Bold is a huge, huge, huge leak. I'll highlight an example of a hand I once played as to why.
Decent LAG opens EMP (w/ a wider than optimal range, hence LAG), a cold call, I 3! KQ, they call.
Flop AJxtt he x/r I call.
Turn brick I raise to get him off a weak Ace or Jx w/ FD. He 3 bets. Do the math; I'm getting 12.25:1 on a call now and given that he's unlikely to be rebluffing a FD against my represented range, my outs are clean. So, I now have to call. My questionable turn bluff put me in a situation where it's now profitable to call.
However, that doesn't make the previous decision profitable.
To math-ify it, let's assume villain folds turn w/ P=0.05, or so rarely that my bluff just sucks. And that he three bets me w/ P=0.15, so P=0.8 that he calls. And let's make the false assumption that villain *never* has a draw, which is applicable when bet into on this texture in a multiway pot.
Fold:
0 obviously.
Call:
Since, in my hand, we've already decided villain has Ax minimum, we've 2/23 equity getting 8.25:1 and ~ 2 BB implied odds (assuming we can safely fold river in the example highlighted). This gives us an immediate EV of -0.022, making fold a marginally better decision. W/out IO, our immediate equity is -0.196 BB.
Raise:
We raise into a range that folds at 5% frequency, and our equity is the same against both his b/c and b/3 ranges (a dumb assumption obviously to say that our "outs" are the same v both ranges, but it makes the math much easier). Our immediate decision equity is:
8.25*0.05 + (9.25 * 2/23 - 2)*0.8 + (10.25 * 2/23 - 3)*0.15 = -0.394 BB.
Or think of it this way; if your never bluffing opponent bet 3 BB into a 7.25 BB pot and you had a naked gutshot w/ little implied odds and no fold equity, would you call this bet? If not, then why would you want to raise his 1 BB to 2 BB, so that you can call the third bet? Doesn't that sound spewy?
So for your hand in question, what are you trying to accomplish on the flop? A free card play? Well, you got it, and you got a nice turn card that gives you plenty of equity. Also, you want to play in ways that make people play poorly versus your range. Spew raising when everyone thinks you're spew raising isn't how to do it; you raise this flop with 22 if you want to exploit your image. Bloat and chase is a huge losing play, and you should only raise draws for two primary reasons:
1) You have the immediate equity against ranges so that you can justify raising for pure value (ex: QJs on T95r w/ BDFD 4 ways is an easy value jam).
2) You can generate folds often enough to go along w/ your equity (J9 on QTx against a range full of A-hi and PP <= 99, for example).
In this case, you're almost never taking this down uncontested, and you don't have the immediate equity to raise for value. So, your raise is a losing play.
Last edited by jdr0317; 09-17-2015 at 07:22 PM.