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Old 07-21-2012, 10:58 AM   #1
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Do They Know I Know What They Know?

20 live. Two hands that involve a villain I have pegged as a solid player.

The world limps. If not the world, let's say 6 players, including solid player in CO. Super loose, kind of whacky, and usually passive old man raises small blind. I 3b BB with 66. The world calls, except for solid player, who back-caps, now the world calls.

Flop QQ5ss board. The world checks.

Turn Tc, old man leads, I raise.

Hand 2. Different passive old man raises UTG, 2 cold calls, solid player calls, the world calls, let's say 6 total, and I complete the BB with 82s.

Flop T52r with one of my suit, checked to UTG, who bets, only 3 callers, I overcall with a plan to check-raise a deuce or 8, or go runner-runner my suit.

Turn 8. I check, initiating phase one of my master plan, UTG bets, fold, fold, solid player raises, I stand up on my chair, grasp my head and scream WTF!?!
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Old 07-21-2012, 11:03 AM   #2
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Re: Do They Know I Know What They Know?

Why are you calling with 82 vs a passive players utg raise?.....FOLD
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Old 07-21-2012, 11:14 AM   #3
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Re: Do They Know I Know What They Know?

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Why are you calling with 82 vs a passive players utg raise?.....FOLD
it is a very multiway pot. what price are we getting?
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Old 07-21-2012, 11:40 AM   #4
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it is a very multiway pot. what price are we getting?
6 besides hero if I read correctly. Should be 12:1
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Old 07-21-2012, 11:44 AM   #5
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Re: Do They Know I Know What They Know?

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Originally Posted by SnowTires88 View Post
6 besides hero if I read correctly. Should be 12:1
yeah, at that price or better, closing the action, any suited hand is an easy call. we have okay playability and more than our share of equity relative to the amount of money we're putting into the pot. if you like, play around in pokerstove with some ranges and you'll be able to prove the same thing.
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Old 07-21-2012, 11:52 AM   #6
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Re: Do They Know I Know What They Know?

Fair enough. I guess we have great relative position too.

I'm rather tight in my blinds. Our games are usually around 5/6 to flop a lot of limping and flatting. I'm giving away a lot of equity then aren't I(in my blinds)?
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Old 07-21-2012, 11:57 AM   #7
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Re: Do They Know I Know What They Know?

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Originally Posted by SnowTires88 View Post
Fair enough. I guess we have great relative position too.

I'm rather tight in my blinds. Our games are usually around 5/6 to flop a lot of limping and flatting. I'm giving away a lot of equity then aren't I(in my blinds)?
yeah, it sounds like it. when getting a great price preflop, a lot of hands become playable/profitable.
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Old 07-21-2012, 12:09 PM   #8
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Re: Do They Know I Know What They Know?

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Originally Posted by DesertCat View Post
20 live. Two hands that involve a villain I have pegged as a solid player.

The world limps. If not the world, let's say 6 players, including solid player in CO. Super loose, kind of whacky, and usually passive old man raises small blind. I 3b BB with 66. The world calls, except for solid player, who back-caps, now the world calls.

Flop QQ5ss board. The world checks.

Turn Tc, old man leads, I raise.
i liked the raise when you made it, but looking back I don't think your good most of the time against the shaking old man. He seems to have it an overwhelming amount of the time when he is betting. At least that has been my read.
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Old 07-21-2012, 01:06 PM   #9
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I really don't like 3! in hand 1, what does it accomplish? I remember I was flamed hard here for just raising 66 from BB after a few limped - is the fact that it is now already raised making raising again better?
In hand 2, you are saying that villain has exactly set now because he cannot have an overpair due to preflop and also not AT because he would raise flop?
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Old 07-21-2012, 02:32 PM   #10
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Re: Do They Know I Know What They Know?

It's actually OK to fold complete trash out of position even getting 12 to 1. Pokerstove is only of moderate relevance to the issue, because reverse implied odds (even your 2 pair and trips and flushes are second best a significant portion of the time) and position (you win the minimum and lose the maximum on these hands) are not measured by a Stove.

So no, SnowTires isn't missing "a ton of value" if he folds this sort of hand.

It is certainly REASONABLE to call preflop with 82s here, but it is not mandatory and Stove certainly does not and cannot establish it is a +EV call.
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Old 07-21-2012, 03:11 PM   #11
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Re: Do They Know I Know What They Know?

Go ahead and raise hand 2 as planned. Solid isnt limping 100% with 88, didnt flop a set, and has plenty of
Tx that solidly chose to wait for the turn a la sshe.
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Old 07-21-2012, 03:52 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Munga30 View Post
Go ahead and raise hand 2 as planned. Solid isnt limping 100% with 88, didnt flop a set, and has plenty of
Tx that solidly chose to wait for the turn a la sshe.
It was not limped pot, solid cold called.
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Old 07-21-2012, 04:00 PM   #13
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Re: Do They Know I Know What They Know?

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Originally Posted by lawdude View Post
It's actually OK to fold complete trash out of position even getting 12 to 1. Pokerstove is only of moderate relevance to the issue, because reverse implied odds (even your 2 pair and trips and flushes are second best a significant portion of the time) and position (you win the minimum and lose the maximum on these hands) are not measured by a Stove.

So no, SnowTires isn't missing "a ton of value" if he folds this sort of hand.

It is certainly REASONABLE to call preflop with 82s here, but it is not mandatory and Stove certainly does not and cannot establish it is a +EV call.
I agree with this. I was seizing any reasonable opportunity to play pots with this group, but it's reasonable to wonder if I'm creating as much RIO as opportunity with a hand like 82s.

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Originally Posted by Silver_Man View Post
i liked the raise when you made it, but looking back I don't think your good most of the time against the shaking old man. He seems to have it an overwhelming amount of the time when he is betting. At least that has been my read.
My history with this particular old man is that he bets a lot more without it than other old men, but I still thought I was 50-50 to win against him.

Let's assume half the time I'm drawing to 2 outs, and the other half the time he has AQ or KJ or two big spades. Against his range I'm around 30% equity putting 2 big bets into a 15 bet pot (I'm going to correct my self and say only 5 limpers, so 7 x 4 small bets pre flop + 1 big bet), and that's a great return on my investment if he's only got a made hand 50%.

Problem is the players behind. Will they fold draws like J9, probably not. Will they fold 77, 88, 99? Maybe. Will they fold a Ten? Some, yea maybe. I need only 12% or so equity to make this a profitable play, so even if more draws overcall I'm fine. If a better made hand calls, I'm dead to 2 outs. If I fold a better made hand, I just improved my equity from 5% to 30% (a 3.5 bet increase) by investing those 2 bets.

Quote:
I really don't like 3! in hand 1, what does it accomplish? I remember I was flamed hard here for just raising 66 from BB after a few limped - is the fact that it is now already raised making raising again better?
I have the opportunity to fold some players. But I didn't. So maybe I should be flamed hard. Against this group I often forget how viciously they defend their limps.

Quote:
In hand 2, you are saying that villain has exactly set now because he cannot have an overpair due to preflop and also not AT because he would raise flop?
On the flop there were probably 2-3 players between UTG and the solid player (including me) that he could have tried to fold if he had a strong one pair hand. I was expecting him to try to thin the field if possible. If the passive UTG 3 bets it also tells him something.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Munga30 View Post
Go ahead and raise hand 2 as planned. Solid isnt limping 100% with 88, didnt flop a set, and has plenty of
Tx that solidly chose to wait for the turn a la sshe.
At the time I didn't think about him doing it for this reason given he had enough position he could have thinned field on flop. I also give the UTG raiser credit for an overpair or at minimum, AT, so it seems ridiculous to try to bluff him or raise him with a worse hand than UTG's range knowing UTG will never fold. Or he could have remembered what I attempted to do in hand 1, and decided to apply the same thing to steal his own pot.

In this case, I felt like folding could be abandoning a big pot with substantial equity, raising would only get me action from mostly better hands (though almost certain to fold UTG), and so I called. UTG called. River was a non-flush 4. I check?
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Old 07-21-2012, 05:19 PM   #14
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Re: Do They Know I Know What They Know?

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Originally Posted by lawdude View Post
It's actually OK to fold complete trash out of position even getting 12 to 1. Pokerstove is only of moderate relevance to the issue, because reverse implied odds (even your 2 pair and trips and flushes are second best a significant portion of the time) and position (you win the minimum and lose the maximum on these hands) are not measured by a Stove.

So no, SnowTires isn't missing "a ton of value" if he folds this sort of hand.

It is certainly REASONABLE to call preflop with 82s here, but it is not mandatory and Stove certainly does not and cannot establish it is a +EV call.
sorry, all this stuff is actually wrong.
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Old 07-21-2012, 06:00 PM   #15
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Re: Do They Know I Know What They Know?

BBB - can you clarify? Do you mean to say that the lawdude's logic is wrong, or that it doesn't apply here? I just posted a hand about calling with Q2o in the BB with 7 others already in the pot and was told that hot-cold equity considerations failed. I feel like calling with 82s here is justified due to the suited nature of our hand and that lawdude's logic is simply misapplied here.

DC - interesting hand. The problem here is, there are only a couple of hands that could've been played correctly here by a "solid" player. T8ss and 85ss (with the latter being on the loose side). All sets should be raising flop (especially with two others calling the flop bet in addition to the passive man). Tx has an argument for a FSDR (passive guy won't 3 bet often when behind, and the pot is big enough to justify protecting).

So in short, how often do you think solid player FSDR's here? If the answer is "never", go ahead and fold. Between cold-calling and 3betting, I like 3betting to protect our hand. If 4bet, you likely have 2 outs (if that), so you can fold to a 4!.

Between cold-calling and 3betting, the 4% of equity you forgo by not seeing a river when 4!'ed is compensated handsomely by charging hands that have as many as 8 outs to pay for the turn (overpairs, Tx, etc.), in addition to charging against collective outs (imagine hands like QJ, J9, A5, etc. Charge them)
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