Quote:
Originally Posted by Mubsy Bogues
I do this kind of thing a lot. Similar hands I could have here are AK or smaller pairs - and I typically let them go to a turn raise. If called I usually check back the river UIP. Sometimes I go for razor thin value and bet again, depending on opponent and board texture.
Please help me learn how to think about this better and maybe plug a leak.
I'm no expert at these situations, but I can offer an observation from your use of "I typically..." -- using a fixed strategy of either bet/fold or bet/calldown is exploitable. Opponents will adjust if they see you do the same thing a couple times. Use the board cards to determine your best play, rather than indiscriminately playing bet and see.
I'm not so convinced this is a good turn card to bet.
You can do the formal analysis but if you've played enough hands you have an idea of what's going on.
Villain defends BB with a wide range. The board is rags, so he probably likes it better than you do, knows this, and knows that you know. That said, the check/call on the flop is often a loose peel. Would he checkraise with 6x, 9x, or a straight draw?
How did you feel when the Q hit? A lot of those loose peels either picked up a pair, or a gutshot+6 pair outs so expect to encounter a semibluff often. Based on how often villain delay-checkraises a flopped pair/semibluff, you can add or remove those from his range and proceed accordingly.