Villain in this hand is kind of on the passive side by nature. Game is big for him, but he's starting to play a lot more aggressive as the session goes on (could be fighting back, could be feeling more comfortable with the stakes). Earlier saw him go 5 bets on the flop with AA on J83 from the BB in a blind battle, and bet/call the turn T to be shown flopped top two. We don't have a ton of history, but he knows I take my play seriously. I don't suspect him to get out of line often at all post flop. Hero has been playing reasonably tight.

Action: hero has K J

Hero opens UTG 7 handed, villain 3! BB, I call.

Flop (6.5 sb): Q 9 3

He bets I call

Turn (4.25 BB): K

He checks. Standard bet/fold?

What kind of range do you think he three bets with? Anyone who 3bets out of the BB here is usually an average and it means big ace or big pair.

Without doing any math b/f'ing seems bad unless it makes him super set heavy. Will he o for a c/r with AA or AK? Some players might because you have a pair now always, some won't because it's not really a board you should want to give free cards on and you now have a some hands in your range that can 3b.

Ultimately I think if you're going to be b/f this a lot I think you should just check it back and collect when he bets his AQ like the nuts

I'd check behind. I think you are wa/wb versus his range and I'd only want one more bet going in. If he has something like TT, he is likely going to fold to your bet here, but if you check, he will either donk or c/c a lot of rivers because your line looks weird. The other part of his range is screwplay. He rarely has anything like AT that has significant outs.

I dunno I never would fold this turn. You have a decent amount of outs vs. AA and you even have a few outs vs. a set. When he CRs the turn you are getting over 7:1 on a call so I think you at least have to see the river. I think what you do on a river blank may be the more interesting decision - really you aren't beating anything but a bluff at that point.

-hf

Oh also I autobet this turn but checking is an interesting idea.

My thinking was his range was something like:

99+/AK/discounted AQ.

And that he will bet 100%. When he checks, I think I can collect calls from AQ, JJ, TT, but I also expect him to be incredibly set heavy when he check raises turn. I felt like I could safely b/f, but obviously it's abysmal if he's capable of doing this with AA, or ever can just spazz with a hand like AJs (if he can have it). At game speed, there seemed to be too many combos of AQ/JJ/TT to not try to collect value from, relative to 9 set combos.

If you're trying to collect from those hands the important question then becomes what will he do with them if you bet twice? AQ probably calls down, but TT and JJ probably won't. They will call most rivers though if you check it back.

Really the only hands you hate giving free cards to are AT and AJ but those are sometimes too low for this kind of player to 3 bet pf here. Really depends on how often you think he'll go for the c/r

This hand really illustrates why good player don't three bet anything here pf. If he had called pf he would have gotten to c/r flop, and you'd have raised his turn bet and he'd be able to 3bet here if wants with what is a range that includes a lot of monsters. As played when you check behind here he's making the minimum with his strongest range

If he does have AT or AJ he may also stab at the river when you check back the turn too hopping to fold out a similiR hand or 77

I can definitely get behind checking behind the turn. I'm glad others are in agreement. I'm a bit of a bet monkey, though; something I'm trying to fix.

if you're deciding between b/f and check back, then please by all means check back. b/f'ing seems silly to me.

i would bet.

Argument for betting:

The type of player who 3bs PF is usually the bet bet bet type. Would discount the chances of him trying a sexy value xr and think he basically never tries a sexy xr with AJ.

The type of 3b bet bet bet also tend to get married to their hand. I can see them calling down with TT OR JJ.

It's still pretty clear that b/c is the nut worst line to take, imo.

50/100 running at foxwoods?

I sort of disagree. At game speed I ptobably bet the turn more than I should, which means I b/c more than should which is probably terrible

But now that I've had a couple hours to mull over this sort of specific spot I think I like a turn checkback a lot more, so that's means if I'm betting in a forum post so I've decided it's a result I'm fine with

ok. i disagree. unless there's something about this villain that you didn't mention in the OP. what makes you so sure this guy is going to donk x/r here? what's your range and where are you in it? what's this guy's turn checking range and how are you doing against it?

I think betting turn is much better than checking back. I mean how often are we really expecting to get check-raised here? It's kind of a weird line, I wouldn't expect to see it that often. I think we have a slam dunk value bet when it's checked to us on the turn. Even if once in a blue moon we get check-raised and put in a crappy spot, I think we lose way more value by not betting the 90%+ of the time we don't get check raised and our hand is best.

Once we get raised, it's probably close between calling down and folding but we do have a gutshot and are probably near enough to the top of our range that we can call down. I mean I am probably bet/folding A9 on this turn, so I have a pretty big bet-fold range before I think about folding KJ.

One thing I think about in these spots: let's say he has a set. If he was a good player, the action probably would have gone 2 bets preflop, 2 bets flop, 3 bets turn and 1 bet river, for a total of 6 big bets I'd lose with this hand. If he takes the line he's chosen, I'm going to lose 3 bets preflop, one bet flop, 2 bets turn and 1 bet river for a total of 5 big bets. So really, it's just a cooler because I have top pair and it's not good. If he is making a 1 big bet mistake with his bizarre lines, I'm ok with that result.

Obviously the calculation is not this simple, but sometimes we're just supposed to lose a lot of bets. If we lose a lot, but not as many as we would against someone better, I think we can feel ok about it.

Yes this

FWIW there's no way my hand is best 90% of the time he checks turn, as I think he'd check raise all of his sets.

On this texture I probably fastplay my own flopped sets (99/QQ), with not much else being raised (exploiting that he should have a strong range here, and that there's a good chance he'll check raise turn way behind when I have a set). I may also fastplay KK/AQ looking to b/f turn (he would never x/r turn with worse than KK, IMO). So in my estimation, I'd be betting turn with a range of:

JTs (nuts) [4]
KQ (top two) [9]
AA (planning on raising brick turns) [6]
KJ [12]
KT [12]

So I'm definitely over-folding my range here, which means i'd need a strong reason for doing so. My guess is that he would screwplay all of his sets, which are 7 combos of hands. Against these, I've 4 outs out of 44, or 9.1% equity. I need 12.1% to continue. Against aces, I've a full 20.7% equity to continue. So we should determine the density that AA makes up of his range that we need to continue. S = set %.

0.091 * (S) + 0.207 * (1 - S) = 0.121

-0.116S + 0.207 = 0.121

-0.116S = -0.086
S = 0.741

So our inflection point is that if sets make up > 74% of his range, we must fold. If he elects to check raise AA 1/2 the time, then sets make up 75% of his range. Possibly factor in the times he's decided to take a stand "this hand", and it may become a call. If he only check raises AA for value 10%, we have a clear fold IMO, as the density of sets in his range is far too high.

Just my opinion but I think this a bad card for him to try to c/r turn with, as you should have at worst a bunch of gutters or gutter/pair type hands that will call, but maybe not be so quick to bet.

I'd take that in mind and bet.

Yah the problem w/ these threads is it's not really that likely you're getting c/r'd except it is here because you posted the hand. Still checking does have merit if he'll pay off river w JJ/TT when he would've gone c/c, c/f vs two bets which does describe lots of players.

Easy check back and laugh if his range is that strong.

Even with all those strong hands, we're still "ahead" of his range, though (TT-JJ/AQ presumingly make up a greater density of his checking range than sets). Kind of a WA/WB spot in a way.

I don't see this type of player mentioned in the OP getting cute with trying for the sexy c/r on the turn. This is heads up and even a set can't risk a check behind here imo. You also say your image is fairly tight, so there is no info that would lead him to believe you would be auto-betting this turn once he checks. Unless I really know my opponent well and know he is going to bet this turn a much higher % than checking it back, I keep betting my hand and not trying for the c/r on the turn.

I also don't like checking back this turn because it is so draw heavy to his hand and you are ahead a large % of the time here. He is most likely to have AQ, JJ or 1010 most of the time, with the small possibility of AJ or 88, 77. I would eliminate hands better than yours until you see this player actually make the c/r move on the turn against you or another player. Nothing you have posted leads me to believe you have seen this play from him yet. Until then, I gotta go with my hand being the best at the moment.

I think if you bet the turn, AQ, JJ and 1010 pay off BOTH streets most of the time, not just one. You would be surprised how many descent to good players still call down JJ and 1010 so in their mind they do not get 'outplayed' here, even if they know it is not the right thing to do. I would rather bet the turn and then if an A, Q, or J comes, then you can consider checking back the river. I think you are giving up too much value if you check the turn. What happens if you check back the turn, and then one of these cards comes and he checks again. Are you then betting the river with the same confidence you would have betting the turn? Now nothing worse than your hand is paying off on the river.

To summarize - I bet, bet here until this type of player does something that makes me adjust my play against him, like the c/r, or not paying off the turn and river with hands like AQ, JJ, and 1010, or folds too much on the turn with lessor hands that I may get a call with on the river if I check back the turn, then bet the river, etc.

Check back. If you bet don't fold.... But don't call river ui