Originally Posted by armor32
Commerce 40. Villain (CO) is a ~40 y.o. Korean lady. I didn't see her before but it's been ~5 hours into session so I've developed some reads. The main objective of the post is to collect your guys' opinions if 5 hours of play can generate enough of a read to make a big fold. So she is obviously a bad, gambool type player. A lot of big preflop leaks - plays (limps) way too many hands, fails to 3-bet with premium hands (and loudly comments how she didn't make it 3 bets with Aces for the fun of it). She will go all-in with last 8 chips before next rebuy "with no look my cards" etc'. She is quite aggressive preflop in late position and I never saw her limping in CO or OTB. Postflop, she fails to value bet enough on the river but overall her play is not as horrible as preflop; she is less fishy than other big Commerce fishes, if I can say so. Most remarkably, I have never observed her going 2 bets or more on big streets if she couldn't beat top pair. She's been drinking and losing a lot, at least 4 racks. She is very vocal and social, laughs and chats etc'.
I have been running very very bad and barely played a hand, and I am sure she noticed that because people were actually discussing that "this guy only plays Aces or Kings"
Hand: CO opens, hero 3! AQ OTB, blinds fold, CO calls
Flop: A62r, CO check raises, hero calls planning to raise any turn
Turn: 7, CO bets, hero raises and now CO quickly 3-bets, hero calls (?)
Now, given the 4-5 hours of reads so far, can we plan on folding river UI ?
that 3b ott is serious **** imo. But unless she NEVER 3b with less than a set it's a call and fold ui otr and I'd say nh.
Unfortunately poker decisions are about making the best decsions that you can with the info that you have AT THE TIME. At the time of this hand your info was at least 2p+ so you don't have enough info yet to make that kind of lay down ott because if she has 76 you have like 8 outs - you can't fold ott. But watch her closely and see (as with all your opponents) if she doesn't 3b with 2p or better... then you can own her later.
Speaking of which - I think you can trust your reads - use them to your advantage even if it's just five hours. that's still a lot of time to gather info imo... and your reads are nice. I can tell you don't really fiddle with a phone or play distracted while you play most of the time and this is good stuff.