And I just love how your argument is still "you can't don't have enough hands! You can't extrapolate from your data! But we can extroplate from my no data..."

Frank says the bot doesn't call with J5s anymore. Why not?

As the GTO 6max bots get better, they should converge toward true GTO in the same way that Cepheus and it's predecessors did. The question isn't whether it is 100% perfect GTO (it isn't), but whether it could be useful as a guide in spots where humans don't have enough empirical data. It seems that you guys are both disagreeing with my premise (humans don't have enough empirical data) and my conclusion (therefore observing a good bot could be useful). I think I've already provided good arguments for the premise being true. Here are two pieces of evidence that I think bolster the conclusion:

1) Some 6max bots are made by the same lab and with presumably similar methodology as Cepheus, which has been proven to be incredibly close to true GTO.

2) Their play in other spots seems very reasonable given the way top pros play. If their methodology arrived at a BTN opening range and BB defending range that are extremely close to what the top pros are playing today (without simply programming it in), that tells me that it probably is a reasonable methodology to use. If it then suggests some pre flop plays that most top pros have never tried and for which there is no strong evidence against, I'm willing to think that they may be worth a try.

If you are capable of providing any sort of strong evidence that J5s is not a winner in OP's spot or J7s, say, is not a winner in SB against a BB raise then that would be something. If not, it seems ignorant to completely ignore this type of learning tool. However, as someone correctly pointed out, a hand that is part of GTO strategy could easily be a loser for we humans who can't play close to GTO post flop.

Is this the state of MSLHE, a bunch of people arguing whose bot is correct?

Look, J5s is just not that hard to figure out. A LAG who raises up to 1/3 of his hands raises on average less than 1/3 of his hands. And that range includes a lot of better jacks and no worse jacks, some better fives and no worse fives, and not a lot of pairs against which you have six outs. You fare not that much better against the coldcallers.

And let's look at the multiverse to see what happens when we play J5s from the worst position possible. We flop top pair and we're not happy, we flop middle or bottom pair and it may still be a losing proposition, we hate any significant action we get with a flush draw.

We post $5 and throw in another $15 to protect it, and then get sucked into a 5-out draw and end up chasing it with another $60.

This is exactly what we want the fish to do.

What range% would we flat here if we had a $0 investment in the SB position? What range% in the BB? Call the first R(0) and the second R(20).

I know my R(0) is going to be pretty snug, and my R(20) really wide.

Is it too simplistic to assign R(10) to be near the midpoint?

I really dont know this managed to drag 50+ posts. Look, gto aside, there are the factors:
* hand strength
* caliber of opponent
* pot odds.
* how well we play

We agree hand strength is subpar but not trash. Nothing leads me to believe my opponents are gto bots, john lockes, or nitbags. So caliber of opponents is average of whom will pay us off. We're getting a decent price. So long as we play well, calling should be marginally profitable.

Jesus Christ. You have a jack and a five and are In The worst position versus many opponents.

Any 2 card can win syndrome ?

We are getting nearly 7-1, how can we fold this hand?

PokerCruncher-Advanced-iPhone V.9.5.1

(Equity, Win, Tie)
Player 1: 22.0% 21.2% 2.11% {99-22, AJs-A2s, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 72s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, ATo-A2o, KJo-K2o, Q9o+, J9o+, T8o+, 98o, 87o} [Loose limper]
Player 2: 30.5% 28.3% 4.84% [AhTh]
Player 3: 27.1% 26.0% 2.38% [QcJd]
Player 4: 16.7% 13.7% 6.42% [Ad5d]
Player 5: 3.68% 1.80% 4.05% [Jh5h]

Board: [? ? ? ? ?]
Deal To: River
Dead Cards: {}

Monte Carlo Simulation: 300000 trials

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
100%	20.03%	112,390	17,389
100%	19.95%	111,919	17,407
100%	20.00%	112,262	17,263
100%	20.00%	112,163	17,466
Jh5h	20.02%	111,438	19,189

****, I can bs with equity calculators too. Realistically:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
25%	21.92%	124,478	15,618
30%	20.74%	117,124	16,214
30%	20.85%	117,799	16,133
30%	20.79%	117,422	16,241
Jh5h	15.71%	90,652	8,322

Ill even give you the benefit of the doubt:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
15%	22.90%	130,228	15,913
20%	20.66%	116,862	15,722
20%	20.71%	117,182	15,773
20%	20.81%	117,701	15,867
Jh5h	14.93%	86,686	6,836

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
Jh5h	14.52%	85,460	4,336
6%	24.96%	141,825	17,458
10%	20.22%	113,719	16,739
10%	20.11%	113,061	16,667
10%	20.19%	113,565	16,669

And before you say "hot/cold equity isnt everything", how much of a nitbag do you want to admit to for folding out a minimum of 14.5% equity when you need 12.5% direct odds to call?

Flow of Jon's arguments:
1. We have a J and 5.
2. Just accept I said folding is better
3. [insert irrelevant info about Btn vs sb, what bots and experts do, when OP is talking about a pf raiser with 3 coldcallers]

Anything concrete you want to add, or you want to just conclude with "Winter is coming?"

No you basically summed it up. 1. I think you will be do better folding this pre-flop 2. You are going to continue to call pre-flop anyways 3. The flop is Ah Kd 2s. The bb leads and 5 people call.... we are getting 17-1 what do you do on the flop?

It just takes one hand to dominate you to create a ton of RIO and there are a ton of hands in raising:cold calling ranges that dominate J5s, so why pay a premium to play it in the worst position?

But you have to call the flop to realize your equity. Or the calculator would have lied!

1. I think you'll do better folding this preflop.
2. You are going to come off as an arrogant dick anyways
3. The flop is Ah Kd 2s. Having tough postflop decisions doesnt make pf call incorrect. We estimate 1.5 outs for backdoors as the ceiling of our equity. We'd need 15.2:1 to call and are getting 17:1. BE call is around 1.4outs. I'd think folding is more defensible, for a couple of reasons:
1. I don't see villains peeling this board with hands like 76s-T9s. These are flush draws we can dominate. That leaves fds dominating us.
2. Our bd equity for straight draw is a lot lower, as other broadway draws are 1 fewer card from completing.

So what do you do on that flop?

The problem of RIO is reflected in the equity calculation. By the turn, we are going to be getting ~10:1 to see a river card, making calling with 5 outers marginally correct. Worst position sucks but is mitigated by protected nature of pot.

I still think sway factor is quality of opponent. If I think I will more often lose bets to higher flushes but extract the minimum when I hit, then folding is defensible. Equally applicable if our opponents are tough mo#$@%÷× that may otherwise be bots (aka online), then fold.

Fold.

But we are getting 17-1 with 6-7% equity in the pot?

More common hand 2. The flop is Tc 9s and 2h (big flop for us relatively) /'d there is a bet some folds a raise and some folds and it's two cold to us with J hi no draw... what do we do?

We're getting 8-1 and can easily have 20% equity here (against AT and K9 for example). Absolute worst case scenario we have 7-8% when agaisnt AT and JQ.

Given the amazing pot odds of 8-1 and relatively large amount of equity (between 8-20%) this seems like a pretty standard flop peel.....

I'm guessing you fold both of these spots which makes it hard to purely rely on your hot cold equity justification for calling ore floo

Reread my post.

Plug it into an equity calculator and go from there. Instinctively, I'd fold. Since we are not closing the action, our true pot odds is estimated north of 2 small bets. Our opponent's range is stronger, so our equity is lower.

Me folding two spots hardly means anything. But your point is essentially that hot/cold isnt everything. I agree on that. I don't think it's enough to warrant folding pre. So how do we prove or disprove it? There are flops we grit our teeth and take 2 to the face. (e.g. 2s5c8h).

Lets change the fact that blinds are now 2/3 structure. Do you still fold pre? What about Q2s? "Call because it's Q2s, and Q2s > J5s"?

I know you and like you so recognize that I'm posting this for your benefit, otherwise I'd probably just roll my eyes and move on.

1. It's not a minimum of 14.5%. You've excluded the BB. He will have a wide range so it won't **** your equity disproportionately, but it will still dilute. You can probably also decapitate the coldcallers but I'm guessing you'll still end up below 14.5%.

2. 12.5% direct odds includes the BB and UTG calling and excludes rake. Your immediate odds are 8.5:1.5, on the assumption BB and UTG call you get 10.5:1.5. So yes, calling with 14.5% equity when you need 12.5% is a good case for calling but to get those numbers you've made the BB and UTG call and then BB fold.

3. But let's switch off the bots and switch on your brain for a second. For one thing, at the table, us non-cyborgs have to live with an estimate. Aside from the miracle flops, what does out hand look like on the flop? Are we happy flopping a J-high flop? Are we happy flopping a 5-high flop? One spade? Two spades? What position do we reasonably expect to be in? The truth is that our median hand is like a 5-outer, which is barely better than our starting point with teenage equity. Do you really think this is a case where our implied odds are positive?

4. Let's go back to the sims and play around. What are equi-equity hands to J5s? That is, if you're arguing J5s has way too much equity to fold, what else falls under this category? Does J2s make the cut? 72s? J5o? I don't have a sim available but I'm going to venture that by your metric, you're calling any two suited, any Broadway, any ace, and unsuited connectors. That hopefully should make you realize that the people who pipe up about hot and cold equity have a point, and that this is how we want the fish to play, not us.

5. I will also bet, from having run sims like this before, that hands like 65s/54s and probably even 75s/53s and 65o/54o have more equity than J5s. Ask yourself why is it that hands that are dominated by J5 do better than J5. Again, it underscores the badness of The Jack and The Five.

6. Assuming you play most of your hours at the Oaks, let me point out that the 2/3 blind structure does make quite a bit of difference. Instead of 6/48, you need 4/36, which gives you over a full percentage point of bonus equity. Assuming a revised sim shows like 14% equity, I could be convinced that it's enough of an edge (over 11%) that one could call profitably. But it's not enough of an edge over 12.5%.

A couple people have posted to this effect.

We play a dying game and post in a dying forum for that dying game. Is it really so bad that some smart, interested posters have chosen to debate an issue of LHE poker epistemology? While it may be unimportant whether J5s is a call or fold here, the issues of how we know what we know in poker and how confident we should be in that knowledge are important issues.

There are only a few new LHE posts per week in these forums. Should we really be curtailing intelligent discussion of any kind?

+.9 as long as aggression is factored in to "quality of opponent" and with the asterisk that if you don't already have a plan it's probably a fold because you're most likely going to screw it up enough to make a losing play.

But really this argument can made about most marginal spots. If you're good and the players are bad, you can get away with a lot more.

It's probably racist to people who don't like to think. Dumb lives matter

This is it.
You are OOP, bad hand, very hard to always bring home your "deserved" equity pf due to different factors.

Yes, this is enough to warrant a fold.