[QUOTE=boc4life;49725696]c'mon, this is a quote from earlier in the thread
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Originally Posted by Mason Malmuth View Post
My standard deviation in the $20-$40 limit game at The Bellagio is approximately 8/BB per hour. I believe this mostly has to do with the fact that I'm much tighter, especially in early position, than most of the pros.
Let me ask you a couple of specific questions.
First off, the starting hand guidelines I'm currently using are very similar to what is in our book
Winning in Tough Hold 'em Games: Short-Handed and High-Stakes Concepts and Theory for Limit Hold 'em by Nick Grudzien and Geoff Herzog. The main difference for my own play is that I have extended the ideas on three betting before the flop and this information is currently not published.
But what I observe is that almost everyone, even those who are thought of as good players, are looser than these guidelines in early position. (That's not the case in some of the other spots.) And my speculation is that one of the things that happens to many players is that they play a number of hands that have either zero or slightly negative expectation, but these hands drive the estimated standard deviation up and if anything lower the expectation by a little bit.
In addition, and this may be counter intuitive for some, I also believe my three-betting strategy lowers my standard deviation compared to others and I actually do a fair amount of three betting, much more than many of the players I play against. But this explanation would take too long to write here.
Question No. 1: Are these starting hand requirements insanely tight? For if they are I have found them to be extremely effective for the games I'm in.
Second, much of my play of hands today is governed by what was published in our book
The Intelligent Poker Player by Philip Newall. Much of this is a game theory approach and it's certainly different from the way most regulars play, but again I have found this stuff to be extremely effective.
Question No. 2: Are you familiar with this book? and if yes are you saying that this advice is all screwed up?
To compute my estimate of the standard deviation I use the maximum likelihood estimator for the standard deviation that was originally published in my book
Gambling Theory and Other Topics in 1987. I also believe that this is the same formula that most everyone else is using.
Question No. 3:Are you familiar with it and is this the one you use?
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I know you've written a lot of books and articles about poker, but you're simply incorrect about this topic. Knowing how to play poker well is only part of the battle. Have you ever known a poker player who talked a really good game, seemed to really know what he was talking about when you'd discuss hands with him, but whose results just weren't very good? I've known like 10 of them.
I've known a number of people over the years who match this description, and when playing in a game with them their play did not match their talk. This has nothing to do with me.
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Grinding out a living at poker, especially in bigger, tougher, shorthanded games with smaller edges, is really hard.
I'm well aware of this and have written on this very subject. But unknown to you is that in my career (and before this website existed) there was a time which lasted a number of years when all the money which our publishing company made was being reinvested by me into the company for things like inventory, art work, editing, and so on. And if I wasn't successful at poker, Two Plus Two would not exist. So I don't need to hear how tough some games can be.
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I stand by what I've said. While you may be right that some mental coaches are selling snake oil, the fact is that a strong mental game is absolutely crucial to be successful playing poker at any kind of higher limits. To deny this is to be completely wrong.
I never said it wasn't. I just wrote and published a 259 page book with the title of
Real Poker Psychology. If I thought this was a worthless subject, none of this would have been done. However, if you took the time to read the book you'll see that I'm saying what is right in this area is much different from much of what is currently out there and much of what is being sold (sometimes at high prices). Also, there are a number of ideas and concepts in my book which have never been published before.
At the higher limits, where there are many tough players and real win rates are quite small compared to the stakes, I agree that a strong mental game can be a separator. In fact, in some of the interviews I did, I even gave specific estimates of what I thought win rates might be and how much they could be increased by a strong mental game. Everyone needs to understand that a small increase in your win rate relative to the stakes when the stakes are very high can add up to substantial money over a period of time.
But my book is not written for expert players at these very high stakes. It's written for marginal players in much smaller games who are currently struggling with poor results and are also trying to improve them.
MM