Commerce 20/40, 8 players. Villain just sat down a couple of orbits ago. I can already tell he's loose and aggressive, but he's only seen one or two showdowns so I don't have much of a read as to how well he reads hands or whether he has fancy play syndrome or how he plays his monsters.

Hero is in early position with 88. Hero raises, folds to CO (who posted after missing his blind) who calls, folds to villain in SB who calls, BB calls.

4 of us to the flop.

Flop JJ8 rainbow.
SB checks, Hero bets, CO calls, SB raises, BB folds, Hero 3-bets, CO folds, SB calls.

Turn K completing the rainbow.
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls.

River A.
SB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, Hero....?

I think it doesn't really matter what you do. You need 67% equity to raise and it's probably right around there. Probably I can be convinced of less equity and I can be talked into a call. - yeah call.

However, the most important thing is the info you get from that hand.
- If you are beat by AJ, then that shows you one of the rare live specimens that fastplays trips there. Hugely important
- If you are shown QT, also interesting flop action, really aggro with his draw.
- If you are shown something like AA, that makes his preflop calling range polarized, but his 3b range only middlish-good, leaving out premiums.
- If you are shown AK - well lol...
- Bluffraises, like T9 or something like that - really rare and interesting. He's either a total donk or somebody you should not encounter at 20/40.

3bet

His line is pretty stupid with pretty much any hand. If you're beat I'd expect to see it by KJ that slowplayed the nuts on the turn, rather than AJ. I'd still 3bet though and expect to see AK or QT or something dumb more than enough.

Yeah when he doesn't drop the hammer on the turn this is likely either KJ or QT.

He didn't 3-bet PF so we can almost definitely rule out AA or KK.

I think you can 3-bet.

Pop it one more time and call a 4 bet.

eeew, don't 3bet here. Your hand already looks like Jx from the flop, many (if not all) filled up by the river. KK/AA has also improved to a boat. Barring a read that he's maniacal, you're looking at a bigger full house way more often than not. Just call and make a note; loose/aggro does not necessarily translate to crazy/spewy.

The only hands that make sense for him are QT and AA. AJ or KK would have likely raised the turn.

There are 3 combos of AA, which should be discounted because of PF, and 16 combos of QT, so you have a 3b

why would he slowplay KJ on the turn?

This seems inconsistent. If we give credit for villain to be capable of slowing pre with AA, we should be giving him the same credit to slow play post flop with KJ/AJ.

Because he just turned the functional nuts and can slowplay one more street w/out fear or losing to a straight or AJ.

Why does hero necessarily have to Jx here?

Also, why would villain have AA/KK? He called 1 1/2 cold PF.

You have the nuts and you decide not to raise against a player who likes his hand a lot and might go crazy? Not raising this turn with KJ is terrible. Ofc, live players make some terrible slowplays, but I wouldn't assume that's what is happening here, especially with someone who appears to be a LAG. I would discount KJ a lot.

Not to mention, he is OOP and should have at least some concern of the river getting checked back, since the 3b flop for a fsd is also not uncommon in live 20 games.

Yeah I've been thinking about it and I think that since he fastplayed the flop and then C/C'd the turn it wouldn't make sense to fastplay and then decide to slowplay (but as you say who knows live players can be lolbad.)

That makes me think even more he has QT and wanted to get aggro with his draw on the flop and then just C/C'd the turn and got frisky on the river. But obv I could be wrong.

jdr - I meant that from villain's eyes, if hero b/3b! a JJ8 board and fires a turn K and river A, what hands are in hero's value range? (I'd estimate Jx, AA/KK/88; if hero can valuebet thin, he's looking at QQ/TT/99/A8) Betting hands like TT-99 on 3 streets might be profitable, but I'd think from villain's eyes, our range contains a lot of trips and full-houses. Our bluffing range is limited to T9s.

If our perceived range is so strong, then villain's raising range should be rather narrow.

Of course, if villain is a sicko and c/raises this board with hands like AT/AQ/AK and you're also a sicko that can bet hands like 99 on this runout, maybe a 3bet on the river is profitable.