I think when he checks behind this flop, he either has a monster or an airball. I mean, some guys will check back 99 or something, but not a whole lot. When we check the turn, we get more value out of his airballs and lose less to his monsters. And with the , we don't even risk anything, he's basically drawing dead with his airballs.

I'd classify quads as a monster.

I'm obviously one of the jerk offs in this forum, but preflop is just bad and wrong every time against a bad lag in the cutoff. raise, you have queens and if your read is right, he/she doesn't care.

*sigh* no

i appreciate the asterisks...as well as the sighs. against bad players, who by definition don't really care about much, why do we disguise hands and not get bets in?

First of all, everyone else at the table is watching you play too, not just the opponent. And they do care about stuff. Secondly, we're going to get our bets in on the next street by check-raising almost any flop.

the games you play at seem horrible

+1

Personally could go either way pre.

What's the consideration for what he can call the turn but not the river with? It would seem he'd have a diamond, a slowplayed Ace, and possibly a smaller pair(but i'd think he'd bet flop)

I think there are more hands in his range that could stab at the pot on the river rather than call a bet. But I don't know this player, maybe he's the type to hero call with K high here before he'd bet it?

Er yeah. For some reason I thought the flop was A-3-3.

Anyway, I think the more interesting question is what do we do if we c/c the turn and improve on the river.

I think we have tiny value vs bad lag on the river and we can check/call vs unfinished flash draw.

All true under assumption that his check back hand really does not include weak made hands (pocket pairs mostly) as well as hands that he thinks have outs and will pay off hero's turn bet. I don't know how strong this assumption is, quite read dependent I guess. I do admit I am somewhat paranoid about missing value OOP and need to get better at identifying spots like this where betting is not necessarily optimal to extract value. Nice OP, Alan.
Pgcounty: PJ is right IMO

BTW, I will say that IME, many Oaks players make the most ridiculous flop check-backs HU that I've seen. To the point that they start to donk flops with like top pair and FSDR and take bet-call, bet lines, etc.

You can either bet the turn or check the turn. If you bet the turn and he calls you bet the river every time.

Even bad lags don't tard-cap as much anymore and might shut down to the preflop 3 bet with a hand like TT and just call it down. If you call preflop you can C/R a rag flop and 3 bet their turn raise.