i think villain views me as tight and respects my play, so his 3b range is definitely tighter here. I'll say it can range anywhere from 7.4% (88+,ATs+,KQs,AJo+) to 10.6% (77+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,AJo+,KQo).
in both cases, i know he'll cbet every flop 100%,
Quote:
Originally Posted by ZOMG_RIGGED!
raise flop?
so hand equity vs. 100% cbet range on jc8c7h flop:
99 vs. 7.4% 3bet range: 47.647%
99 vs. 10.6% 3bet range: 50.127%
i think k/c'ing flop to bluff catch is the best option.
the turn is where it gets interesting, since I do know villain likes to go for thin values. I'm not sure what he knows about my post flop play and I'm not good enough to establish a favorable game dynamics with knowing what I know (e.g. villain might adjust if i over exploit). My range consists of a lot of gutshots and middle pairs on this board texture after just k/c'ing the flop. If I were to guess, he'd probably assume I'll k/r most of my value hands on the flop. Due to that, I'm guessing he's likely to double barrel the majority of his narrow range thinking it's for value. To exploit that I should delay value hands until the turn. 99 is not one of them.
anyways on hand equity vs. 100% double barrel range on jc8c7s7h:
99 vs. 7.4% 3bet range: 47.207%
99 vs. 10.6% 3bet range: 51.754% (not enough to k/r for value. also read is not strong enough to confirm 100% double barrel.)
the river comes the nasty Q which completes some bluffs and villain bets again after being checked to. IDK how many AK is in villain's triple barrel range, but simply taking it out from both a 7.4% 3bet and 10.6% 3bet range reduces the equity of 99 to 7.627% and 12.209% respectfully. If villain does triple barrel 100% then my equity with 99 is 27.333% and 25.98%.
I need just 11.76% to profitably call. Intuitively it seems like an ez call now by just using the hand vs. range method since if villain turns just a few AK into bluffs then I can profitably call with 99. Calling is at worst a slight mistake while folding can be a very big mistake.
Applying what I typed at game speed is the hard part. Typing this out definitely helps build my intuition. Knowing whether what I typed is a good or bad plan is another issue!
A tougher decision would probably be with AK. Worse hands I'd imagine bringing to the river would be A9cc, ATcc, AK, a8s, and maybe some AT/AQ. Maybe someone can shine upon how to bluffcatch at 7.5:1 since bluffs by villain here seem less polarizing and more merged (e.g. so if I bluff catch with AK, I chop a lot of times and I may even lose if I try bluffcatching with AT).
Last edited by tiger415; 02-18-2015 at 07:49 AM.