Villain is a good thinking lag. We have lots of hours together and he probably thinks of me as a solid unspectacular tag. SB is a tight TAG

40/80 4 handed

Villain opens co. I 3b JhJc otb. SB caps. Call call.

Flop Kh4h2d

SB Bets. Villain Raises. I call. SB calls.

Turn 7c

SB chks. Villain bets. I call. SB folds

River Qh

Villain bets. I raise.

I think a good player can fold AK or AA here with your image, giving you a flush or possibly QQ.

I almost always shrug and call with those hands with so many bets in the pot. But I'm not good and most people aren't either.

So, file this under "check raise bluff the top of our folding range on the river to balance our value check raises"? Good for metagame reasons, I guess, though I'm not sure this is the best spot for it, given the narrow range situation you alluded to.

Given you're unlikely to wait till the river with your value raises (ie AK+) in this situation, you're credibly repping A-high flushes (9 combos, though some of them can be discounted assuming you're not 3-betting Ah2h preflop), QQ and KQ. Maybe that's enough combos....

If I'm villain here with AA or AK (this is the only part of his range we don't beat that's considering folding), I think I'm good if I have Ah in my hand...

I don't think this this was a balancing play. I think this is a spot were the hero was calling down and then was given a reputable opportunity to make a play on the river.

I think it's likely hero 3 bets all suited Aces pre. I also think hero may 3 bet some of those Aces with a heart draw on the flop to clean up outs. I think he has more non Ace flush draws in his flop calling range.

Given the size of the pot and heros read bluff raising the river doesn't have to work often. The CO would have heard from a better made hand prior to the river so it does look like a flush or QQ's. The other thing this play has going for it is that if hero is bluffing, he is pretty much turning a made hand into a bluff of which not many combos exist. I suppose a good hand reader could talk himself into a fold here.

Can someone explain why we are targeting AA/AK here? I feel like KJ, KT, K9s, possibly even worse suited kings are in his range here given the action.

I guess I don't get it. Did you think you were ahead on the flop and turn, or were you floating in hopes of a good bluff opportunity later?

I also don't think your image as stated is likely correct, unless you play differently in the 40 than the 20 and villain has only played with you there.

If you were trying The Pincus, the time to raise was the turn.

Really comes down to just how "unspectacular" and TAG he thinks you are IMO. All in all, I like this play better in a full game than 4 handed as, unless you're super confident in both your read on him and his read on you, I don't think you're ever folding out a better hand in a super short game.

He thinks he is ahead on flop / turn often enough to not fold. River heart an another over card sorta destroys that possibility so now he is at top of his folding range. This is certainly the right hand to do this with in his range but there are exploitative reasons to think it might not work. Overall I like it but I probably wouldn't have tried it #nitvalley

You're right. Given the preflop action, villain's range isn't actually that narrow (I thought villain had capped PF, my mistake).

So, our original plan was to call down (meaning we think we're ahead enough of the time given pot size and ranges) until the Qh hit, which we think hits our perceived range much harder than villain's while simultaneously lowering the rank of our actual holding such that we should now bluff raise? I guess this will work enough times that I can get on board w/ this (especially if villain has a tendency to b/f rivers).

as villain's range gets stronger, our bluffs come from higher up in our range. and as avoidthe9to5 pointed out in another thread, when faced with a bet, we bluff with the top of our folding range. when faced with a check, we bluff the absolute bottom of our range.

it looks pretty strange in black and white. i like that we have the J to block villain's flush combos.

i think you have the definition of good player wrong.

i don't think good players fold much in limit HOLDTHEM.

i would be surprised to see a good player bet fold with top pair in this huge pot vs. any one they think is good/decent. bet fold is a play we usually make vs players that are very passive and predictable, no?

Maybe this is just level 0 thinking here, but part of me just thinks, if I was villain:

• It's 4-handed
• I haz at least a good pair (K or Q, otherwise easier fold)
• Opponent (hero) may have TAG image, but capable of bluff-raising river.
• Call

Maybe I just need to channel my inner ProfessorBen-in-10k-limit to make hero folds...

Fwiw I wouldn't do this without the Jh in my hand and even then only rarely. So maybe 1 combo vs 21 value hands.

that makes me feel better. seems pretty reasonable imo.

1. I think even strong players will only raise flop/barrel here with big K or flush draw. Would exploitatively fold more and bluff river less.

2. Are you 3b'ing all Kx on the flop?

I would coldcall and call down some Kx on the flop. K5s-K7s look like good candidates, especially with BDFD. Further, I would fold some Kx here on river heart, so JJ would be in my gold range.

You would only raise JJ if one of them were a heart or you would never raise any hand here unless you had the Jh in your hand?

If the former, it's more than 1 combo.

If the latter, that seems extremely unlikely. For instance, why wouldn't you do it if you had the Ah in your hand?

I guess it's pretty hard to have the Ah without having the nuts but {JJh, very low frequency} seems like an unlikely bluffing range for a guy who is making this play.

It's 3 combos but I said I'd do it rarely even with the Jh in my hand so I rounded to 1 combo.

Got it, I didn't realize 1 was an estimate based on frequency. I don't calculate bluff combos that way but I think I'm going to start.

I just don't think this bluff is going to work often enough to make with any hand, without a specific read that villain bet-folds river way too often. What can villain have that has you beat but will fold here?

If you wouldn't even try this all the times you had JhJ, what made you do it this time?

Personally I don't even really understand the flop call though. Doesn't seem likely you are good often enough to call, but if so why not reraise instead of call?

Mostly the way I was running vs how he was running in the game.

If you really just fold two jacks when a lag raises the flop I dunno what to tell you. Also what does 3betting accomplish really?

Rob, back door flush draw.

When you raise with a bluff as a balance to your value range, you are not looking for a fold really. You do not care whether they fold or call (indifference). When you play against good players and turn over a better hand every time when you raise, you will get a lot of fold in the future that you do not want. To prevent this, you raise will some bluffs. In this case if he happens to have the flush and call and see what you raise with, he will have to call you in the future. In this sense it is a protection to your value raises. The whole debate whether you can make better hands fold is beside the point. You can not argue for a fold when you bluff and argue for a call when you have value. You do not care. You always raise with value but you can not only always raise with value. When you bluff and get called, consider it you have raised with a range of mostly value and made money as an expectation.

Very good way of saying it