Commerce 40. Villain (CO) is a ~40 y.o. Korean lady. I didn't see her before but it's been ~5 hours into session so I've developed some reads. The main objective of the post is to collect your guys' opinions if 5 hours of play can generate enough of a read to make a big fold. So she is obviously a bad, gambool type player. A lot of big preflop leaks - plays (limps) way too many hands, fails to 3-bet with premium hands (and loudly comments how she didn't make it 3 bets with Aces for the fun of it). She will go all-in with last 8 chips before next rebuy "with no look my cards" etc'. She is quite aggressive preflop in late position and I never saw her limping in CO or OTB. Postflop, she fails to value bet enough on the river but overall her play is not as horrible as preflop; she is less fishy than other big Commerce fishes, if I can say so. Most remarkably, I have never observed her going 2 bets or more on big streets if she couldn't beat top pair. She's been drinking and losing a lot, at least 4 racks. She is very vocal and social, laughs and chats etc'.
I have been running very very bad and barely played a hand, and I am sure she noticed that because people were actually discussing that "this guy only plays Aces or Kings"

Hand: CO opens, hero 3! AQ OTB, blinds fold, CO calls
Flop: A62r, CO check raises, hero calls planning to raise any turn
Turn: 7, CO bets, hero raises and now CO quickly 3-bets, hero calls (?)

Now, given the 4-5 hours of reads so far, can we plan on folding river UI ?

I think I can fold based on your description


All your posts make it seem that the 40 at Commerce is significantly easier than Oceans, is that the case? Did you relocate to LA BTW, haven't noticed you down here in a couple months.

I'd rather call the flop c/r, call the turn, and raise/fold the river.

Interesting - why would you wait to the river in this case (especially given her passiveness OTR, it is less likely to expect she would follow up with aggression there once I called flop kr and called turn)? Most of the times I asked here on delaying value raises from turn to river, I was given definitive answers that this is bad. I understand that different spots are different and it all depends, so how does this spot justify waiting, in your opinion?

because if she 3 bets the river and you have one pair the fold is so trivial you'd completely forget about it instead of posting the hand on 2p2. i'm pretty sure you can actually fold the turn here lol.

I think you can fold the turn. By taking the line you took, you are actually repping a bigger hand than AQ. And she's saying she doesn't care. I am not sure she even takes this line with a hand like 76 that you have outs against. The flop raise makes this line less likely to be FOS.

my bet she has woken up to a set

post flop as played
i c/c to the river is that too cautious

id call and fold any non 6, 7, A, or Q river.

I wouldn't take this line without calculating how often you think she has 2 pair and which 2 pair you think she might have.

i just did? what are you talking about?

She raised from the cut-off (albeit with a presumably wide range), x/r'd the flop, and 3-bet the turn.

Also, we have a read from OP that she doesn't 3-bet the turn without a hand that beats top pair.

Now, the question on the table is how often is this 2-pair on an A627 board, and which 2 pair is it (i.e., how many outs does AQ have even if it is 2 pair?), versus how often is it a set which has us drawing dead?

1. It is never 26.
2. It might be 76 suited (3 combinations) but almost never is because that hand would not likely raise this flop (we have 8 outs against this hand). Let's discount this 75 percent.
3. It might be A2 (9 combinations, 9 outs), A6 (9 combinations, 6 outs), or A7 (9 combinations, 3 outs) although I would discount these somewhat because villain might get MUBSY and call down on the turn after our raise. Let's discount these 25 percent.

On the other hand, we can assume she will play her sets this way. Those include AA (1 combination), 66 (3 combinations), and 22 (3 combinations). 77 (3 combinations) is much less likely because of the flop raise. Let's discount 77 75 percent.

The weighted average of our outs is (.75x8 + 6.75x9 + 6.75x6 + 6.75x3) / 28.75 = 4.4

That's about 9.6 percent equity. We're getting 10 1/2 to 1, so it would seem like we are right on the edge of getting the right price to call. But it's a little worse than that because we are also going to have to put in an extra bet on the river on any 6, 7, Q, or A, which is 11 cards, or about 24 percent of the deck. And since our equity is actually only 9.6 percent, about 14 percent of the time, we are putting in one extra BB and losing, which is our reverse implied odds and have to be factored into our play. That means instead of 10.5BB's, the actual EV of the pot as of the turn 3-bet is about 10.36BB's or so.

I think it's a thin fold.

why would you assume she plays sets this way but not A7? i think discounting Ax-making 2 pairs 25% is incorrect and something you made up to twist the numbers in your favor.

i would also discount AA about 100% given PF action vs this villain.

I would not discount AA, as most players in 40 games don't cap heads up. At any rate, it's 1 combo.

The problem with assuming a 100 percent 3-bettting frequency for any 2 pair on the turn is that it assumes that a player never fears a set when we wait for the turn and raise. But that's not most live players I know. Lots of players call down 2 pair to this action; it's the reason why free showdown raises often work and aren't spew.

I think you should be careful about wishful thinking. The villain has taken a line that represents a set and not 2 pair. You WANT her to have 2 pair and not a set. But realistically, this line is more commonly associated with the hand you don't want her to have, and thus you have to discount the 2 pair combos somewhat.

One more thing. I also did not include ace-king, which we have 3 outs against. Because I don't think she 3-bets the turn with it. But bear in mind, if AK IS in the player's range, that would reduce our equity further.

Folding these sorts of hands against players who are only 3-betting the turn with very strong hands is an important exploitative move in poker. If it is not in your repertoire, it is probably -EV to wait for the turn to put in your raise in the first place, because it bloats the pot when you are behind and increases your RIO's.

Yes, definitely.

But I really like private joker's line of calling down the flop k/r and raise/folding the river.