Saturday 40 at the Borg - game was crappy for a while, but a couple donators had joined the table, and it was starting to get good at this point. I was stuck like 4+ racks at the beginning of this session, but had come like halfway back, and I was showing down some pretty marginal hands in the process.

I was definitely playing less than optimally preflop at this point because I don't play live all that often and wanted to increase variance because I hate losing sessions, but I think the better players at the table could at least recognize that I was capable of playing well, and was a thinking player.

Run-of-the mill player raises UTG+1, I 3-bet 33 (lol) in the next seat, loose-terrible player calls behind me, good/tight button caps, blinds fold, everyone calls.

Flop A83, no suits. Check, I lead, bad player calls, button raises, UTG+1 folds, I 3-bet, bad player folds, button calls.

Turn K, don't remember if it put a flush draw out there, but it doesn't matter much. I bet, button raises... what's my plan for the rest of the hand to get an appropriate number of bets in?

do you realize how many fallacies are there in this sentence?

does BU cap 88 here? if he's good/tight i doubt he'd cap 88. it's a big big dog vs. 3 other players and even if he got a 4card flop, i think 88 is not in his range here. if it is, then it changes stuff.

assuming no 88, he has AK or AQs as the hands you beat and AA as the hand that beats you. i'd assume having seen you show down marginal hands he thinks you have a worse ace. he surely has at least 1 ace in his hand and may be very happy to raise with AQ even on the turn if you've been showing down some weak/middle ace hands.

given all this, i 3b the turn and call down to further raises. i'd expect him to call the turn and river bets and muck in a ratio of 5:1 assuming no A/K on the river. if the A or K pairs on the river i'd b/c though it may be that check call is best. too lazy to think that one through.

Yes. I knew I was leaving in three hours and I play up there like 3-4 times a year, so I wanted to play a lot of pots at that point, if that makes any more sense. I know it's not optimal; just trying to describe my mindset/image at the time.

I'd guess he'd be more likely to call 88 than cap it, since he'd likely be set-mining that hand and wouldn't mind a blind or two coming along, but he certainly wouldn't be folding it given me and the terrible player in the hand. Capping it wouldn't be totally out of the question though.

that adds another maybe 1.5ish hands so doesn't make a big deal (3 hands discounted 50% as he folds or calls 50% and caps 50% in my naive assumptions). i still think his putting you on 33 is very unlikely and is mostly thinking "yay $, worse ace" much of the time. the rest he's thinking yay value and gets it lol.

still 1 more raise on the turn and bet or bet/call the river

If he caps the turn, do we just throw another $160 in there to see showdown, assuming no ace/king hits the river, or are we toast?

sorry, i thought that was implied. that's the same # of bets as raiseturn bet/call river. you're REALLY unlikely to win but pot's too big. i dont think you can justifiably call down though from the turn raise given his thoughts of how you've been playing.

Snap cap 88

Especially if they want to three bet the turn with bottom set in a capped mw pot after significant flop action. Ez game.

If he's "good/tight" then calling is the least likely choice of the four options.

... The fourth option being stripping naked and doing a ****ing muppet dance around the table. Cause really? Cold calling? Really?

This is what i think he has. So i call down when he pops turn.

Board: Ad8h3sKs
Equity Win Tie
MP2 55.42% 55.42% 0.00% { 3h3c }
BU 44.58% 44.58% 0.00% { AA, 88, AKs, AKo }

If this is what he has then you need to 3bet turn and call down vs more action.

Board: Ad8h3sKs
Equity Win Tie
MP2 74.59% 74.59% 0.00% { 3h3c }
BU 25.41% 25.41% 0.00% { AA, 88, AQs+, AQo+ }

If he somehow has a wider range than this then 3betting turn is even more fun.

I paused and attempted to think this one through, and decided that five bets going in on the big streets here would be a disaster. So I went "creative"/unorthodox, and called the turn bet with the intention of lead/calling a non A or K river. Is there any merit to this line, or is it just another couple streets I butchered?



The whole hand just felt funny from start to finish, which is why I posted it. And now it's apparent that my thought process might've been flawed too.

do you snap cap 77? slow cap 66? call 3 cold with 55? 44? 33? 22?

EDIT: to put this in perspective, one of the factors is the probability of overcards flopping (which is bad given that you have at least 3 opponents, one of them loose and one of them ok):

KK 23%
QQ 43%
JJ 59%
TT 71%
99 81%
88 88%
77 93%
66 97%
55 99%
44 99%
33 99%
22 100%

88% is not that different than 93% so if 88 is a snap cap, where do you draw the line? i agree this is close but snap capping 88 here makes it tough to make that back unless you win unimproved some % of the time. if you are nearly guaranteed a 4 card flop then yes, that makes a big difference too. you're getting 3:1 here for your cap and have to make literally another 8bb to make it about breakeven. that comes down if you take a 4card flop but so does the #bets going in(*1-3).

all you guys doing the hot/cold thing, you are not fully taking into account the perception of the 'good' player w.r.t. the op. i think it's pretty clear the wider range is doable here since the perception of the op's range/looseness is pretty wide/high. from his perspective, we can be pushing A8. even so, it is still not all that close b/c (assuming non-discounted 88 in his range and not dealing w/ prob of drawing out w/ A/K):

raise:
- 3(AA) + 3(88) --> lose 5bb on turn/riv
- 9(AK)--> win 4bb on turn/riv

this adds up to a .4 difference between calling down and 3betting in favor of 3betting.

so i still 3b.