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Betting for thin value until I know where I'm at, then hero folding Betting for thin value until I know where I'm at, then hero folding

11-26-2014 , 07:43 AM
It has been pointed out to me that that's a bad strategy online because tricky opponents will exploit it. So I need to figure out a new line to take with hands like this:

Villain is LAG and tricky. Maybe good, maybe bad, don't know. Playing 40/30 1.5 AF.

Hero (playing 30/20ish) raises 77 UTG+1, Villain calls BB

HU flop 692r

Check/bet/call

Turn Qo

Check/bet/raise/I fold

I do this kind of thing a lot. Similar hands I could have here are AK or smaller pairs - and I typically let them go to a turn raise. If called I usually check back the river UIP. Sometimes I go for razor thin value and bet again, depending on opponent and board texture.

Is it enough to know that they could specifically be trying to exploit me to call down? Or should I consider checking back those turns and inducing?

Please help me learn how to think about this better and maybe plug a leak.
Betting for thin value until I know where I'm at, then hero folding Quote
11-26-2014 , 10:22 AM
against villain described, i'd call turn and safe rivers. a lot of his peel hands likely turned into legitimate draws (might even have a pair of 6's). and i think 77 is a little too much of a hand to be inducing with. think it's a pretty easy value bet.

Last edited by steveistheman84; 11-26-2014 at 10:30 AM.
Betting for thin value until I know where I'm at, then hero folding Quote
11-26-2014 , 12:03 PM
Against this guy I want to see a showdown but I don't want to pay 3 bets. I would check the turn and call any river.
Betting for thin value until I know where I'm at, then hero folding Quote
11-26-2014 , 03:04 PM
Checking turn is too weak.

You're getting 7-2 on a call down. What range are you putting him on. Does your 77 beat 7/9 of his range? If the river is a T, J, or K, do you beat 8/9 of his range?
Betting for thin value until I know where I'm at, then hero folding Quote
11-27-2014 , 10:29 PM
^ Well those fractions are off/the opposite. But yes if you're calling turn you should basically be calling all rivers that aren't like exactly a 10 that hits any semi bluffs that he would have, like 87 or 810. As on any other kind of river he is continuing with his bluffs. So obv have to be calling turn baring that in mind, and preparing to risk 2 more bets not 1, and factor that into your potential odds.
Betting for thin value until I know where I'm at, then hero folding Quote
12-18-2014 , 03:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mubsy Bogues
I do this kind of thing a lot. Similar hands I could have here are AK or smaller pairs - and I typically let them go to a turn raise. If called I usually check back the river UIP. Sometimes I go for razor thin value and bet again, depending on opponent and board texture.

Please help me learn how to think about this better and maybe plug a leak.
I'm no expert at these situations, but I can offer an observation from your use of "I typically..." -- using a fixed strategy of either bet/fold or bet/calldown is exploitable. Opponents will adjust if they see you do the same thing a couple times. Use the board cards to determine your best play, rather than indiscriminately playing bet and see.

I'm not so convinced this is a good turn card to bet.

You can do the formal analysis but if you've played enough hands you have an idea of what's going on.

Villain defends BB with a wide range. The board is rags, so he probably likes it better than you do, knows this, and knows that you know. That said, the check/call on the flop is often a loose peel. Would he checkraise with 6x, 9x, or a straight draw?

How did you feel when the Q hit? A lot of those loose peels either picked up a pair, or a gutshot+6 pair outs so expect to encounter a semibluff often. Based on how often villain delay-checkraises a flopped pair/semibluff, you can add or remove those from his range and proceed accordingly.
Betting for thin value until I know where I'm at, then hero folding Quote

      
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