If villain has a set ott I hate his check on a king turn I'm hoping to b/3b ak or something like that

I think this too, but jdr confirms that his read is that villain will xr all his sets. So we have to go on that.

Does your methodology factor in IO or RIO? Seems significant as we almost always get an extra bet when the T hits.

If we get xr'ed, we either lose 2 extra BBs, or 1 extra BB and don't get to showdown. If there is much uncertainty in villain's ranges I'd hate to not get to showdown. Alternately, losing two extra BBs means there needs to be a whole lotta extra upside to betting.

with the read you gave, this make a lot of sense.

Since his 3betting from BB here , it seem a pretty poor strategy because it make his range so badly thight, he probably would take a bad line postflop as well, like c/r all his set,AA and AK here.
And you say he does not get out of line on top of this.
This flop and turn hit his a tight range much harder than yours.
And good point from Macguy, would he really call turn and river with TT and JJ ?
If he would call the turn but fold river ui , it is better you check the turn since you would only get 1 BB value in either case ( i suspect he would call the river if you check the turn) but you save yourself getting pawn by his big hand on the turn .
So imo jesse nailed it.

Why does OP think this then? Do we have prior experience where he bet the flop and then c/r the turn with a set in which it was a heads up pot and he was OOP?

My read isn't that he will donk check his sets. My read is that if he does decide donk x/r the turn, he is never bluffing, nor can he have thin value hands, leaving sets with a questionable amount of AA (this questionable amount could easily be 0%).

I agree that this is an awful board, given his preflop line, to construct any sort of turn x/r line. My bet/calls overlap a ton with my raise/calls (notably KQ and 99, in the times I didn't fastplay 99), and he also risks letting me get away from my hand, along with me taking a freebie w/ hands like AJ. But this is another reason why we beat level 1 players: level 1 players go "omg I have <hand rank X>, I should do <action Y>".

Posts 18 and 19 clearly imply you think he tries to xr all his sets.

Then I worded that poorly. I meant that I believed his check raising range would be incredibly set dense.

B/c turn and fold river UI imo (if I'm stuck, I prob call river as well lol). I just don't like checking this strong of a hand against a tight, passive player just bc we're afraid of a donk x/r.

How many players are going to 3! BB against EP open and then have a well-balanced donk x/r range in this spot? Not many. We know we are beat but might have odds to call turn raise.

This was my point, Macau presented it much better. Also, just because your read is that 'if' he c/r, then this action would be set heavy, does not mean he will not lead the turn 95% of the time with his sets in this situation. If you have not seen him actually make this play, then I discount it until he does. Hence, I bet turn.

What range do you put him on to take the line of 3! BB, bet flop, check raise turn on Q9x-Kr?

He has tens or jacks if he doesn't c/r, QQ-AA is he does. He's just going to barrel AK or AQ.

Playing k,j. Utg7 puts you in ugly spots often.
A guy who is playing a game to big for him, doesn't check raise turns without nutty hands.
Unless we are playing poker near a black hole singularity.

Preflop is fine, yes KJ has tough spots, so what poker can be tough. Very much disagree with you about a guy playing over his head and how we will play though. Many times I have seen someone take a shot in a big game and over adjust to be super spewy assuming that's how the big boys play and be Super showdown bound because all the high stakes players are going to push him around!

I also seen a guy fall from a twelve story building and survive. You go with the odds not exceptions

bet for sure

I agree with everything except possibly the AQ. He may check back AQ here when the K hits as an over card and completes a possible draw. This seems to be the type of player that can be a little MUBSY and I can see checking the AQ and then calling it down, hence the reason why I bet the turn.

this is so true. sooooo true. people are very apt to overadjust when they are scared because they know you are a good lag.

Just for an FYI, the subgroup of hands

KTs-KQs, KJo-KQo

Have performed quite well for me UTG and UTG +1 in OL 6 max games (including UTG +1 due to sample size issues, as most games I've played over the past year are 4-5 handed affairs). So color me skeptical that they'd perform this much worse in a much softer 7 handed live game UTG.

Bet/folding is bad. It's just a bad idea to err on the side of super specific reads based on essentially zero sample. The river might be close unimproved when you get checkraised on the turn, but calling can't be awful when your read is he's "kind of on the passive side by nature" and "starting to play a lot more aggressive". That's exactly the type of player who shows up with weirdass multistreet bluffs when they decide to spew 3-bet the BB with A4s or something.

bet

B/f