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Credible bluff? Credible bluff?

09-26-2015 , 03:14 PM
Trying something new, if you read this thread don't post in similar small stakes thread.

Player opens 3-4 off the button, button cold calls (his range is top 100%). I call sb with 9-7s (not worth talking about you just have to trust its unfoldable) and very solid player calls bb. Flop is 10s 7d 3s. Checked to button who bets, I check raise and bb 3 bets, button calls.

Turn Jh, BB bets, button calls and I check raise.

I'm quite certain BB has Tx+ here and that I have button beat, BB also bet-folds way more than most.....
Credible bluff? Quote
09-26-2015 , 03:59 PM
I would fold in BBs spot with Tx. However I dont think you beat BB at all... He can have Tx also, maybe a passively played J, or a stronger 7, and he wont fold it.


edit: but if you are sure that you beat button, then i like this move.
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09-26-2015 , 04:57 PM
Just to clarify do you have 9x7s or 9s7s?
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09-26-2015 , 05:07 PM
Sorry, 9s 7s
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09-26-2015 , 05:12 PM
Seems like a weird hand to comment on. You probably have a ton of equity so a bluff will rarely be terrible, but it's going to be really read dependent. Generally I'm not a fan of trying to make a guy fold what he thinks is a big hand. As long as you're only doing this occasionally and have the right image it can't be that bad. Seems like a spot where a bluff will work enough and when it doesn't you get to build a sprewy image in a pot where you still most likely have 12 outs to the nuts
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09-26-2015 , 05:13 PM
Plan for rivers that don't improve you?
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09-26-2015 , 05:23 PM
I am interested how wide your preflop range is here. If you have other flush draw hands like 6s8s, 4s5s, 6s9s, etc. then I think these are better candidates to bluff with because they currently have no showdown value so more to gain by bluffing (if it is true that BB has Tx+ 100% of the time, then this hand also has no showdown value as it stands, but I don't think that's a realistic assumption to make about anyone good. I think they should be check-3 betting a bare flush draw at least some percentage of the time on this flop.)

But if you are folding those other suited hands preflop, then you are kind of at the bottom of what I'd think a reasonable range would be on the turn. I don't think you'd check raise worse than 7x for value on the flop. 89 and J9 might be reasonable hands to check raise the flop with but they now both are ahead of your hand. So if this is the situation, then I think choosing this hand to use as a bluff might make sense.
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09-26-2015 , 05:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ZOMG_RIGGED!
Plan for rivers that don't improve you?
If bb calls turn, checking River and folding to a bet from bb and check raising a bet from button (the last part is to read dependent to comment on but safe to say it's very very unlikely button has a ten or Jack here).

I don't expect bb to call turn with K-10 and fold River. I suppose he could have T-9 or T-8 that could conceivably call turn and fold River but I'm giving up.
Credible bluff? Quote
09-26-2015 , 05:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jon_locke
If bb calls turn, checking River and folding to a bet from bb and check raising a bet from button (the last part is to read dependent to comment on but safe to say it's very very unlikely button has a ten or Jack here).

I don't expect bb to call turn with K-10 and fold River. I suppose he could have T-9 or T-8 that could conceivably call turn and fold River but I'm giving up.
I think you have to barrel the river, because T9 T8 is a big part of BB's range which he will fold.
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09-26-2015 , 07:36 PM
I don't think this is a credible bluff. I just don't see BB folding after a 3! on the flop and then leading on the turn.
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09-26-2015 , 07:51 PM
If this is how you'd play 98s, JTs, J9s, J8s, then I think this is a good bluffing hand because better hands like As7s and K7s probably earn more by calling and check raising the river with two pair or better imo. I'd fold Q7s, J7s, and T7s preflop so the next best 7 in my range with a flushdraw is 9s7s. With 9s7s, you can't really check raise the river without a straight or flush so the implied odds are less for calling the turn so might as well make use of that "bet folds more than most" read. I'd like the bluff with 8s7s and 7s6s too, but I think any more would be pushing it, being 3 ways still on the turn and all.
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09-26-2015 , 08:10 PM
This is fine to do sometimes but also not really worth posting.
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09-26-2015 , 09:07 PM
i get that it's a bluff because bb has a better hand than ours, but vs. their combined ranges we have more than our fair share of equity.

if i'm bb, i'm probably not folding many river cards.
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09-27-2015 , 12:54 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by OnTheRail15
This is fine to do sometimes but also not really worth posting.
pretty sure it's fine to do always
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09-27-2015 , 01:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stinkypete
pretty sure it's fine to do always
Well it's fine to not do always too.
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09-28-2015 , 04:33 AM
As soon as you say "villain bet/folds too much" it becomes possible that bluffing any two could be +EV, so any bluff plan can't be terrible.

Hell, if BB bets river and donk calls, I'd consider a raise there. BB would rationalize that you would ever bluff into two people and that he'll get to see your hand after donk calls. ..At which point you can reveal your sleight of getting the better hand to fold, and worse hand to call!

-I'd also like 4b'ing flop with an assortment of hands which are not top pair or flush draws -- against described villain, we get top pair to fold a lot if a 3rd spade comes.
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09-28-2015 , 02:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jon_locke
I'm quite certain BB has Tx+ here and that I have button beat, BB also bet-folds way more than most.....
You'd have to be more convincing about why you think BB would bet-fold in this particular hand. Three-bet on the flop leads to far more commitment and indicates a stronger hand than in other situations where bet-folding is likely to occur - smaller pots and weaker hands for BB.
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09-28-2015 , 03:24 PM
Because I have a fairly polarized range in the small blind here and the Jack is a good card for all the hands I would check-raise button with, 8-9s, J9s, J8s, J-10 and of course 33/77 which I would delay on flop as I expect him to always c-bet turn.
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09-30-2015 , 07:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jon_locke
Because I have a fairly polarized range in the small blind here and the Jack is a good card for all the hands I would check-raise button with, 8-9s, J9s, J8s, J-10 and of course 33/77 which I would delay on flop as I expect him to always c-bet turn.
Without the "100% coldcall" read, I like a turn check in the big blind's shoes with Tx because of this. Maybe I'm wrong and all the naked flushdraws need to be charged. Also, if the button is really that bad then I'd bet Tx on the turn 100% even though it opens us up to get owned by the small blind's big hands.
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