Quote:
Originally Posted by Chasqui
If you change your mind to think he may bluff, count how many combos he bluffs and compare to how many value combos he bets and let that (and the pot) determine if you should call. You can try keeping/removing your "would check draws on the turn" read.
It's a very simple exercise that will teach you how to calculate these things and give you a feel for how far off you are either way.
Assume Villain's range 36.65% (Total 486 Hands) 22+,A2s+,K4s+,Q7s+,J8s+,T8s+,97s+,87s,76s,65s,A2o+ ,K9o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o
On turn 300.5 Hands beat Hero's QQ (ties with the other QQ)
185.5 Hands for potential bluff...Among the 185, the following two portions have to be discounted.
Villain would check back turn often with inside straight draws like he did before, about 54 hands in this portion.
Hands like 66-JJ, he probably check back some of them. Assume 50%, that is about 15 hands.
This ends up with 117 Hands left for Villain to bluff. The value vs bluff odd of Villain's turn bet 2.57 : 1. This is lots of bluff of course.
Villain's turn bet lays a 3:1 pot odds for Hero to call.
River card doesn't change things much, but the odd becomes 5:1.
Seems like folding on turn is close. On river it is closer to call than fold?