this decision 100% hinges on this:
Quote:
Never seen him call a flop light against a LP open when defending his BB.
useless to discuss ranges/barrelling etc. until that's cleared up. what does this mean exactly?
is AK a light call? small-mid pairs? AT? or do you mean only hands like T8 don't call and the rest i mentioned above are not light?
if he'll fold 1/3 of his hands that make it to the turn on the river, you can't give up. so getting a sense of his range on the turn after he checks is the only thing that matters here.
given he's shown NO aggression so far he probably doesn't have top top hands. you said he's tight, but how passive is he (open limping AQs is indeed passive, but what about post flop)?
and how attached to his "Good hands" is he. as you know, many super tight people are completely showdown bound w/ anything the like preflop b/c they play so few hands. this doesn't seem to be the case here though, but i'm not sure.
taking pots off of villains like this is huge, so if his range includes enough hands that he'll fold for a turn and riv bet where it's 1/3 of the set, you have to be 2 more times.