Results:

UTG passive player called my river bet. The pre-flop raiser folded.

My two-pair was good. Though, UTG commented that he had been "rivered again".


My thoughts:

The pre-flop call is probably a long term -EV play, but only marginally so against five opponents playing marginal hands themselves.

I think everybody here can agree it's an obvious fold for two bets cold on the button and an obvious call for one bet in the big blind. In the small blind, for 1.5 bets, I'm getting and immediate 8.5:1.5 (or 5.67:1) and likely getting 10.5:1.5 (7:1) if Big Blind and UTG call.

I confess that I had been card dead for the previous 60-90 minutes. When I saw the J5s, my immediate thought was to fold. Then, I took a look around the table, thought it was very likely to be six-way action with no more pre-flop raising and chose to make a loose call in a multi-way pot.

Those saying it's not a close decision are way overstating the case. I think it's close but a small -EV play.


On the flop, I'm probably beating the LAG pre-flop raiser (who has a huge range) and the Button LAG (who likely would have raised if he hit the flop). Though, regardless of what they've got, the hand is certain to see a river card.

Raising to push out the Big Blind and UTG seems the better play than calling. At the time, I was too happy to keep it cheap for myself.

However, there was some risk that the LAG pre-flop raiser could three-bet with anything (A6o, K8o, 33) and make things trickier going foward.


On the turn, I was ready to check and fold if somebody represented real strength or if good draws appeared to be out there. However, the change in the betting action looks great for me. UTG's bet looks like he has a pair of Tens (possibly T9 for two pair) and is unlikely to be on a draw (though Tcxc is possible). My five outs are all good against a huge % of his range.

The LAG pre-flop raiser's simple call on the turn means he hasn't even got one pair better than 9s and probably no flush or straight draw. He looks like he's drawing slim, possibly to two or three outs against UTG's presumed Tens. I'm not fearing KQ and certainly not clubs.

When the Button LAG folds, I'm getting 10:1 to call. Even with only four clean outs, I've got a call here. I expect to have five outs a majority of the time. Only rarely will I have just two outs (or none).

I don't think folding in this spot is a serious option.


The river brought the most problematic card possible. But, against these two opponents, I think I'm good and will get called a majority of the time.

I think you gave a pretty good analysis except that I think KQ is actually a pretty likely hand for PFR and I think there's a decent chance (maybe 5-10%?) that UTG has QJ or even 87s/KcJc/KcQc/Jc8c/etc, unless you think he is too passive to semi bluff those. Even a 5% chance of you having the best hand is actually very significant in a pot of this size given that it's a pretty close call as it is.

This is what is called a good problem to have.

With two passive players on my left acting before the pre-flop raiser. And with the pre-flop raiser and Button playing laggy, I think simply betting out with a flush draw and hoping to get raised is a simple strong approach.

Whether I three-bet the flop would depend on where a raise and calls are coming from.

Seems to me that any hand thst is "an obvious fold for two bets cold on the button" would also be an obvious fold for 1.5 bets cold in the SB. Shouldn't the difference between best position and worst be worth half a small bet?

Some guys with big databases http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...&postcount=138 seem to suggest otherwise. Obviously the value of position might vary depending on how many people are in the pot. Also, in the SB there is one less guy left to act behind you.

I'd guess that anyone who thinks it's an unprofitable call pf is correct. Same for the people who think its a call

shouldn't this preflop discussion be in the small stakes limit forum?
i'm tempted to raise flop if i haven't seen dude c/ back anything. i remember my first year as a surprisingly winning player, i cbet 100% in 9 way pots.

Do you think that the collective millions (as in multiple millions) of hands and tens of thousands of live hours from the people saying to fold preflop is sufficient to form any conclusions or should they simply rely on pot odds and intuition.

Please answer me this. Lets replace J5s with 3-7o here. I'm sure everyone would say fold pf but how are we to know. We likely have a database od 0 hands where we called pf in the sb 7 ways so it would be intellectually arrogant to state that its a fold. Or perhaps after you play millions of hands of poker and win you have a pretty good idea of whats going to be profitable and whats not.

Its been years but didn't the empirical data in stox show A2o and A3o to be slight losers (or break even at best) opening the button

As an aside bad jacks are particularly bad because the dominated a ton by the handspeople tend to cold call more

No, I don't think it's sufficient in a spot like this. Empirically, the only way to tell for sure if a hand is a winner is to look at a large enough database. What I am saying is that nobody has a large enough database of similar spots to have any idea how profitable a hand like J5s is here. That is especially true because most 2+2ers are folding this hand here. Let's say I have played 10 million hands of limit holdem. Aside from looking at a database (which still might not be sufficient for a spot like this), how could I possibly know where the call/fold threshold falls?

Again, playing millions of hands of poker does not somehow magically confer the ability to know if a marginal pre flop decision is correct or not unless you are able to accumulate a statically significant sample of hands. As for 73o, you are right that we cannot say with absolute certainty. Given sufficient pot odds (which we may not ever get in a 10 handed game), 73o would be a call as well. Unfortunately, there are almost no full ring LHE games that run these days so it's gonna be hard for us to build up meaningful samples, even if we group hands (combining stats for J2s-J6s with Q2s-Q7s for example).

We can see from data, however, that J5s seems to win a lot more than even 74o in multiway pots such as 3 handed when we are BB, BTN raises, and SB cold calls. Thus we can reasonably conclude that we would prefer J5s to 73o in Dynasty's situation. So we can be more confident that 73o is a fold than J5s, but as you say, we cannot be certain.

My main point in posting in this thread was just to point out that we are all basically guessing about the profitability of J5s here, so we shouldn't be so confident that we are right. My other point is that conventional wisdom (which is really what's grounding most people's opinions in this thread) has historically been much too tight in spots like this with suited hands, so we should be especially careful.

Anyway, this seems to be devolving into a philosophical discussion that not all that many people are interested in. Maybe we can agree to disagree so as not to clog up the thread.

I am really surprised that the pre-flop spot is being debated. We don't need massive databases or GTO solutions to 9-handed poker to know that J5s is unplayable here. Basic poker fundamentals are more than adequate.

The more multiway a pot becomes, the more hands like J5s, J2s, 82s, etc. blur together. This is because the portion of their equity derived from high card strength all but evaporates at a certain point. This is why we call hands like 73s in the BB in multiway pots, but fold hands like Q4o (and this is backed up by databases). Being 6-handed, the high card strength of J5s has all but evaporated. Equity calculators are not helpful here because hot and cold equity assumes we will be able to realize our equity when the board comes kq5 or aj9 or we have backdoors. But in reality, we are rarely going to be able to tell when we are dominated or drawing thin/dead. We are often going to be ejected from the pot with weak pairs or backdoors. We are going to lose the bloated pots and win mostly smallish pots (RIO).

J5s and J2s are extremely close in strength in this spot. J9s is vastly superior to J5s in this spot not only because it is a stronger hand, but because it is actually possible to realize our equity a much higher % of the time. Please understand that if you are arguing that we should play J5s here, you are also arguing that we should consider playing J2s and T4s. I would not find it surprising at all if 43s is actually better than J5s in this spot. The main issue with 43s is that 6-handed to the flop, flush over flush actually becomes a problem. Otherwise, it would be better (but still comically unplayable).

As far as databases... this is absurd to even bring up. Nobody is ever going to have a database large enough to analyze the value of J5s here because competent players don't play J5s here. I have never in my life witnessed a strong LHE player make such a moronic cold-call from the SB.

I can only assume that people are overvaluing J5s since it can make a good button steal. But in the case of a button steal, we have a real chance to realize most of our equity due to position and being heads up. We go from being dominated almost always to just sometimes. And most importantly, our high card strength actually matters since we will only be 2-3 handed at most.

Very strange thread... all 3 post-flop spots are more interesting than the pre-flop spot.

I'm both surprised and also not the least bit surprised

You likely don't analye your database correctly, if you have one. Sure we don't have thousands of hands of calling J5s in this spot to analyze but we don't need it becusse we do have enough data to determine what hands are profitable from the sb in multi ways single raised pots and then we just use some common sense. For example, let's assume JTs is a solid winner, J9s is a small winner and J8s is somewhere beteeen a tiny loser and a tiny winner... we have 0'samolw of J5s but our database clearly proves J5s would lose money.

What's your winrste with A5s in this spot (should have large sample). If it's positive than surely you've experiment with calling K5s here in this spot... what's your winrste....if it's positive...... eventually you are able to establish a point st which a hand is likely no longer profitable (most likely J8-J9s).

After millions of hands and tens of thousands hours of live You should have little to no trouble establishing what is and what's not profitable in this spot.

Some people in this thread have already done that and you just brush it off as intellectual arrogance.

Jon Locke and ZOMG are two posters I've NEVER seen admit they've been wrong about anything. Contrast that to someone like death donkey who is a lot more modest. I definitely see where the arrogance point comes from. (unguarded I can't comment on)

I'm willing to hear out both sides. Share with us part of your database. How many (millions of) hands do you have 6 ways with 5 loose players. How did Kxs fare; or J8s. uG seems to think that J9s is break even and that J8s 6way would be -ev. Show me a database to back that up.


My own experience is with looking at 3way bots. The best bot I look at flats J5s sb vs a 43% BTN. I extrapolate to a 6way pot with loose callers and loose opener to be at least close/debateable.

does GTO mean most profitable?
Does a GTO strategy fair better against an other entity trying to play GTO or against standard monkeys?
Is it possible that you're much more likely to get exploited more in a three way pot than a 6 way?
It easier to win a pot without a hand in a blind steak situation or a 6 way?

which bot do you look at?

If all of these bots are flatting J5s vs a button raise why doesn't a single expert human do it. I'd assume either becusse (a) the bits could be wrong or (b) it's only correct to do so becusse bits can play a balanced strategy postflop that no human would be capable of doing.

Either way I'm out of touch with the online games but I imagine all of the crushers playing 2-4 aren't taking turns calling J5s from the sb vs a button open. Are they leaving money on the table or are they actually calling here?

To me, it shows that the small blind discount is more significant than people (pros) realize.

Aside:
A mistake I see being made is when reducing our immediate odds

If on the button and we expect 6 other opponents, we'd get 6-1. If in the small blind expecting 4 other opponents, we get 5 2/3 -1. But these are different implied odd situations.

The idea is that post flop we need to regain our call and at least ~5 times the call amount. But making up 5 times (two big blinds) will be measurably more difficult than making up 5 times (1.5 big blinds). Likewise, big blinds should be defended quite liberally.

So many times I've seen posters here explain that they play the small blind as if they had no money invested. It's lazy and not supported by the math.

I guess here's my question: let's assume every winning high stakes pro folds J5s in the sb vs a button open at 100% frequency (which has been my experience over years of love and online). Is it safe to conclude that every single winning high stakes pro in the world is wrong?

Love and online

I would fold zero suited hands in BB. From the sb it will depend on what kind of bad the cold callers are but I doubt I'd ever fold a t o gapper, I'd call most three with the right players, call all kings, and prolly all queens

I disagree with the assumption that every high stakes pro plays this way. I also disagree with the assumption that we should play mid-stakes the same way that one plays high-stakes.

Finally, I point out that there was a period of time when "all" the pros thought TAG was the way to go, before LAGTAG came and ate their lunch. Were they wrong? Probably not at first, but probably moreso as time proceeded. The game evolves.

But they do. Literally every single one I've encountered in the last 5 years

I'm guessing most of your pro friends play raise or fold in the SB, too. You flaunt your databases, but one would need to have millions of hands cold calling SB v BTN before you could conclude anything.

A+ phish

You didn't answer my question. Do you think every pro that folds J5s in the sb vs a 43% button open is wrong to do so?

And I'm not talking about just my friends. I'm talking about ever winning player I played agaisnt online (most of whole were better than me and incredibly tough) and every single live player I've played against playing medium-hi stakes live