Live 50. Villain is playing tons of hands tonight; giving back a lot of his earlier run good (it was impossible for me to win a 75/25 against him). Earlier opened 42s HJ, which is loose even by his standards. His weird donks usually (but not always) indicate improvement, as sometimes he just donks a hand that he doesn't want to check call. Can lay down pairs, and earlier he check call, check folded JJ to me on JT9-K-7.

My story tonight has basically been supreme card dead nittery followed up by somehow still not having it at showdown. Not sure how this affects other players in pots with me.

I hold A 4

Villain opens CO, I 3 bet BTN, villain calls

Flop (7.5 SB): 6 5 2

He checks, I bet, he calls

Turn (4.75 BB): Q

He donks, I call

River (6.75 BB): K

He bets, I raise.

I feel like he has a queen a lot and it's quite a lot to ask him to fold it. It's not that he never will, just that I think we shouldn't be bluffing a lot of combos. Do you ever have AJ of spades in this spot? I would not call with that hand on river so that's where I'd start my bluffing range and it wouldn't be many combos.

Why would I bluff with the As in my hand when a hand like AsTs is a hand I'd want to generate folds from?

Seems optimistic of you to think he's gonna fold a Q here getting 9:1. But perhaps you think he has a middle pair here and was trying to (semi)bluff you on the turn? I probably would've folded to his turn bet.

Overall, I don't like the way you played this hand but live reads are very important so perhaps it worked out for you

I usually find that live noobs donk the turn with weak draws more often than anything else. Maybe more so in no limit where its almost like a block bet. But in general I find turn donks to be more on the weaker side.

This wasnt at foxwoods was it?

The major problem with the raise is what hands raise the river that don't raise the turn? And with a flush draw

Ak, kx (maybe with spades)?

Unless villain has a really weak donk range on the turn, doesn't look like a good spot to bluff

I think river is good but turn is kinda close. And I pay off every donk bet ever

AK, delayed AA/KK/KQ. Maybe like KsJs.

Preflop could be something to talk about too. I think hands like this are fine to three bet against gambler player types, but I can be convinced otherwise.

If a donk from him usually means improvement it seems weird that he'd check call flop and then donk turn and barrel river with that hand.

The fact that he xc xfolded 2nd set is huge. Shows he's trying to 'make reads' and doesn't bet or fold according to GTO / where he is in his range. Exploitatively overbluffing is very good.

I should give the whole hand to expand on this.

LAG opens CO V 3 SB I cc AQ BB LAG calls

JT9 he bets we call

K he checks I bet LAG folds he calls

River whatever he check folds (so I guess VB KJ would be bad here huh?)

So I've a pretty strong range here, but clearly I wasn't expecting anyone to fold JJ here ever.

I think you played the hand fine, though if you are raising all A3s and A4s, I think you are probably over bluffing the river from a GTO perspective. I assume your river value range will be mostly AK with some possible KsXs or delayed AQo/KQo/QQ thrown in? Maybe KJo depending on how loosely you're calling the turn. So since you don't have too many value hands, you can't really raise too many bluffs. You want your bluffs to come from the top of your folding range....which I assume is something around the Js9s/JsTs/A3s/A4s threshold (that is assuming you don't raise the Js9s or JsTs on the turn).

I think the combination of gutshot, overcard, and chance your hand is best make this a call getting almost 6:1 against a potentially wide range.

I definitely want to avoid raise bluffing hands with spades in them, and I also like having a hand that blocks 43s (which is in his range per my read). A4s seems like a good place to start, as that's only 3 combos once I drop As4s.

It's possible villain folds as high as a Q here. Bluff everything.

I don't think preflop is close. When people open cutoff I am pretty liberal from the button. They often open a steal range and then have no clue how to play OOP vs a 3 bet. Plus you want to train them to fold so you can steal more from button

I think image and history are important. When you are running bad, I feel ppl look you up more. Villain folds JJ once but likely looks you up more after.

One more thing that I just thought about was while I agree w/ PP that the fact he check-folded second set (even if it had shriveled up w/ multiple 4 straights and a BDFD coming in) in a spot where his range is narrow, but filled with weaker holdings (including the two lower sets on the turn, KJs, AA) + some past history is plenty of evidence to suggest that he over-folds, especially given the width of his ranges, there's also the factor of "he just made a big fold". I know I mentally don't feel like folding very much after I've already made a huge laydown that I'm not comfortable with, so I can only imagine what that urge is like to someone who isn't playing the player as much. On the same token, it's probably a lot better to bluff someone if they've been paying off bets in medium to large pots fairly routinely throughout the night and might be tired of calling down.

This was Foxwoods. 50/100 is the new big H game, now that $10 chips are dead. I'm personally happy about the change.

my first thought upon reading the hand was: given player description, "meh, i just fold the turn."

i might be too nitty in some spots facing donk bets, but this one i like a turn fold given how this player is described.

i'm stuck on the "potentially wide range" aspect. the description was "usually but not always" in terms of donk=improvement.

when he has a queen, we're getting 6:1 on a basically 6.5:1 shot if we assume every single out is good, which it isn't always.

"not always" may also include hands like a 5 he played weird and similar pairs that he now wants to bet along w/ hands with a 4 or an oesd or something that he wants to use the queen to bluff (these will obv fold rivers to your raise as well). so, yes sometimes ace high will be good (though i think if you want to use that, then you have to call river some % of the time).

so most of the time we're barely getting odds to call, and some of those times we're getting no odds to call (rarely but they'll be there given the description). and sometimes (Again rarely) we have the best hand.

like i said, i might be too nitty here but i'd probably just fold the turn so i don't have to think about a) how close is that 0.5, and b) what % of the time to call the river, mostly.

EDIT: NOTE, there are other times where i definitely take the worst of it on the 6.5 vs. 6 thing on purpose, for example: calling a river donk in a blind battle w/ an effectively a high hand when my opponent may not be bluffing more than 1 in 7 times. but that has a specific design to it. here it's strictly an odds question and then what to do on the river. we're not balancing a strategy against this guy nor demonstrating that we are for others at the table.

The thing about these spots is that if it's close to a call assuming he's never bluffing, it usually doesn't take much bluffing to move it to a call. And if he gives up on the river (with worse hands) enough that you can actually fold the river, it makes it an even easier call on the turn. That's worth a lot.

He isn't folding QT, Q9, etc.

I don't buy that for a second. At least not to that level of confidence.