Live 20/40, pretty good, passive game. CO is a good player, and Btn is a bad lag who surprisingly didn't raise anywhere in this hand. The rest of the field is somewhere in loose-passive territory.

I have T9o in the big blind.

Utg, MP1, CO, and Btn limp, sb completes, and I check. 6 small bets to the flop.

Flop: 8 9 2 rainbow

checked to the CO who bets, Btn folds, sb calls, I check/raise, utg cold calls, mp folds, CO 3bets, sb and I call. 7.5 BB to the turn.

Turn: 6, no flush draw

checked to CO who bets, sb and I call. 10.5 BB to the river.

River: Q

Checked to CO who bets, sb folds.

Weird hero line. What's up with the turn check after check raising the flop?

Why aren't we just betting the flop?

i think i would have just bet the flop too.

as played, donking the turn would be pretty horrible imo. i think you played it fine, and i don't see how you could possibly be good on the river

CO 3bet my c/r on the flop. That's why I checked turn.

I checked the flop to c/r and thin the field (not saying it's right...but that was my plan knowing the btn had been very laggy)

nice hand. river shrug - you are good very rarely but you are getting a delicious price.

I don't see how your hand is good on the river. I mean, the only thing I can come up with that you would possibly beat is 76 suited, and that assumes CO plays 76 suited preflop here and doesn't check it behind at some point. Everything else either crushed you on the flop or got there on the turn or river (T7 suited, JT).

I think it's fine to exploitatively fold the river here, despite the big pot. And I never say that generally.

I don't even think it's an exploitative fold.

In thinking about my comment, I agree. It's just a plain old fold.

Of course it is.

if there's a chance he has 97s here and would play it that aggressively, call.

if not, easy fold. the bottom of his range ties you (T9) and everything else either got there or has you crushed

I think you played the hand well and should call the river.

It looks like there's a mix of fold and call river. I folded, which feels right due to the scarce number of worse hands he can have, but still uncomfortable due to the size of the pot. I guess this one fall in Tommy Angelo's grey area.

Thanks much for the comments.

I actually think the fold is very clearly correct. The fact this is a good 20-40 opponent should mean that he both doesn't have a lot of hands that would 3 bet and 3 barrel as a bluff in the first place and he should actually be checking behind at some point and/or not 3 betting the flop with showdown value hands we beat.

Even in a big pot, the reasoning has to be more than "well he might have 97" when the opponent is intelligent. What do people think his actual range looks like here, and what do people think the actual probability that the villain would take this line with a hand we beat is?

Against a bad player who might spazz, sure, I look him up. But against someone with a brain this is a clear river fold IMO.

So did UTG magically vanish?

This river is a spot where it completes a lot of hands, so some hands better than yours are checking behind (A9/K9/J9). If a good player were to bluff here, I'd think it'd have to be with a hand like 76s/97s, and only a fraction of the time. (Bluffing every combo seems very -EV). He could alternatively take some of the worst hands in his flop betting range and turn them into bluffs (things like A2s)

What's your flop c/raising range look like here? The wider you can c/raise the flop, the more inclined I am to call this river. What of the other caller's ranges?