Some of the details of this hand have been changed for more interesting discussion, but I think its a spot worth talking about; but I'll add the answer is probably it really doesn't matter because this will come up so few times that it doesn't matter if you lose a fraction of a bet here or there.. Also I don't think the hand is even remotely intereting if its not between 2 very good players.

40 holde, Ontherail opens like 3-4 off the button and I call in the BB with 78s. I Check raise the 7-7-6r flop, he calls. Turn is a 6, I bet and he raises......


We both have a very good grasp of how the other person plays and what their ranges are. I think this an interesting spot because there are so many hands on here, where the response are villain is to dumb to realize this, etc. but that is not the case here. So here's my thoughts in a nutshell.

When I check raise the flop, I think he puts me on 22+, straight draws some% of the time, and maybe AQ/AK. When the turn double pairs, I think he expects me to donk check 22-55 and probably slowdown on most of my straight draws, as I know he will never fold A high here and barreling 8-9 has no chance to work. He also knows I know hell never fold A high.

So when I bet the turn, I think that he thinks my range is mostly, 6x, 7x, and overapirs. We also both know that he is likely to delay to the turn with his entire value range of 88+ and whatever 7x hands he has.

So the real question is, once the board runs out 7766 and our range is basically AQ+ here (a) are we correct to assume that he'll only call twice with 88+ himself (b) we should not 3 bet the turn with the nut full house

I think you are saying you are only betting with value hands and shutting down with bluffs on this turn. I think this is exploitable and you should either be continuing with some bluffs to try and fold out q high and possibly k high, or donk checking most or all of your value range.

I do think certain cards warrant shutting down a lot of bluffs because of how the card affects both your ranges (e.g. I should have shut down the 85 bluff against you yesterday given the board runout) but I think there should still be some balance within the context of the new strengths of your ranges.

I only mean to say I don't think he expects me to have enough bluffs in my range here to justify raising over pairs on this turn. I don't check raise this flop with 8-9 type hands 100%, so given that I shut down on this turn sometimes, I think my range is quite value heavy

Yeah Jon doesn't villain peel flop w some worse than ace high hands? I think it's extremely clear villain should call down TT but it's unclear how he should play AA+. If its right for you to not 3 bet this turn it would probably be right for him to delay til river with any hand. But you can go crazy with that game.

OTR's raise on the turn is strong and he knows you know it. He knows your range is strong since you shouldn't have any bluffs on this turn and very few on the flop given his post flop stubbornness. I would imagine he could get away from his pairs if you 3 bet the turn.

I would call and CR most rivers. I would donk paint rivers because I think OTR may(maybe not) b/f some of them and I would hate paying 3 bets when behind. I don't know what OTR would be raising this turn with pocket pair wise though.

I think you both know we're your at once OTR raises the turn. I don't know how capable or willing each of you are to do any leveling here.

If he has KK on turn, and lets say my range is exactly, 88+, 89s and 89o, he has 50% equity with KK.

As for the turn barrel, I would have to run some numbers, but it can prob go either way depending how often I check-raise straight draws on the flop and how often I think he'll fold K high on the turn.

Right so with AA he is an equity favorite but it's gonna play out badly for him, range gets so narrow so fast it's hard to figure out how he should play his range.

Isn't your flop check raise range VERY value heavy?

Yes, I'm not going to lay out my exact range here, but I will say that in this spot vs this type of opponent I probably check-call draws more than most

I would call with my entire range on this flop (if I continue). Don't know if that is a mistake. If I employed a c/r on this flop, I would do do widely enough that Tt should be an equity favorite on the turn. In any event, I think good players get into leveling wars so often that I can't imagine doing anything other that putting in more action immediately. If he folds, show him the 8 and buy him a shot.

If I cr flop with all my 6x, 7x combos and very over pair as well as every straight draw I can have from 45s to 9-10o, TT is going to have like 35% equity against my range on the turn, so I think there's no way to you have a range here TT is an equity fav against unless your just gonna cr like j-10o and A2o here which seems horrible.

I think this fact gives weight to his argument to wait til the turn w your continuing range then.

Chop it up!

except I expect otr to check back turn at a higher frequency vs me than most in this spot.

Well then you should be peeling way looser and getting free cards, he can't beat you both ways

Which is one of reasons I tend to call flops with straight draws.

If ontherail is a good player he would never raise turn

Please tell me more. I wish to subscribe to your newsletter.

Sorry I misread I thought this was a made up hand. In that case onthrail must have a really good reason to raise for example pp 2-5 or else why would he care that jon would cb most of his semi bluff/Ax/or overpair+. You would accomplish everything by waiting till river

It is made up. Just wanted more.

I don't see how you can 3 bet the turn. Is there any non 7 hand that you would 3 bet the turn with? I also think ( maybe wrong) that lumping all his hands into 88+ is wrong because I feel that 88 and AA are pretty different here

I agree with the first part of your OP, I don't think it really matters too much. With 2 very good players, that are also familiar with each other and their possible ranges, then I don't think this needs to get too complicated. You tend to start out-thinking yourself and trying to get that one more BB of value out of the hand could end up costing you a BB or two the same % of time you get the extra BB or two out of it. I just 3B the turn and go from there.

BTW - I also think there is a pretty big difference between 88 and JJ and AA, so I would not lump it all into 88+ in terms of if he will only call twice with those hands.