Quote:
Originally Posted by UpHillBothWays
grunch. this is a really tough spot. i'd love to know specifically who this is against. unliely i know him but still curious.
this line is almost always (vs. this type of opponent) for bigtime value or a bluff. there's 5-10% that's thin value (which is what he did here). so i'd construct my range to counteract his general tendencies. you have to raise the river some % of the time (i'm lazy, and it's late, so i'm not doing the math atm) as a bluff and for mid-value like a mid ace vs. this guy as well as w/ a set + 2pr.
you also have to 3b the turn a decent %.
so given all that, and given your range, i'd (ish after all these %) call turn 40%, raise turn 30%, fold turn 30%, and call river given call turn 75%/raise 25%
i don't get where your assumptions or conclusions are coming from but you seem to completely neglect this is a narrow range spot, much like the KK did.
Like you talk about raising the river with mid aces, we don't have any in our range so how can we? We need to bluffraise the river, with what QQ exactly? Hell never fold better than QQ so that seems absurd.
people tend to struggle with narrow range spots way more then they should, often it's just what obi pointed out and they don't realize that ranges are actually as narrow as they are