Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
river decision river decision

02-17-2015 , 09:29 AM
40, villain is a tag.

I open 99 in the farjack, the lojack 3bets me, and I call.

Flop: J87 2 clubs
I check/call

Turn: 7r
I check/call

River: Qr
I check, villain bets

how low do you go and why?
river decision Quote
02-17-2015 , 10:21 AM
AK, AT, particularly of clubs, didn't get there and we are getting pretty good odds against TAGs who can three barrel.

Now that im at the river I'm calling.
river decision Quote
02-17-2015 , 01:51 PM
'FARJACK' and 'LOJACK' are taking it too far. I presume this means BTN-4 v BTN-3.

We beat a spazzy ATs or KTs. AK rarely turns its hand into a bluff here (though it should). Many combos of ATs or KTs (or AKo) should be checking turn.

We beat very little, and I think it's a fold.
river decision Quote
02-17-2015 , 04:33 PM
i would c/c and feel fine about it
river decision Quote
02-17-2015 , 04:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by phunkphish
'FARJACK' and 'LOJACK' are taking it too far. I presume this means BTN-4 v BTN-3.

We beat a spazzy ATs or KTs. AK rarely turns its hand into a bluff here (though it should). Many combos of ATs or KTs (or AKo) should be checking turn.

We beat very little, and I think it's a fold.
they don't barrel off AK in your game? i see it all the time in all the USA casinos. when you say 'should' be checking turn - not everyone plays the way you do. based on your posts i'd wager that very few people play like you do :P
river decision Quote
02-17-2015 , 05:05 PM
raise flop?
river decision Quote
02-18-2015 , 07:29 AM
i think villain views me as tight and respects my play, so his 3b range is definitely tighter here. I'll say it can range anywhere from 7.4% (88+,ATs+,KQs,AJo+) to 10.6% (77+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,AJo+,KQo).

in both cases, i know he'll cbet every flop 100%,

Quote:
Originally Posted by ZOMG_RIGGED!
raise flop?
so hand equity vs. 100% cbet range on jc8c7h flop:
99 vs. 7.4% 3bet range: 47.647%
99 vs. 10.6% 3bet range: 50.127%

i think k/c'ing flop to bluff catch is the best option.

the turn is where it gets interesting, since I do know villain likes to go for thin values. I'm not sure what he knows about my post flop play and I'm not good enough to establish a favorable game dynamics with knowing what I know (e.g. villain might adjust if i over exploit). My range consists of a lot of gutshots and middle pairs on this board texture after just k/c'ing the flop. If I were to guess, he'd probably assume I'll k/r most of my value hands on the flop. Due to that, I'm guessing he's likely to double barrel the majority of his narrow range thinking it's for value. To exploit that I should delay value hands until the turn. 99 is not one of them.

anyways on hand equity vs. 100% double barrel range on jc8c7s7h:
99 vs. 7.4% 3bet range: 47.207%
99 vs. 10.6% 3bet range: 51.754% (not enough to k/r for value. also read is not strong enough to confirm 100% double barrel.)

the river comes the nasty Q which completes some bluffs and villain bets again after being checked to. IDK how many AK is in villain's triple barrel range, but simply taking it out from both a 7.4% 3bet and 10.6% 3bet range reduces the equity of 99 to 7.627% and 12.209% respectfully. If villain does triple barrel 100% then my equity with 99 is 27.333% and 25.98%.

I need just 11.76% to profitably call. Intuitively it seems like an ez call now by just using the hand vs. range method since if villain turns just a few AK into bluffs then I can profitably call with 99. Calling is at worst a slight mistake while folding can be a very big mistake.

Applying what I typed at game speed is the hard part. Typing this out definitely helps build my intuition. Knowing whether what I typed is a good or bad plan is another issue!

A tougher decision would probably be with AK. Worse hands I'd imagine bringing to the river would be A9cc, ATcc, AK, a8s, and maybe some AT/AQ. Maybe someone can shine upon how to bluffcatch at 7.5:1 since bluffs by villain here seem less polarizing and more merged (e.g. so if I bluff catch with AK, I chop a lot of times and I may even lose if I try bluffcatching with AT).

Last edited by tiger415; 02-18-2015 at 07:49 AM.
river decision Quote
02-18-2015 , 10:30 AM
Seems like you have it figured out
river decision Quote
02-18-2015 , 10:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigBadBabar
they don't barrel off AK in your game? i see it all the time in all the USA casinos. when you say 'should' be checking turn - not everyone plays the way you do. based on your posts i'd wager that very few people play like you do :P
Really? I never see tags barrel A-high vs other tags. Which is a mistake 'cause i've won lots of pots intending to c/f rivers.

The river is so bad for his value hands that we beat that I wouldn't hate c/f, though I could never do it in game speed 'cause our hand is so underrep'd.
river decision Quote
02-18-2015 , 06:02 PM
This is almost the bottom of your SD-able range right? (worse would be...A8s?)

Is raising an option? (Just wondering.) I guess we're not bluffing out very many better hands. (Jx? TT?)

What if we held KTs? Anyone vote c/raising river (and repping nothing? )
river decision Quote
02-19-2015 , 08:13 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ZOMG_RIGGED!
raise flop?
think that'd be pretty bad. and on the river, i call just because ak makes up such a big part of villain's range (as compared to it being a fold though if say, you opened in the cutoff instead of the farjack).
river decision Quote
02-19-2015 , 08:22 AM
so i guess i go as low as 22 on the river (assuming i made it there).
river decision Quote
02-19-2015 , 11:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigBadBabar
they don't barrel off AK in your game? i see it all the time in all the USA casinos. when you say 'should' be checking turn - not everyone plays the way you do. based on your posts i'd wager that very few people play like you do :P
The play I normally see is the guy who three barrels AK on 872-8-3, moans as he says "good call" and rolls over the best hand.
river decision Quote
02-19-2015 , 12:42 PM
If the Q didn't roll off, AK is an easy river check. When the Q hits, AK is very close to bottom of LOLjack's range. 4 TKs are barrel bluffs; 4 ATs are x/f (there should be a x/f range). 16 combos of AK are kinda nebulous, and could fit into many different buckets.

If you play in games where people mindlessly double and triple barrel random parts of their range, then sure, 99 is strong enough to call here. IME, people generally play their 3b range very face-up.
river decision Quote
02-23-2015 , 04:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigBadBabar
they don't barrel off AK in your game? i see it all the time in all the USA casinos.
I don't.

River is tough spot. I tend to call but never feel good about it.
river decision Quote
02-23-2015 , 05:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tiger415
folding can be a very big mistake.
If your read is right and your math is right this can't be true. It can only be a small mistake. The difference in your win rate between calling and folding this river will be small, period. It's a close situation. Generally speaking, in a close river decision you want to err on the side of calling. In a close preflop decision you want to err on the side of folding.
river decision Quote
02-28-2015 , 11:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChuckFinley
The river is so bad for his value hands that we beat that I wouldn't hate c/f, though I could never do it in game speed 'cause our hand is so underrep'd.
this was my exact first thought
river decision Quote
03-02-2015 , 05:33 PM
Bet the flop, bet the turn, check fold the river.

As played, check calling on the flop is pretty good. The turn...you might as well C/R if you were just going to check call.
river decision Quote
03-03-2015 , 04:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spirit-of-Wisdom
Bet the flop, bet the turn, check fold the river.

As played, check calling on the flop is pretty good. The turn...you might as well C/R if you were just going to check call.
This post is so full of either No or mixed lines it's hard to tell
river decision Quote

      
m