Oaks 30-60, 10-handed. Good game, some of the best local regs are in Las Vegas for the WSOP.

Villain is unknown to me; seems like a good player, hasn't made any obvious mistakes, has been gossiping about WSOP LHE events with another reg (who is a 2p2 lurker). My image is basically tight; I haven't been playing many hands, but the only hand I've shown down so far in this session was a loose-seeming blind defense in a multiway pot that turned two pair.

Villain opens UTG; folded to hero on button with AQ; hero 3-bets; blinds fold, villain calls. 7.5 small bets in the pot.

Flop: A J 6

Villain checks; hero bets; villain raises; hero calls. 5.75 big bets in the pot.

Turn: AJ6 5

Villain bets; hero raises; villain 3-bets!

What now? Supposing I call the raise, what should I do if the river card is (a) blank, (b) a diamond, (c) a queen, or (d) an ace?

Well, I doubt he does this with AT. In other words, you are obviously behind, and the issue is how far behind. You have no outs against JJ, 66, or AA (the last of which is unlikely because 2 aces are spoken for), and 3 outs against AJ or AK. We probably have 6 or 7 percent equity overall here. What does he have that your hand is good against? Seems to me that IF you are going to wait for the turn here, it's a clear r/f unimproved.

I would have just 3-bet the flop, BTW. But that's not your question, so I'm not going to argue that point unless others are interested in it.

If we have flop value, I would just take it on this board texture rather than waiting for the turn.

But given the board, raiser's position, and the other reads im not sure we do.

I'm not sure about the first raise. People are saying 3 bet the flop instead of waiting for the turn. Once the villain raises the flop I think we're a dog. UTG opens 10 handed with what range? 88+, ATs+, AJo+, KQs. Maybe you add in KQo and A9s? Then a tight player 3 bets from the BTN. Flop comes AJ high rainbow and you get c/r. At that point, what hands do you beat that he c/r for value? Unless my read on his ranges is wrong, you just play WA/WB from the initial flop raise. I'm playing with combos and I guess I don't understand ranges for this guy. Can someone who wants more action lay out his PF open and then what he c/r vs. AB's image?

Re-reading your post, did you have AQ with the actual draw or are you planning on bluffing diamonds on the river with AQ to rep the turned FD.

yo alan, i dont get the plan for the hand (i.e. why smooth call/raise the turn)? good playing utg raise + flop k/r + dry ass board = insta call down mode. you're lucky to win this at all. i dont want more than 2 bbs going in on big streets

You are only beating at. Either call down from flop raise or fold turn depending on his ability to have some random a2s in his range.

Agree with others re:just call down from flop C/R. Also, its pretty important whether you think villain caps his big hands OOP here. Like if he caps JJ+/AK pre, our hand is a lot stronger and turn could be a value raise.

For posters advocating a flop 3-bet, I think 3-betting this flop vs a good thinking opponent in this spot is a mistake with any hand in our range. It leaves are calling range very weak and doesn't give us any leverage to semi-bluff some turn cards.

Given the flop checkraise, if I am going to raise again I want to do it on the turn, not the flop, because on the flop I want to merge my value range with my peeling range.

While trying to avoid being results-oriented (it's too soon, I think, to post results yet), I am liking the feedback I am getting so far here and elsewhere.

Alan, I think you could call the flop c/r, call turn, and evaluate the river against a lot of live players. I'd love to see your thoughts on hand ranges. If I were him, I'd respect the heck out of your PF 3 bet. Thus, I'm not sure that I'd ever value raise ATs against you on the flop. Maybe this guy is capable of raising QQ to try to get you off KK? I'm not even sure he has QQ b/c he didn't cap. I started working through this in equilab and you're a decent favorite vs. his PF opening range. Once he c/r for value, I can construct ranges where you have 0% equity on the river after getting two blanks.

Well, I've already said I disagree and it's largely based on flop texture, in that I'd defer on As9h7s but not AJ6r, imo.

But then there's some tension/shift as the ranges get narrower and our opponent *has* to barrel with 100% of what he has. Then it shifts again as ranges get so tight that we don't have the value to defer or take now and instead weigh calling down, betting when checked to, taking free cards, and folding.

So maybe he's narrow enough that we'd want to defer everything above a threshold value hand on this texture. But that still leaves the question of whether AQ is above or below the threshold. I think almost all of us are saying it's below.

You really know you've ****ed up a hand when the Math House boys think you've ****ed it up.

(I'm not linking to it, because it's a friendslocked LiveJournal post, and I'm not going to unlock it just for this. Think of it as my saying "The lurkers oppose me in email.")

Thinking about the hand with the vision of hindsight, I'm seeing that, because I have the Q in my hand, there is no plausible diamond draw that might be semibluffing here. (T9 is conceivably in a good player's UTG opening range, but they aren't k/r'ing the flop with it.) Villain's turn 3! range is all value, and it has me crushed.

Alan, why would a good player open T9s UTG in a 10 handed 30 game? Does he have big fold equity due to the game being nitty and his position or does he expect a MW pot? Suited connectors need position more that other hands of equivalent hot/cold value.

The issue with talking about villain's three betting range is that you got in a position where he could 3 bet you. Sure his 3 bet range kills you. You have perfectly narrowed his range where he never folds better and may never call worse. On purpose you have distilled his range where he never makes a mistake. Heck, he may not even fold chops, though he probably should.

I'd still love to see what you consider a good player's opening range 10 handed in this game. I think it is strange that you're putting in hands as normal opens that aren't close to opens for me when I assume I'm much more LAG that most players in that game. Is it just a difference in positional awareness?

Doug, if this will help, in 9 handed 20- and 40- games in Southern California, many of the LAGs and some of the LAGTAGs will open T9s UTG. So I can certainly see that happening in Alan's game.

call a K/r on the flop and raise the turn ins a play synonymous with playing a fairly big hand when he 3 bets you on the turn you have to decide if he has a monster or thinks your full of it.

what does your PF 3b range say you might have?

I've seem this same scenario go do at 2-4 online so many times where both the players show up with bubkis. but if you trust him as a straightforward player its OK to fold. if hes a tricky deceptive player perhaps you should of just called down on the turn.

I'll read raise the flop or the turn again because of this post ..
so thanks for that.

Maybe KJ

Grunch

I would call the flop raise and commit myself to sd. Ya so iow I think we are smoked but this hand vs this villain is too strong to fold. If the flop weren't so dry ... A little more cordinated or wet I'd take your line but I think I'm just calling down here. Too mubs ... Simplistic?