checkraise on the flop and/or may not check call on the turn with all his FD (he does have the incentive to bet them on the turn), the number of diamond combos for him to bet with will be less, and we would need to have him betting with something else to the tune of 2 combos to have a profitable call. It seems very difficult for us to have this degree of certainty to fold.

I think I have to call one bet here for reasons stated above. I would obviously be folding to any further action behind me.

- Is a good pro really check raising a flush draw OOP knowing there will still be 4-5 players behind him seeing the turn and the possibility of you 3 betting? I know you ellude to that in your reads, but really? I would expect to see things like 10 9 or Ad10x here than a flush from him and it be more likely that someone behind has the flush. Either way, weird line by the 'pro'.

can anybody give an example of 1 hand that villain can have? (T9 and 97 don't make much sense to me and and only account for 6 unlikely combos vs around 76 very likely combos of flushes) you know villain's not closing the action right?

your analysis is spot on.

otoh, it is a huge pot, and as you said the line is consistent with 98 who decides "wtf, i might as donk the scare card" -- few combos, he doesn't always do this, but i might talk myself into a call just on this possibility alone.

Everyone folds after bb bets?

Is it like 19 to 1 in the river? I'm

I don't fold this river. I think he probably has a flush but the pot is really big and once in a while someone just shows up with something silly like 89, T9, or 97. You have tons of overpairs and stuff you can fold here if you want to get foldy but don't fold something this good.

I just don't see any possible way/reason he decides to Donk-check 10x on this turn, I also don't think he has it in him to try and bluff 5 people on river with the limited combos of 8-9.... That being said I called

Hes gonna bang the waitress after buying her a fur coat if you fold

I guess I don't know what hand I'm really hoping to see, really just anything that's not a flush. It's pretty much adding up a bunch of super small possibilities to come up with a number that's enough to call getting the price you're getting. Like J9cc. Or J9xx for an even smaller possibility. Or A7 or A3 with a BDFD that he thought had enough equity to jam flop and now is turning into a bluff.

Or maybe he misread his hand or misclicked somewhere along the way or something. Like maybe he had a ten, forgot he check-raised flop because he was watching TV or something and so checked the turn, and now he hits 2 pair on the river and bets because it's a scary river that you might not bet for him with an overpair.

And then a bunch of other random possibilities that I'm not mentioning. I mean every single hand combination probably has some non-0 chance if you go far enough past the decimal place. Overall, I feel the combination of all of them warrants a call.

hmm. are you trying to exploit him or play unexploitably yourself.

if a), a set is still really high up in your range. you can fold the Tx and over pairs you delay. all signs point to making a call here, unless your read is spot on.

When you don't 3 bet the flop, you pretty much have 88 or 99 for value hands, right? Then the turn is standard imo, but the river pairs his 9c8c. So he thinks your distribution is the case 99, or the other three combos of 88. Also, it's unlikely that anyone has a Ten, so his 9c8c has a 75% chance of being the best hand before you act, not considering the small probability that one of the bad players holds a ten or a flush. They're probably more likely to have random pairs than a flush. He can easily fold his one pair to a raise because of the multiway nature of the pot. So betting is not such a liability. Then he thinks that there's a small probability that you might even fold 99, because his range is mostly made flushes, and he thinks that perhaps worse pairs will call the river behind you. So he goes for it. Luck favors the bold, and this river bet is just that.

He probably has a flush, but I can't fold with the possibility of him having 9c8c sometimes. Maybe with a large sample against the guy I could fold it, but not as posted.

Reminds me of this hand:

.25/.50 at my house with family and friends:

tight utg player raises, everyone calls, I call in the big blind with AQo.

25Tr

checks around.

5o

I bet, utg calls, very loose passive showdown bound button calls.

8o

I bet, utg deliberates and folds the obvious winner, button calls as expected.

I show, utg's head drops in despair, button shows A3o and thinks he won before we explained the kicker situation to him. I win a pot that "should" have gone to utg.

sorry for the hijack, but that's one of my all time favorite hands.

For the people good suggesting bb may be good enough to try some elaborate bluff here with 8-9s because he was able to figure out right away my range is mostly 88-99 seem to not realize that such a player wold also realize that he shouldn't check-raise 8-9 on the flop here vs UTG c=bet. Additionally, look at the river bet from his perspective, UTG likely has 88-99 and flush draws, so UTG has 8 combos of hands that are either a set or a flush and hes going to lead with 8-9 here given that he'll likely get snapped called by UTG more than 8-9 times (because of some delayed flop hands that call) and then 4 other people to act that may have some sort of flush or two pair hand that would never fold. This is a pretty big parlay to expect bb to show up with the 8-9 river bluff

Yes, its a big parlay. The pot is also huge. I think it's a decent spot to donk bluff into the field some percentage of the time, specifically in live game, depending on how often the non-utg players are gonna call you off with whatever trash they have when the obvious draw gets there.

This is based on a conversation I had once w. BOC4life. His position was that people will often incorrectly fold in a big pot on the river for one bet in situations like this (obv draw gets there and somebody leads into largish field). These situations don't come up too often, but I've tried it a few times and think its been overall profitable (although obv no hard numbers to back it up). Doesn't work often, but doesn't need to in order to be profitable.

Anyhow, obv lineup dependant play and not something to do all the time, but a line worth taking once in a while IMO.

Of his flop checkraise range, we need to ask which part is carried forward to the turn bet and which part to the turn check call branch of the decision tree. I would have difficulty seeing him only check call his FD (he is a pro but I can be convinced.) To fold is to say this is what he does.

people bet (and fold) pairs on rivers like that all the time. he could also have a whiffed turn checkraise. since you don't even have a ****ing clue how much is in the pot, you have to call.

if you can confidently (and profitably) fold here you are probably too good to be playing 20/40

Turn didn't check through and he is too good for 20.