Preflop is fine especially if game is loose / passive enough post flop to give too implied odds.
Obv no one is folding the A
here. I actually expect the Q
to see at least the turn as well, so we're only folding out J
and lower spades by raising.
In that case, how likely is it that someone has one of those 3 cards that ruin our plans? Villains have 10 cards between them, so it's (very roughly) something like 10*3/47 (we can see 5 cards, leaving 47 unknown), which is actually a pretty big percentage. If we downgrade to just the K
calling our raise, this number goes down to like 45-50%.
So, let's say that 50% of the time, our raise folds out any higher spade that is not in the CO's hand (he's definitely seeing the turn for one more bet with basically ATC, IMO). Of that 50%, how often are we going to win against CO? Is it worth it?
You could solve this by running a quick stove calc and seeing whether 1/2 of this pot gives you pot odds to put in 2 more bets.
I suspect the answer is that it does not.