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Old 02-06-2012, 09:50 PM   #16
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Re: Overpair!

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Originally Posted by goofball View Post
getting 23:1 you fold without the Td?
I mean I understand that this is Commerce, but how can we possibly not be up against a flush draw and a hand better then Tens given that turn action? Need more than 23:1 for a 1 outer.
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Old 02-06-2012, 10:27 PM   #17
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Re: Overpair!

You say sb doesn't go crazy late in the hand, but somehow having a worse hand and donking this turn seems pretty crazy
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Old 02-06-2012, 10:39 PM   #18
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I don't know what the chances are that this particular villain caps 55 pf, but on the turn 55 seems quite possible.
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Old 02-07-2012, 06:08 AM   #19
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Re: Overpair!

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Originally Posted by J_Locke View Post
You say sb doesn't go crazy late in the hand, but somehow having a worse hand and donking this turn seems pretty crazy
having a better hand and playing it like this is almost equally as crazy no?
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Old 02-07-2012, 06:24 AM   #20
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Re: Overpair!

What do you think the SB's 4 bet range is here? Many guys fitting that description are capping just about everything they raise with in this spot. It could be any pair, all the suited broadways, many suited A's, and big A's. He's likely donking all his pairs and and flush draws. I think that we're ahead of his turn donking range enough, to raise one more time.

If he 3x, we'll be getting at least 17:1 and perhaps as much as 21:1, so it's probably worth a turn call, especially if we have the Td.

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Originally Posted by ImAllInNow View Post
I mean I understand that this is Commerce, but how can we possibly not be up against a flush draw and a hand better then Tens given that turn action? Need more than 23:1 for a 1 outer.
We're likely up against a flush draw, but we don't have to necessarily be behind.

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Originally Posted by J_Locke View Post
You say sb doesn't go crazy late in the hand, but somehow having a worse hand and donking this turn seems pretty crazy
The SB donking with a worse hand here would not be considered crazy at Commerce.

Last edited by Barry; 02-07-2012 at 06:31 AM.
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Old 02-07-2012, 08:38 AM   #21
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Re: Overpair!

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Originally Posted by Barry View Post
What do you think the SB's 4 bet range is here? Many guys fitting that description are capping just about everything they raise with in this spot. It could be any pair, all the suited broadways, many suited A's, and big A's. He's likely donking all his pairs and and flush draws. I think that we're ahead of his turn donking range enough, to raise one more time.
This seems incredibly optimistic.
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Old 02-07-2012, 09:00 AM   #22
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Re: Overpair!

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Originally Posted by drbk2 View Post
having a better hand and playing it like this is almost equally as crazy no?
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Originally Posted by drbk2 View Post
I think 3 betting the flop is a slightly better line with JJ+, although the line the sb took if he has JJ+ isn't that bad. I don't really see players who fit sb's description play JJ+ like this all that often though.
So, which is it?

To me, this hand is so super read dependent that it becomes an exercise more of what the local custom is among the fish. Is it to donk here again with a one pair hand <TT (which I am having a hard time finding many of that wanted to 4! PF) or to take this line with TT-KK hoping to fade the ace on the turn or whatever?

That all being said--I would just take the call down line, and possibly fold a flush-completing river. It's probably not the best line but I think it's probably good enough without a read to not dwell on too much.
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Old 02-07-2012, 09:08 AM   #23
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Re: Overpair!

raise sounds good to me
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Old 02-07-2012, 12:11 PM   #24
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Re: Overpair!

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Originally Posted by ImAllInNow View Post
This seems incredibly optimistic.
I agree in a vacuum and against a lot of players it does. Many folks think "I'm not going to 3 bet the flop because of the flush draw. Ah, the flush didn't get there, I'll bet the turn." Against those types, it's a pretty clear fold.

But I've played against guys like the SB, they don't think that way and will donk the turn much wider than with sets and big pairs. They like the donk semi bluff better than the turn c/r semi bluff.
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Old 02-07-2012, 02:58 PM   #25
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Re: Overpair!

I don't see how we can be considering anything but a turn raise in a 13 bet pot where we have over-pair.
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Old 02-07-2012, 03:47 PM   #26
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Re: Overpair!

Hey guys, I screwed up a bit -- the turn was the 5s, not the 6s.

Sorry if that changes anything...
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Old 02-07-2012, 04:18 PM   #27
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Re: Overpair!

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Originally Posted by private joker View Post
Hey guys, I screwed up a bit -- the turn was the 5s, not the 6s.

Sorry if that changes anything...
A2 just got there. And more 2 pair combo's

I'm still raising though.
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Old 02-08-2012, 01:36 AM   #28
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Re: Overpair!

Personally, I call flop, see if players behind me raise and fold if SB 3!. If player behind raises and SB calls, I might be weird and 3! too. Fold to most raises on turn after I cbet if SB checks.
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