Re: Grand 15: Easy fold? 24 BB pot
I just think this hand is soooooo super read specific. I mean, on a scale of 1 to 10, how drunk and stupid were they?! So drunk and stupid that a raise would come from any hand containing a Q? I do agree that we are playing for half the pot, at best, but I do not agree that this is an auto-fold in these game conditions. In other words, I'm not mad at ya for calling in this spot if that's how ya played it. I also think it's important to keep in mind that even drunk hotards grow a pair every once in a while and decide to try to bluff at a pot that is inflated. They do it in their home games, are generally too scared to try to execute bluffs in casino LHE games, but then every once in a while--especially with liquid courage--they decide to bluff... and usually in the spots that a 2 + 2'er would deem TERRIBLE spots for bluffs. So again, that's a live read-specific situation.
That said, we obv have to save BB's on the river when we know we're beat--doing so can mean all the difference for our bottom line. So if your read is that you're beat, then yeah, you gotta muck! But if you're unsure of whether your straight's good here, it's not an insta-fold against drunk idiots when the pot is laying you such a ridiculously large price.
As far as your inquiry into whether "the correct play" is to bf or to cf, I don't understand what betting here can possibly do for us? I mean, the players you've described are NEVER going lay down any hand with a 10 in it, so you're not ever inducing a fold from a hand that splits with you. This is DEF not a value bet spot, either (for all the reasons discussed above, you are, most likely, behind here!). So IMO, the only option is to check and insta-call one bet in spots like this, and check and tank for two bets...
So I guess I'm not saying that a fold here is wrong, but I am saying that I disagree with those people who claim that's an insta-fold. It's not. And sometimes it may be correct to call. The most interesting thing about the hand analysis for me is that you'd even consider betting out on this river. I really don't understand what the purpose of such a bet would be.
Last edited by COCOCHANEL; 07-01-2012 at 12:41 PM.