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Originally Posted by pgcounty
Seems like a very clear check back. Passive player is terrified of the board with a hand that either chops or beats you.
UTG bet the turn. You think he all of a sudden got spooked by an innocuous 4? If it were a good player, I'd be more worried about him trying to x/r better hands than being too scared to bet them. But this shouldn't be a concern given OP's description.
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The bet is more of a bluff than for value and you aren't folding out worse.
I don't get it. That's kind of the point of betting, isn't it? Why would you want to fold out worse?
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Other than AT in 2 spots, what hands do you beat that call?
KK, KQ, A8s come to mind, but even if utg is giving up on a bluff with no intention of calling a river bet, MP still has a sizable range that's available for targeting.
I find it's usually a mistake to underestimate the imagination of opponents when it comes to finding reasons to call instead of fold (if only because calling is so much more often correct than folding, especially at almost 10:1).