Early position player raises a top x% hand. Say top 15%. Folds to the BB, getting 3.5-1 on a call. What % of hands should BB call?

gotta give SOME idea of how he plays postflop. unless you've never seen the guy, in which case you wouldn't know he opens 15% (which, btw, is a bit wide for UTG, prob about right for UTG+2, but that's 1 EP position and assumes a 9 handed table), and then it's a different look.

that said, here's where i'd start. the hot and cold equity says 78% call; however, that's nutso in this spot. i'd target 60% as a baseline, maybe a bit under:

1. all pairs
2. all aces
3. all suited cards (literally)
4. all connected >5 offsuit cards down to
4a. k7o
4b. q8o
4c. j8o
4d. t8o
5. MAYBE 97o type hands; however, i'd err on the side of losing those as they play worse than even 82s in some spots.

now, the tougher the opponent is postflop, the quicker i lose the crap suited cards. those are the fillers that get you to around 55-58%.

if i really wanted to go through it, maybe i'd trade some suited cards for some offsuit cards, but i don't think there'd be a ton of substitutions given the type of hands my opponent has (usually big cards so if anything i'd trade like j2s for 86o, for example, but i'm not removing K2s for sure, so really not much substitution room in the realm of "shared suited big cards").

i know people who i'd say play very well who both a) play way more hands than this in this spot, and b) who play way fewer hands (down to maybe 45%-50%). both i think can make money as part of an overall gameplan.

Suited (148):
0 gapper - 54s+ and up
1 gapper - 75s and up
2 gapper - j8s and up
3 gapper - q8s and up
A high - any
K high - probably k5s+

Unsuited (168):
any broadway
A high - a5o, a7o+ (I guess a5, a7-a9 is up for debate even with close to 40% hit and cold.

Pairs (78):
Any

Other hands up for debate I think are other suited cards. I know some people defend suited hands quite liberally. If villain cbets 100%, I'll defend connected cards and suited cards more liberally.

I feel like rio with ace high is high where a lot should just be tossed. Also it's probably better to be conservative.

I guess my question is am I tossing too much? I have no 2016 online database to back up this range and I also don't have a clue how light I'm suppose to defend at 3.5:1. The range above is 31-32%.

This spot also rarely occurs at fr live (at least a few cold callers or a 3b) so under/overdefending probably will never be a huge mistake. I don't know what the inflection point is between tossing and calling. I assume it's somewhere at ~35% hot and cold. A lot of hands are probably close to the 0 ev mark if I had to guess.

if you're defending 60% vs. 15%, by the time you get to HJ you fold nothing?

i defend like 45% with more middle weighted stuff

i'm defending all suited cards unless the raiser is tighter and raising UTG or UTG+1.

the hands that get added are the offsuitted gappers as the position of the initial pfr improves.

a raise from the button and i'm indeed calling w/ just about all hot/cold equity profitable hands, maybe a few less, so 75%. so i go from ~56%->75% as position improves.

this very significantly depends on how the other person plays though, so again, opening 15% is pretty wide if you're doing it from UTG, which is what i've assumed.

here is what 15% looks like:

Pairs:
- AA-55

Suited cards:
- AK-A8s
- KQs-K9s
- QJs-QTs
- JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s

Offsuit cards:
- AK-ATo
- KQ-KJo

so, uh, yea. the biggest issue w/ my strategy vs. such a loose EP opening range is the shared cards for the big suited cards and the possibility of having undercards to my bottom pair mean my opponent has a set since he's opening down to 55 (unless you make some adjustments to my assumptions to get to 15% by adding worse suited or worse offsuit hands, which i don't think many people would wanna do).

personally i open like 8-9% UTG and get to 15% by like MP (i guess lojack?). by BU i'm opening just under 40%, so it gets pretty high pretty fast once you get to the HJ/CO/BU but that also depends on the blinds.

overall, i'm way happier playing more hands in later positions.

so if i'm crafting a defense against MYSELF, i'm tightening up quite a bit on the suited hands since they're too often in really bad shape. but vs. 15% UTG/EP open? not much is in really bad shape unless i share big cards, which is indeed a concern. and i guess in reality i am folding 92s, T2s, 82s, but tossing ALL those out only really brings you down to like 50% at most. so defending 31% vs. a 15% EP open is way tight imo.

15% is pretty loose at a FR game with those range. Probably better to construct a BB defense range with a tighter UTG range of 99+/ KQo / AJs+ / Aqo

Yes, 15% is very loose for UTG in full ring. That's moot.

My plan is to project what to defend against various opening ranges. Focusing on the 'x%' part is really more important.

sorry, i was thinking vs utg full ring. vs a 15%, i'm defending about 57%. pretty much dumping a5o-, k6o-

holy ****, if the 2+2 field is overdefending like this... i should increase my flop cbet frequency.

imho, yall are insane to defend that much vs a 15% open. XD

Pff. Most of 2+2 already cbets 100%

My original thought was to defend a smidge more than twice opener's range. But, that got me thinking that my defend range against early positions was way too low given our good price.

At least as far as lice poker is concerned I think this issue is important. It people likely focus to much on range vs range equity and not enough on how they play lost flop. If some genius opens utg with too 10% you certainly don't want to play same range as a breaken player that's st least read enough books to know what to open UTG

I agree. Bet to induce often and don't fold often imo.

HaHa agree. Defending any ace and/or any two suited vs utg range is crazy

so you're at ~35ish%?

A8o,Axs, pairs,K7s,K9o, Q8s,Q9o,J8, T7,97,86s,75s,65s

What's that %?

I think defaults are nice. Have a default against a good opponent. Adjust from there the more terrible they are.

That's ~28%. I'm guessing you just pulled that out of the air, since its strange to defend q9o but not TJo. Also not sure if that's against a 15% range or UTG FR range, which would be significantly tighter.

Sorry just my crummy notation. j8 implied I defend J9 and JT too

22+, A2s+, K7s+, QTs+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, A8o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J8o+, T7o+, 97o+
is a 34% range. Not sure if I got yours exactly.

Hot/cold vs equilab 15%
Equity Win Tie
UTG 58.25% 56.70% 1.54% { 77+, A7s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo }
BB 41.75% 40.21% 1.54% { 22+, A2s+, K7s+, QTs+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, A8o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J8o+, T7o+, 97o+ }

Here's a 12% range
Equity Win Tie
UTG 60.15% 58.73% 1.42% { 77+, A8s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, AJo+, KJo+ }
BB 39.85% 38.43% 1.42% { 22+, A2s+, K7s+, QTs+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, A8o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J8o+, T7o+, 97o+ }

^^ see now, Folding T7s/q9s but playing T7o/q9o just doesn't make sense. Donkey's stated range requires more personal interpretation, else it would be way too many off suit hands

If I wrote I play T7o it is implied I play T7s, come on now

Wait people are seriously defending 42s against a reasonable player's FR UTG open?

Steel wheel and no one is reasonable