Answering bonus Q first, as that answer sets up the Option I prefer.
Don't delay, precisely bc by x/r flop you know have chance to b/3! turn (Option 1). We might not have huge equity edge over villain's turn raising range (which could be heavy w combo draws, pr+draws), but we often have best hand and get value.
My guess is that his reasoning is that we get same when he carries thru on bluff on river. We lose a lot when beat and 4 bet. We lose enough when we are best and called down or drawn out on.
i talked to him about it and this is exactly his reasoning.
If we have even a semi-reliable read that villains only raise the turn for value then there will be tons of board textures where an overpair is not strong enough to 3bet on the turn.
there's a lot of different types of players with the same reads that alan gave. and i can see taking all 3 of these options with different opponents. this is a very read based decision imo, and i don't think there's enough info on villain for anybody here to give a definitive answer. all i can say is that the majority of the time i'm taking option 1.
If we have even a semi-reliable read that villains only raise the turn for value then there will be tons of board textures where an overpair is not strong enough to 3bet on the turn.
i never said we should 3b the turn with an overpair no matter what the board looks like
With a pure (and conservative) value range for villain, I'm getting about 69% equity for hero. You?
56% with this range:
JJ+,99,77,33,AJs,KJs,QJs,J9s+,J7s,T8s,97s,AJo,KJo, J9o+
Drops to 49% if villain plays T8o OTB (which is in a 40% range). We've got to either start giving him some really junky Jacks or have him raising all his 88, TT, and 9s and even then I get to only 60%.
56% with this range:
JJ+,99,77,33,AJs,KJs,QJs,J9s+,J7s,T8s,97s,AJo,KJo, J9o+
Drops to 49% if villain plays T8o OTB (which is in a 40% range). We've got to either start giving him some really junky Jacks or have him raising all his 88, TT, and 9s and even then I get to only 60%.
Suppose if you're willing to fold to the 4bet then sure. I'd be pretty surprised to see villain as described show up with the 9 here, unless maybe it includes hearts, but if we add only 9s that include hearts then our equity shouldn't change much.
Edit: I've been gone for a bit. When did we start referring to individual opponents as they and them? Was button a conjoined twin? If so, I might raise river.
Edit: I've been gone for a bit. When did we start referring to individual opponents as they and them? Was button a conjoined twin? If so, I might raise river.
Always best to refer individual opponents as "it" imo; helps maintain objectivity.
