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Marginal Multiway Spot Marginal Multiway Spot

01-05-2015 , 12:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by lawdude
My first reaction to the preflop question is that we are not playing this hand to try and flop a pair of 7's, although we will obviously occasionally win that way....

My first reaction to this hand is someone(no offense jd) wants to gamble, and play hands. Doesn't hate money like most of the fish, may even be looking to win, but not to pay the bills, just to keep score. Maybe subconsciously putting themselves into tough spots to have to "play" their way out of them.
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01-05-2015 , 02:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by prototypepariah
My first reaction to this hand is someone(no offense jd) wants to gamble, and play hands. Doesn't hate money like most of the fish, may even be looking to win, but not to pay the bills, just to keep score. Maybe subconsciously putting themselves into tough spots to have to "play" their way out of them.
Well, it's an implied odds issue. See this classic 2+2 thread for the basic probabilities of various draws with suited connectors. If you work out all the math, you have about a 9 percent chance of either flopping a 2 pair or better hand or flopping a flush or OESD draw that then hits. Add on top of that the chances of flopping a pair that turns into 2 pair or trips, and the chances of flopping a gutshot or backdoor draw that comes in, and you are probably up around the same percentage chance that a pocket pair has to flop a set.

Which means, just like with a pocket pair, what you really want is position and the opportunity to make a big pot (some number, such as 10 or 15 times the price of your pre-flop investment) when you hit to "pay for" the times that you miss and your reverse implied odds.

One of the interesting aspects of this is that your implied odds are actually somewhat better when your opponent has a narrow range that is committed to showdown. Against my somewhat LAGTAG opening ranges, for instance, 9c7c is almost as much of an equity underdog as it is against a tight raising range, but the difference is, I'm playing some stuff that can fold and not pay you off when you hit your draw. The nittier players can't fold their hands as often.
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01-11-2015 , 08:54 PM
I would just call the flop and see what come's out on turn then re evaluate.
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