Was really caught by surprise on River, curious to beat thoughts. Button plays good, on the nittier side pre. I expect he's ironing my bb top 45%

75 holdem (part of mix) he opens button and I call K8s bb. I check call Kh Jh 9d flop. Turn Jd is 8d and it checks through. River is the Jc. I bet he think for few seconds and rises.

Have a hard time believing he's bluffing but have equally hard time thinking he checked The turn with basically J7 or J8

Whats tge turb card?

I'd just call and take a note on what he shows.

He has lots of kings he was trying to pot control?

I'm assuming turn was 8d and river was Jc (so the board reads KJ9-8-J and NOT KJ9-J-J)?

If the former, I think I like checking this a 3rd time and keeping all his value and bluffing hands in play, since I think a 45% open should contain more folds than calls when you bet the river anyway.

Of course, if he's the overly combative type who's gonna try and rep trip jacks or a slow played straight when he bricks, then you're basically betting to induce a raise so you have to call.

Btw- I'm totally open to arguments for why a river check misses too much value (which I'm kind of expecting lol. Again, I'm assuming KJ9-8-J).

I'm not bet folding this. Maybe once in a blue moon...mayyybe. nah. I'm not. I call. showw me.

Whether or not the turn is a Jd or an 8d makes a pretty big difference.

What are you thinking on the flop?

can u build an ideal c/r range on this flop vs a snug button opener? i feel like range/range you gotta delay a lot of stuff. so many Qx, Jx, Tx, 9x hands that figure to be a c/c?

all,
turn has to be the 8d cuz Jd Jc runout is not interesting unless J_L really wants to make a post about folding for 1 bet with top boat to quads

I mean, yeah, x/r the flop. There are Kx hands in my range that I x/c with, but this isn't one. Probably the reason we're confused by the river raise is because we didn't x/r the flop.

What do you do with all your equity draws? We have roughly 30 flush draw combos, 16 open Enders, and another 50+ gutshots

i dont know how to split the draws into c/c vs c/r, i guess my point is just that theres so many of them compared to value hands that you either have to build a pretty sophisticated range split thats somehow balanced or you just have to start check calling a lot of stuff.

the alternative is suggesting expanding the value c/r range but theres just so many hands that figure to get weird on the turn/river.

I mean I agree with what you are saying but top pair vs a button open doesn't seem like it's going to "get weird". We def have to split our range between flop jamming, and doing a bunch of things on the turn but I think delaying til the turn with everything when we can't peel this flop with like 30% of our range is a bad over correction

im not saying top pair is gonna get weird, im saying if you widen the value c/r range to accommodate all the random combos of stuff you gotta semibluff c/r, suddenly you're checkraising things like JT or J7(?) and too many turn river spots get real button clicky poo flinging prayers

i agree with you that a range split is optimal, just the nature of the button having a snug preflop range makes the split sorta difficult to figure out unless you are a stoxEv wizard.

i'ma assume the gto robot play is a sophisticated range split thats above my head and probably includes a flop c/r with K8, and unless hero is real sharp on these range sims then maybe exploitatively delaying a wider portion might be ideal ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I normally check raise flop, but I check call TP some% of the time
Ok this board. I'm not gonna comment with ratios (likely wrong anyways) but suffice to say I c/r K7 more often than I check call; just happened to have this unusual runout on the Check call decision tree.

I couldn't tell you if having a mixed strategy with K7 on this flop is bad or not but there are benefits, one being its probably good god is if he checks back JT on the turn here. Il

Well if I was villain I would probably be thin raising A9 since it seems like you can't have a king and a jack is combinatorically unlikely. So I guess the question is 3 bet or call? I would call

This

And this. We don't need to delay too much on such a wet board. We'll get paid off light since we can have so many semi-bluffs and our x/c range can already raise lots of turns. Also, it hurts more when the turn checks through.

Hi Jon. Care to comment on the buttons flop bet frequency and selection? I think this should be the focal point of the flop discussion.

Ramble incoming:

If he cbets 100% then I check raise the flop 100% with this hand.

If he bluffs from the bottom of his range and checks back the in between stuff then I check raise the flop 100% with this hand.

If he bluffs strong draws sometimes but checks back with junk and strong draws sometimes then I mix it up with some check calls and some check raises.

The reasoning is this:

If he plays a pure strategy then we best exploit that by playing a pure strategy of our own; mixing is both unnecessary and non exploitive.

If he plays a properly mixed strategy then we must play a mixed strategy of our own; mixing begets mixing; mixing is both necessary and max exploitive.

As played I'd call the river.

What is our check/call range on the flop? How about a checking range on the river?