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Old 02-12-2012, 04:08 PM   #201
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Quote:
Originally Posted by private joker View Post
The first sentence is a fallacy, which invalidates the rest of your post.

When he sits up and shakes his head and checks, going through that whole act means he has the Ac like all the time. So maybe I should have said calling the river was a large mistake. But after he whiffs his turn c/r, there's a chance he goes for a river c/r, which could allow me to put no more bets into the pot with 0% equity. Betting the turn against that player doing that act is lighting money on fire.
We'll just have to agree to disagree on the fact that you completely mangled the hand. Hope your downswing ends soon, my best advice would be to play better.
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Old 02-12-2012, 04:26 PM   #202
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Re: February Low-Content Thread

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We'll just have to agree to disagree on the fact that you completely mangled the hand. Hope your downswing ends soon, my best advice would be to play better.
It's pretty clear I didn't mangle that hand. Of course I can play better -- so can you, so can all of us. Even world class players could play better -- but in that spot against that guy, my line (or my line + folding the river) are so far and away more profitable than anything else that it is isn't worth serious discussion and it's why this was in the LC thread.

Something that might be worthy of the LC thread though is a more general lesson this hand can teach -- especially to you online guys being forced to play more live poker (for, hopefully, just the time being). I sympathize with the desire to put your headphones on, bury your head in the sand, and click buttons with your chips as if you were in front of a computer.

But if you took the headphones off and listened to the painfully inane blather that your live opponents emit between hands, you hear all sorts of clues to how their pea brains think, and what lines they want to take under all sorts of conditions. It also helps you pick up on tells that at first seem subtle but after years of experience are giant alarm bells. These tells drastically reduce the number of hands they can have in their range and not only turn close decisions into easy ones, but can turn standard folds into easy raises and standard checks into easy bets.

The underlying fundamentals are still math-oriented, but instead of doing that math based on wide ranges, you can now do it based on a range heavily weighted towards one end or the other if the opponent gives you this extra valuable information.
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Old 02-12-2012, 04:33 PM   #203
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Re: February Low-Content Thread

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Originally Posted by private joker View Post
It's pretty clear I didn't mangle that hand. Of course I can play better -- so can you, so can all of us. Even world class players could play better -- but in that spot against that guy, my line (or my line + folding the river) are so far and away more profitable than anything else that it is isn't worth serious discussion and it's why this was in the LC thread.

Something that might be worthy of the LC thread though is a more general lesson this hand can teach -- especially to you online guys being forced to play more live poker (for, hopefully, just the time being). I sympathize with the desire to put your headphones on, bury your head in the sand, and click buttons with your chips as if you were in front of a computer.

But if you took the headphones off and listened to the painfully inane blather that your live opponents emit between hands, you hear all sorts of clues to how their pea brains think, and what lines they want to take under all sorts of conditions. It also helps you pick up on tells that at first seem subtle but after years of experience are giant alarm bells. These tells drastically reduce the number of hands they can have in their range and not only turn close decisions into easy ones, but can turn standard folds into easy raises and standard checks into easy bets.

The underlying fundamentals are still math-oriented, but instead of doing that math based on wide ranges, you can now do it based on a range heavily weighted towards one end or the other if the opponent gives you this extra valuable information.
boc doesn't use headphones and despite how he comes across is quite genial (sorry if this blows your spot up drew lol). his opponents like playing w/ him. he's one of the better live players i know personally when you factor everything in (game selection, personality at the table, skill).

i haven't read teh underlying hand in dispute here so i may have to do that lol, but if boc is very sure about something, it's worth considering (though it def doesn't mean he's right. he's got a few theories that he's a staunch defender of that i can recall disagreeing with).
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Old 02-12-2012, 04:42 PM   #204
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Re: February Low-Content Thread

well drew, sometimes you make me eat my words lol. this may be one of those times.

in the AKc hand, the lines are:

1. call flop. assuming all else call, bet turn when checked to (fold to k/r and fold if tell-giving passive fish donks river)

2. raise flop. bet turn. bet river if called, fold if k/r'd

3. raise flop. check turn. call river

4. raise flop. check turn. fold river

what do you think the min/max ev is for those lines assuming pj is right on about his read?

another way to think about it. let's remove the read. w/o it, clearly turn is a bet/fold to a passive non-bluffing fish as is the riv. so we either earn a % of a bet or lose a % of a bet, but it's not a huge mistake either way. so i do think mangled is a bit strong.

that said, i get the feeling you may be trolling pj ;-)
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Old 02-12-2012, 04:42 PM   #205
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Originally Posted by DcifrThs View Post
boc doesn't use headphones and despite how he comes across is quite genial (sorry if this blows your spot up drew lol). his opponents like playing w/ him. he's one of the better live players i know personally when you factor everything in (game selection, personality at the table, skill).

i haven't read teh underlying hand in dispute here so i may have to do that lol, but if boc is very sure about something, it's worth considering (though it def doesn't mean he's right. he's got a few theories that he's a staunch defender of that i can recall disagreeing with).
The majority of my post isn't directed at boc.
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Old 02-12-2012, 04:54 PM   #206
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Re: February Low-Content Thread

joker is right, i have no idea why boc and bob are arguing he should bet the turn. the guy spewed off a massive tell, joker was correct in reading that tell, and yet you are telling joker he should have ignored it? this is not a pure strategy decision. if you want to argue he should have folded the river, that's another story, there is a debate to be had, but arguing he should have bet the turn totally misses the point.
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Old 02-12-2012, 05:05 PM   #207
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Re: February Low-Content Thread

I think raising the flop is a mistake. I suppose the thought of raising is that we can get the pot heads-up against the naked Ac. This happens too infrequently to offset the negatives of raising (Shutting out smaller single-club hands that will peel, and frequently putting more money in bad, getting the pot hu against a hand that we are behind). Raising the flop is the major mistake, in my view.

I agree that the tell described can be accurate. Because of that, we don't need to bet and call down, as we may be inclined to do without any other reads. Betting the turn and folding to more action allows us to get two streets of value vs worse hands, while losing the same amount when we are raised on the turn.

Visual and verbal tells are obviously important, but you can't allow them to too-drastically change how you play. Anyway, whatever. Too much content in LC. Thanks for the vouch Barron. And yes PJ, a lot of Internet poker players, and especially LHE players, are very poor at the live poker elements you described.
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Old 02-12-2012, 05:16 PM   #208
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Re: February Low-Content Thread

Of course against an unknown the flop is a slam-dunk call. Why would I want to get HU against a hand I was behind and shut out worse draws? I certainly wouldn't, which is why it's an easy call -- against an unknown.

However, in this case, I was against a donktard who never donks the flop in that spot with a strong hand. His donk on a monotone board into a PFR is always done out of fear. His range when he donks there is middle or bottom pair with no club, or a pocket pair with no club. So against that range, I am >50% with two overs, a gutshot, and the second nut flush draw. He never ever ever has the Ac when he donks; that just isn't how he plays.

The other fish, on the other hand (the one who ended up having the Ac) will never fold a club -- any club -- to two bets, so I'm getting value from him, and even if he never folds better hands (like any pair) then three-ways I'm still +EV to raise the flop. Furthermore, I get initiative and retain the option to check back the turn in position if need be.

But you're right, too much content in LC which is why I didn't post this hand in a thread. It's a super-boring hand strat-wise, and one that must be played unorthodox given the hilariously unbalanced betting patterns of my specific opponents.

EDIT: And I guess I have to repeat this, but b/f the turn costs 1 BB and doesn't see a showdown, whereas checking the turn could inspire villain to go for a c/r again (which granted doesn't happen often) and costs 0 BB. But if he does bet and I make a (bad) call, then even though I lose money with the call I get the small benefit of seeing a showdown and confirming a read on a tell that should have been 100%. [I guess there's a very small chance he could have misread his hand and hold the As, because he's 75 and still has food on his chin from lunch].
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Old 02-12-2012, 05:28 PM   #209
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Re: February Low-Content Thread

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Originally Posted by DeathDonkey View Post
Hand 2 patting the Ten is somewhere between really bad and just divide your chips up to all your opponents and leave the table to go cry bad. If villains were more competent the decision would be whether to keep the 8 or draw to 247, but considering the reads and stakes and whatnot 4 bet and keep the 87 draw is easily the best choice.
I appreciate the response. So would you pat a 98762? (Edit: What about a T9875? Just fold it?) Would you draw 1 to a 97532? I understand that I'm overrepping my hand by patting the T. I felt at the time that I would get a lot of credit given my image so I could get them to fold draws that had a lot of outs vs my actual hand since they would put me on at least a pat 9 and wouldn't ever try to bluff raise me. So if I got raised on any street I could decide between folding and breaking.

Last edited by ImAllInNow; 02-12-2012 at 05:37 PM.
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Old 02-12-2012, 06:40 PM   #210
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People never give anyone any credit when they're pat pre-draw.

You're also out of position the entire hand, which makes patting weak when you have an otherwise strong draw an even bigger mistake, imo
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Old 02-12-2012, 07:11 PM   #211
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Re: February Low-Content Thread

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People never give anyone any credit when they're pat pre-draw.

You're also out of position the entire hand, which makes patting weak when you have an otherwise strong draw an even bigger mistake, imo
Well, 8742 isn't THAT strong of a draw. I mean I would never have considered patting a T7532.

FWIW, they both folded after the second draw with the pf 3-bettor showing 6543 as he folded (lol nice draw).
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Old 02-12-2012, 07:42 PM   #212
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Re: February Low-Content Thread

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EDIT: And I guess I have to repeat this, but b/f the turn costs 1 BB and doesn't see a showdown, whereas checking the turn could inspire villain to go for a c/r again (which granted doesn't happen often) and costs 0 BB. But if he does bet and I make a (bad) call, then even though I lose money with the call I get the small benefit of seeing a showdown and confirming a read on a tell that should have been 100%.
to answer boc's point specifically about getting two streets of value if you bet and he calls, i think this is an example of taking a correct online strategy and applying it when we have information that should override it. assuming joker's confidence in his tell is 80% or more (which is quite possible imo) you would never want to put 2 bets in, even if he does only call a turn bet. i'll leave the bayesian updating to you, but a turn call does not necessarily mean "my read was wrong -- i can value bet again"; it can also mean "my read was right -- he's going for a river checkraise". basically, if the tell is strong enough, the information from his betting actions will never be strong enough to overwhelm it. i actually think folding the river may have been the expert play, especially given that....
Quote:
he's 75 and still has food on his chin from lunch].
but i would need to know precisely what the food particles were to be sure.
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Old 02-12-2012, 07:46 PM   #213
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Re: February Low-Content Thread

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I appreciate the response. So would you pat a 98762? (Edit: What about a T9875? Just fold it?) Would you draw 1 to a 97532? I understand that I'm overrepping my hand by patting the T. I felt at the time that I would get a lot of credit given my image so I could get them to fold draws that had a lot of outs vs my actual hand since they would put me on at least a pat 9 and wouldn't ever try to bluff raise me. So if I got raised on any street I could decide between folding and breaking.
No I'd draw one at 8762 in this lineup and two to 762 in a tougher game. Would draw 1 with 97532 yes. As ILR said you will be perceived as weak, not strong, and beyond that, its equity and implied odds / reverse implied odds. A 4 card 8 is a solid favorite to make an 8 with three draws, and when you do your hand can actually bet for value on the end instead of check and pray.
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Old 02-12-2012, 07:52 PM   #214
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Re: February Low-Content Thread

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No I'd draw one at 8762 in this lineup and two to 762 in a tougher game. Would draw 1 with 97532 yes. As ILR said you will be perceived as weak, not strong, and beyond that, its equity and implied odds / reverse implied odds. A 4 card 8 is a solid favorite to make an 8 with three draws, and when you do your hand can actually bet for value on the end instead of check and pray.
So basically your cap-patting range is made 8s or better or the rare snows? If you're drawing two to 762 I assume you're just flatting the 3 bets or would you cap and draw 2? Sorry, I shouldn't be asking so many specific questions.
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Old 02-12-2012, 08:49 PM   #215
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Re: February Low-Content Thread

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not really analogous. appreciating getting sucked out on requires you to distance yourself from the immediate loss you suffered, and realize it's indicative of bad play that will benefit you in the long run. in the case of a massive obvious tell, they are straight showing you their hand. no long term philosophical perspective needed -- you save money instantly.

only reason i can think of for being bothered is the implied insult that you are dumb enough to fall for such an obvious ruse. but they think the ruse is really clever, so it's actually hilarious and nothing but enjoyable.
You make some good points. Next time I'll just be grateful for the info without the internal eye-roll.
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Old 02-12-2012, 10:39 PM   #216
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Re: February Low-Content Thread

If I'm drawing two I'd just call, yes. There are some non breakable 9s I'd pat all the way, 34569, even 23469 I think is a close decision, but yeah I don't have a lot of them, since they are super vulnerable multiway OOP.
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Old 02-12-2012, 10:56 PM   #217
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Re: February Low-Content Thread

Honestly I'd rather just muck 96543 than play it out of position multiway unless I was against completely terrified nits that would always play their hands faceup and never put in a raise at any point without making the best hand. Ideally they would also show down worse nines and tens if they made them. I can't imagine a player like that actually existing.
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Old 02-12-2012, 11:00 PM   #218
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Re: February Low-Content Thread

Thread,

JokerIsRight. As others have noted, the information is out there. It's not always easy to pick up or process in time to formulate the right play and make it, but it's there, and ignoring it rather than striving to win the tellbox war is cavalier and silly and moneyhating.

Joker,

Nice hand, brah. Wish you could have chest-thump-folded the river, that's so strong. Puts a lump in my throat every time you do that ****. When I want to hear about a championship-level fold, I go to Private Joker.
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Old 02-12-2012, 11:23 PM   #219
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Re: February Low-Content Thread

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Hand 1 don't have anything to add to the discussion, its close whether to break the J8, raising the turn would be real bad.
If the player behind you folds when you call it seems like you should probably pat - given the cards we've seen, V2's likely holding and V1's hand, it looks like you're throwing away quite a bit of equity by breaking the jack at this point, like at least six chips, I think. Can the implied odds advantage really be worth that much against a frustrated nit with a likely draw to the nuts? How often is he donking the river as a bluff? He's never betting a worse hand for value.
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Old 02-12-2012, 11:32 PM   #220
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Re: February Low-Content Thread

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If the player behind you folds when you call it seems like you should probably pat - given the cards we've seen, V2's likely holding and V1's hand, it looks like you're throwing away quite a bit of equity by breaking the jack at this point, like at least six chips, I think. Can the implied odds advantage really be worth that much against a frustrated nit with a likely draw to the nuts? How often is he donking the river as a bluff? He's never betting a worse hand for value.
Anyone want to bet river as a bluff against a better Jack (I can credibly rep a Ten I think)? I figure he bets any 9 or better and checks a T or worse. Seems like I would be getting a good price (8:1) if he folds a Jack like 25% of the time.
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Old 02-12-2012, 11:41 PM   #221
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Re: February Low-Content Thread

Really tough to imagine him patting a hand OOP that's weak enough for you to bluff out if he checks and you fire. Like, why would you pat if he pats? That's insane, no? You're turning a jack low into a snow.
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Old 02-12-2012, 11:43 PM   #222
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Re: February Low-Content Thread

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Really tough to imagine him patting a hand OOP that's weak enough for you to bluff out if he checks and you fire.
He drew 1.
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Old 02-12-2012, 11:50 PM   #223
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Re: February Low-Content Thread

Right. He has to fold a jack quite a bit more than 25% of the time for this to be correct. Seems dicey if he has any reason to suspect you're snowing. If he's not factoring that in it then a bet could have some value - do you think he could ever fold a ten here? That would be a gigantic coup. Then again it's pretty hard to imagine him folding a ten when you've played your hand so weakly. If you're going to play with these guys a lot I think you should sometimes play an eight-perfect or a seven this way too.
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Old 02-13-2012, 12:20 AM   #224
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Re: February Low-Content Thread

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Right. He has to fold a jack quite a bit more than 25% of the time for this to be correct. Seems dicey if he has any reason to suspect you're snowing. If he's not factoring that in it then a bet could have some value - do you think he could ever fold a ten here? That would be a gigantic coup. Then again it's pretty hard to imagine him folding a ten when you've played your hand so weakly. If you're going to play with these guys a lot I think you should sometimes play an eight-perfect or a seven this way too.
I was figuring he would only check a ten or worse (a Q or worse is irrelevant since it's not calling and I beat it) so there are the same number of tens and jacks in his range. So if he calls with every ten then if he folds 25% of time with a jack, then I'm folding out 12.5% of the hands that beat me. Since I'm getting 8:1 on a bet that would be a +EV bluff right?

Might just be ROT since I snap-checked behind and he had J6432 and won. I also rabbited the next card off the deck and I woulda made an 8 if I had drawn one.
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Old 02-13-2012, 12:24 AM   #225
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Re: February Low-Content Thread

Four tens and three jacks left in the deck, yo.
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