Friday night 40 game. Lineup is meh, and, although I don't prefer this game to the juicy 20 that is going, I do prefer it over the 2-3 hour wait list for the 20.

7(?) handed at the time.

Villain is one of the toughest players in the pool; however, we don't play together often, so I know him more on reputation than anything. I don't know what he knows about me or what he thinks of my game.

I get dealt Jh Jc in the CO.


Action: Folds to me, I open, villain 3! SB, BB fold, I call.


Flop: Kd Qx 8d

Bet, call.


Turn: 7d

Bet, call


River: 3d (low diamond -- I think it was 3d)

Check, I bet ...



Thanks!

Good hand

Agree

seems like a very nice out-of-the-box thought.

but it actually looks like you have way too many bluffs.

i only see about 30 combos of flushes that just got there on the river, and you have like 30 combos of pairs lower that JJ that you still have.

Against me this is 100% a value bet.

Are tough/good players folding a K here? Q?

If Villain is able to x/r bluff river, then I would agree with RobA. Most people don't have this move though, so betting JJ here isn't awful.

Ontherails -- you cray. A lot of 8x and 7x should be checking turn. What are you heroing river with?

What?

The river bet seems awfully optimistic to me.

My point is I'm certainly not folding anything better than a pair of jacks vs. anyone competent.

This is what I was trying to say.

Me too.

Hey guys -- I was doing some thinking about this hand. This was a (potentially failed) attempt at me trying to be more balanced versus the tougher opponents in our player pool.

Looking back, my range given my action through the turn probably looks something like the below (I'd imagine):

Non Flushes:
66,99-JJ (3 combos each -- 12 total)
98s, JTs (call it 5 combos with the discount for when I raise JT on the flop)
AQ, QJ, QT, Q9s (20 total combos -- 6 of the first three hands and 2 non diamond Q9s)

Flushes:
44-66, 99-JJ (24 combos)
Ad(JT98x)o, Ax(JT9)o (21 combos) — I’m raising AdQx on the flop

So, 82 total combos.

50 flushes (45 + say 5 combos of turned flushes I delay until the river)
21 Pair of Queens
15 Pairs Jacks or less
2 combos of Jack hi (the JTs combos that I don't raise flop with)

The pot is 7.5 big bets if I bet, so he's getting 7.5-1 to call the river. This means, from a GTO perspective, I'd need 7.5 value bets per bluff to make him indifferent to calling/folding. So, if I:

- Bet all the 50 flushes (and bet/fold the 44-55 -- roughly 1/10th of my vbet range since I'd be getting 9.5-1 on a call if he raises)
- Check the 21 queens

This means I'd need to have 6-7 combos of bluffs. It seems I need to bluff the JTs, 98s, and the 99, but check the TT, JJ -- else I'd have too many bluffs. Does this seem reasonable? Also, I wanted to use this a checkin to make sure I'm understanding the game theory balance section from Further Limit Holdem correctly.

I don't see A8s or A8o in your breakdown. What are you doing with those hands? Do you have J8s or T8s in the CO? 87s?

Yes, up2ng -- good point.

87s I raise the turn, but A8, t8s are all in my preflop range here and add more weak hands to be bluff candidates. It makes my JJ bet even worse imo.

I didn't eve notice there were 4 diamonds on the board. Like OTR said, I think you'll get called with worse more often that he folds better.

Did you call the turn to bluff the river?

Is Clarkmeister theorem dead?

What do you do vs a riv bet here?