I don't know why we would single out certain hands for discounting but then give other hands their full combo weight. Based on how the hand has played out, I want to discount everything .

But I have no firsthand experience with how the Commerce 20/40 plays. Is checkraising an over plus gutshot (QT) versus a flop c-bet and call on JJ8 not unusual?

For a lag I wouldn't discount that much at all

For what it is worth, this captured my thought process when he raised.

"What the [bleep] could this be?"

Some observations:

1. I actually thought about T9, which would be a cool thing to do this with. (Can he fold out pocket queens by doing this? Maybe.) The thing about T9 is since he's folding to a 3-bet with that hand anyway, it doesn't really matter for our purposes. Might as well call and see the bluff. And by the way, even if I won the hand in that situation, credit where credit is due to any villain who would try this.

2. I didn't think enough about QT (although I'll spoil it a little by saying this isn't what he had). It's true, I could see a LAGGy villain x-raising this flop with a GSSD+1OC and then calling the 3-bet which tells him I have some sort of real hand. So I think you guys are right. That's a potential hand in his range and one we get value from.

3. The most logical hand has got to be AJ, even though it's a little weird that there was no pre-flop 3-bet. But as I said, we'd only played a couple of orbits together so he doesn't know that much about what my range might be. A cautious call out of the SB with this hand is possible. Then he raise-calls the flop with the intention of raising the turn, when a scare card comes out (I could have KJ or KK here), but then he x-raises the river. That's what I thought he had.

4. Everything else would, as Nick, bella, and others said, have been a kind of weird play by the villain. You'd think pocket jacks would 3-bet pre-flop. KJ would have been a completely weird slowplay on the turn (and also a slightly weird river raise given the A is actually a scare card to KJ and is also a card I might check behind on with some of my range), J8 merits the same comment as KJ, and Jx even more so. AK? As Bella said, LOL.

So the question really is how much screwplay do we put in a typical villain's range here, when we know little other than he's kind of LAGGy? I was completely flummoxed.

bluffing the river with T9 is spew imo


AJ doesn't make any logical sense based on your description. QT is the only hand that makes any sense. however, this is all assuming there is any logic behind the guy's play which is almost definitely a bad assumption

I don't think you guys are giving enough credence to random jx hands.

i'd give him credit for making a hopeless bluff against a very strong hand range.


This is plausible actually, I'd add AJ to his range, discounting at least a little. Even after you do that, even if you don't discount it at all, we still have a 3b, though it's much closer.

it doesn't matter how many random bluffs you but in his range, you only call about the ratio of hands that beat you to hands you'll get another bet out of.

Given that you have ruled out QT, the most likely contender, I think he had a random weird bluff or AA, followed by AJ

To be clear I did not rule out QT. I didn't think of it and consider that to be an error on my part.

I would just call and take a mental note. We have the nut low full house. People do stupid **** prefflop live, so I'd not rule out any of the higher full houses unless I have a decent amount of history with the player.

You should not be confused. My spoiler is he did not have QT. But I still think I made a mistake not including it in his range.

I agree with this. And my experience at the Commerce 20 is that this river checkraise is a) for value; and b) it's not very often for value with Jx.

With much love guys, please stop ttryingto ascribe any logic to a commerce 20 player. Plus, hero's read is based on a couple of orbits. This is a river check/raise in the commerce 20, which is always done with what the villian thinks is the nuts. That combined with the fact that everyone is scared, makes this kj or aj more than it does qt.

Unrelated to the river discussion, I am wondering about pros and cons of calling flop and raising turn line ?

Pros:
Cons: He folds everything but a jack to a turn raise, but calls down all sorts of stuff if we jam the flop. And when he does have a jack he'll check-raise the turn and we can 3-bet.

I think online this would be the way to go, but live (at least my SoCal experience) people go so aggro with non-made hands on the flop (good draws), that you gain much more value charging the draws than disguising our hands against his value hands. That is why the info we get from the river is so important, people pump stuff like QT on the flop all the time live, but they love to slowplay a hand like AJ.

Also, on the river decision, OTR15 is right that we haven't given much credence to random Jx hands BTW, which is why I'm really waffling about the river decision.