Live 20/40 9 handed

Hand 1) it's folded to a loose agro player who knows what he's doing but is unspectacular in the SB..he just completes, I check with Tc3c. We have no history in BVB situations.

Jc8c4d...he checks, I bet, he calls

Jc8c4dAs...he checks, I bet, he calls

Jc8c4dAsAd...he checks...I should?

Hand 2) the HJ opens, SB calls, I call in BB with 6s8s. I have seen HJ limp Hands like QdTd. I would expect his opening range here to be a pip or two tighter than a true TAG. He's a decent hand reader. He is capable of making a fold. I'm thinking maybe I shouldn't be attacking him with my draw but I did. If he has a strong hand on this flop like AQ+ he will raise a blank turn. He will b3b big draws on the flop..so he's not well balanced. He will give me credit for strong hands but knows Im capable of making plays......the more I write the more I dislike my flop CR...all well.

Qs9s2h..I check, HJ bets, SB folds, I raise, he calls.

Qs9s2hJc..I bet, he calls

Qs9s2hJc4d....I should?

i'd check. i'd also check turn too.

hand 2 i barrel river

Hand 1. Raise pre. As played, bet river

Hand 2. x/c, x/c, x/f.

Agree with everything except I give up on River in Hand 1, i don't think people fold 4x here.

I also think it's unlikely he folds a better draw that missed as if expect a loose Agro player to certainly raise Q9o, 9-10o and similar in sb. But if you have reason to think he can fold 4x or similar here than sure fire away.

You also see Jx here a ton that was planning to c-r turn and got scared by Ace, and which will obviously never fold

Hand 1 I might raise pre also, but as played I check turn. If you had raised pre could rep the ace so I would bet.

Meh. They probably don't, but I'd like to give them a chance. If we had raised pre, I'd be more inclined to give up because we'll have many other better candidates to bluff with. And maybe that's true as played, but if I were to play it this way, I don't want to give up.

You should be more inclined to give up this way bexause he knows we never have Ax and don't have 1/2 the combos of Jx.

Should actually be near inpossible to get him to fold Kx even

Yeah, I sort of missed the fact that the A pairing on the river counterfeits our 2 pair combos, which is a decent part of what we're repping here. But if we're going to be value betting Jx and 8x on the turn, the river doesn't change anything. I just don't think it's that bad to continue to barrel and give him the opportunity to fold stuff we beat since it's pretty rare for us to give up and win.

also agree with this line. think river is a mandatory barrel tho with line hero took.

I check back hand 1 as played but probably don't bet turn just because I think there are enough other hands that gain more from bluffing that if we bluff this hand we are bluffing too much. This is also part of reason I check back river (along with the fact the river is an ace).

Also, hand 1 I don't raise preflop. I like having some suited cards in my check range and this seems like a good candidate.

Hand 2 I think check raise and barrel off is fine with this hand. You have no showdown value and can never fold before river anyway so it seems like a good semi bluff candidate. Granted we should be bluffing slightly less than normal vs. described player but I feel this hand is a slam dunk semi bluff vs. standard opponent and we should be removing our more marginal bluffs first. But regardless, once you decide to bluff you absolute have to fire this river.

This is a good point. As played, the Ace should look like a blank to the SB. He should heavily discount the J as well. He is not going to fold a pair. I think he would have bet or CR the flop with a draw. I think most hands he would be just be peeling the flop with that aren't draw's, he would have raised pre flop.

I looked at what I think is villains range in hand two and I think he folds nothing on the flop. On the turn he has picked up at least a pair or a draw. The only hands I think he folds are 66,77,88. I have the 6 and 8 so the 66's and 77's need to be discounted. He'll probably fold A7s and A8s but I'm not sure he raises these pre flop.

I agree I have the correct holding to attack. I think this is the wrong board given this players perceived range in hand 2.

I think there are quite a few hands that the Villian might check the turn with and fold to a river bet by me.

hand 1 i would have given up on the turn card hand 2 is pretty tough but i would probably bet the river and pray

The ace on the river is just an awful card in hand 1. It not only changes nothing (if villain's hand is good before, it is still good now) but it also makes it even less likely that we have an ace than was already the case due to our not raising pre-flop. So I definitely check the river in hand 1 and give up.

Less likely we have ace, but more likely we are vbetting 3rd or 4th pair OTR for value.


Hand 1: Aggro villains usually attack if they don't have any SDV. Definitely give up river. I'd give up turn, too. We were attacking air on the flop. His limp floating range is scary.

Hand 2: I like flop x/r, but would give up on turn. So many hands made it on the turn. Other hands like Kxs picked up outs. Now we can only target A-rag and small PPs, but those are hands people are stickiest with. Our FE has been shot - time to abort. Can still try to bluff river if turn is checked through.

as a general rule, i tend to be more aggressive in bb when shown passivity in the sb (this is most likely part of the reason why i think we're seeing more "i only limp the sb and then lrr a balanced range (vs capable/good players in the bb)" types nowadays, which i don't necessarily hate but do disagree with).

the main reason is that in the blinds, you win way more on average from winning pots with bluffs than you do with value and unless the player has the "only limp sb" strat, you've just learned that his holding isn't that good. therefore basically no matter what you have, you should raise and bet flop/turn most of the time (Depending on board and action of course). i haven't fully thought this out (in terms of balance and cutoffs for what i'd check back in the bb, if anything) b/c i rarely run into people who open limp the sb all that often who's games i don't know and for those games who i do, it probably doesn't matter much either way since the spot doesn't come up that much.

there's obv the argument to literally raise 100% and i don't hate that so let's assume that's what we're doing here. given that you just showed aggression as bb, you're gunna win many T or J+high pots w/ a bet on the flop or turn.

ugh, anyways i'm rambling, what was i saying? oh yea, with no history and a suited hand, i'm def raising the bb for sure in this spot. so for me the hand plays entirely differently. given how you played it, you only have to win this pot now 16.25% of the time to break even. so if there is that proportion of his range that will fold to a bet, we simply have to bet.

so BBB-->
does he have draws that he played passively? what's out there? looks like not many high card flush draws given that he's a LAG (he's prob raising K2s in sb or Q5s in sb i'd imagine), so no need to target those. what about straight draws? again, QT type hands (not that likely since he called turn) or T9 almost surely raise pf, so no need to worry about folding out those, either. what about better Ts or any other better naked high cards? same i think, i don't see a single hand that he'd call sb with, that we have to worry about losing a game theory disaster to by checking, and that play this way that's better than T high 3 kicker.

so at that point, i'd stop the analysis and say, ok, while i didn't do the actual math to find out what proportion of his hands will fold to a bluff, i did do enough to know that betting will basically never fold out a better hand that folds to a bet. that means either:

a) we win when we check and give some free info (not great but for 5 bets, i'll take it). JUST MAKE SURE TO MAKE HIM SHOW FIRST OR MUCK. do NOT just flip our hand over unless it's the borgata in which case no choice.

or

b) we lose to his 4 or maybe 8. or he coulda been stupidtrapping w/ some A5 type hand but he's laggy so that seems unlikely. his hands that we beat can only either be worse flush draws than Thigh, some combo draws, or some weird straight draw that he decided to peel turn with incorrectly. his hands that we lose to are any board card of which he has one in his hand lol.

so in conclusion, i check behind THIS hand. but mostly i'm VERY MUCH in favor of the gto philosophy of bet bottom of our range in this spot. i'm also playing the hand differently so i don't encounter this spot often (played passive pf and have a possible chance to steal by barrelling but not sure). the only reason i'm 100% behind a check here is that the description of the player, the board, and the play of the hand allow us to very confidently deduct that there a) is no game theory disaster out there hiding if we check, and b) we win the pot all the times he doesn't have a pair of some kind excluding the times that his logic doesn't match ours. so ALL we fear here is Q5s type hands and given the description of a lag, i don't think he's completing that in the sb.

NOTE: IF HE DOES complete that bs in the sb then there's probably > 16.25% of his hands that can get there given the play so we DO then have to bet to fold out K/Q high flush draws.

and sorry for the long rambly post.

1) I like it so far and I'd check the river expecting to win occasionally.

2) I like it so far as long as you don't always check raise the flop and I'd bet the river.