I mean I think it's closer than you think it is, OTR, but I'm still working out general approximations bc I can't get two "authorities appealed to" here earlier to agree on a contracted "get to river in this manner range" so that we can approximate what the bottom 10% of that set of hands is.
With a wider range of DC-hands facing one bet on the river I agree with you, fwiw. DC's and/or a correct bet-when-checked to turn range is both an interesting and open question tho, imo