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Old 07-17-2012, 11:32 PM   #1
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Flush Draw

Game is once again 1/2 City of Angels. Fishy lady open limps, laggy asian raises HJ, fishy co cold calls, I opt to call OTB with black 66. Laggy pro calls SB and tag fishy asian lady (from my other post) calls bb. 6 ways, 6 big bets, I have 66.

973sss

Four checks to the CO who bets. In order for him to bet he has something that likes this board. His cold calling range preflop is obviously massive. The HJ's check pretty much means he has no pair no spade. The other three players (the limper and both blinds) tend to check/raise a fair bit, but would also have been likely to donk some strong hands in a 6 way pot.

1. Is preflop an abortion?
2. If I opt to continue, obviously I must raise. Do I raise?
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Old 07-18-2012, 12:34 AM   #2
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Re: Flush Draw

I play the same preflop.
Is one of your sixes a spade? Does it matter? Why is this so obvious that you must raise if you opt to continue?
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Old 07-18-2012, 12:43 AM   #3
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Re: Flush Draw

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I play the same preflop.
Is one of your sixes a spade? Does it matter? Why is this so obvious that you must raise if you opt to continue?
Yes I do have the 6, as it is one of the black ones, and if I'm going to continue I would want to raise because literally ATC the equity to call 1 bet against my hand in a pot this size. Raising is also super compelling because it could, occasionally, promote my 6 to the boss trump.
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Old 07-18-2012, 12:47 AM   #4
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Re: Flush Draw

^--that seemed obvious.

I think folding is in order, too many indians in this hand to get fancy. The red 6's make a straight too. Too many things not in your favor.
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Old 07-18-2012, 12:54 AM   #5
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Re: Flush Draw

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Originally Posted by jesse8888 View Post
Yes I do have the 6, as it is one of the black ones, and if I'm going to continue I would want to raise because literally ATC the equity to call 1 bet against my hand in a pot this size. Raising is also super compelling because it could, occasionally, promote my 6 to the boss trump.
oops, overlooked the "black" part in the OP. If there would be only two spades on the flop, would you insta-fold ?
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Old 07-18-2012, 01:03 AM   #6
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Re: Flush Draw

Super insta-fold IMO.
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Old 07-18-2012, 03:13 PM   #7
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Re: Flush Draw

Fold seems best. Raising to get people to fold higher spades seems too optimistic here.
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Old 07-18-2012, 03:46 PM   #8
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Re: Flush Draw

pf super standard, they wont throw you in jail if you 3-bet either

1. Fold
2. CR
3. Call
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Old 07-18-2012, 03:54 PM   #9
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Re: Flush Draw

If I read this correctly, against 5 other random players, my guess is that your hand has about 16% equity (+/- 2%) on this board, if you were to run it out. While this will usually improve with folds, it is still not very good. I am not sure on the stack depths here as that may impact some decisions for later streets.
In game you will either stick more money in (raise/call against usually the best possible of your opponents holdings) or fold. I would lean toward a fold with 4 players to act behind me. Another option is to flat and re-evaluate on the turn, now that you have more information about how the other players have acted on each street and what their ranges might be. However, most of the time that option, as well as jamming, will probably end up being negative EV (unless you have some really good reads that can add some value). I would only consider continuing with TT+, 2 pair +, and made flushes on this board, against this many players (as your average equity should be around 32%+ equity against the entire field).
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Old 07-18-2012, 08:28 PM   #10
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Re: Flush Draw

Preflop is fine especially if game is loose / passive enough post flop to give too implied odds.

Obv no one is folding the A here. I actually expect the Q or K to see at least the turn as well, so we're only folding out J and lower spades by raising.

In that case, how likely is it that someone has one of those 3 cards that ruin our plans? Villains have 10 cards between them, so it's (very roughly) something like 10*3/47 (we can see 5 cards, leaving 47 unknown), which is actually a pretty big percentage. If we downgrade to just the K and A calling our raise, this number goes down to like 45-50%.

So, let's say that 50% of the time, our raise folds out any higher spade that is not in the CO's hand (he's definitely seeing the turn for one more bet with basically ATC, IMO). Of that 50%, how often are we going to win against CO? Is it worth it?

You could solve this by running a quick stove calc and seeing whether 1/2 of this pot gives you pot odds to put in 2 more bets.

I suspect the answer is that it does not.

I fold.
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Old 07-19-2012, 01:43 AM   #11
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Re: Flush Draw

Looks Good(if you folded flop that is)
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Old 07-19-2012, 04:41 AM   #12
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Wow this 1/2 game look like a freakin game of awesomeness!
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Old 07-19-2012, 10:56 PM   #13
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Re: Flush Draw

I folded at game speed and am pretty sure it was a substantial mistake. The pot is already very large (13 small bets), so I don't need very much equity at all to continue profitably. The theme of these two posts was that I still don't play well in large pots with nebulous (but substantial) equity.
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Old 07-19-2012, 11:00 PM   #14
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Re: Flush Draw

Jesse, i think you are relying too much on immediate odds in your thinking.
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Old 07-20-2012, 01:18 AM   #15
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Re: Flush Draw

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I folded at game speed and am pretty sure it was a substantial mistake.
I think you're wrong, and it seems everyone else in this thread agrees with me. Fold.
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