Let me preface this with the following disclaimers:

1) I don't care about this hand, I'm just using it as an example.
2) I don't think that there is an approach that is 'always' (80%+) right. So, I'm not looking for a "Do this" answer, but a "consider these factors before acting" answer.


UTG limps, I raise AKs, button and both blinds call, 5 big bets in the pot.

Flop 932, one spade. Checked to me, I bet, only the two blinds call. I'd call them both typically bad. A little too loose, a little too passive, a little too unable to read hands, a little too tilty, etc. They could have straight draws. They could have naked overcards. They could have 44 or K3s. 6.5 big bets.

Turn is an Ace, completing the rainbow. SB checks, BB bets into me.

What do we do here? And, again, I don't actually care what we do here, I care about how we decide what to do here.

(I think if a King comes instead, it's an easy raise. Get the potential gutshots out from the SB. But the Ace makes it more likely BB made aces up or a wheel).

Thanks,

Josh

I think it's pretty close between: (this is the order I realistically choose depending on a read). These assumptions are if SB folds to my Flop raise.

1) Raising Flop, betting Turn/River, and cry calling any 3! from BB on Turn or his River check/raise. River check/raise may be an easier fold (see #2)

2) Raising Flop and possibly calling his 3!/folding to a river Cbet. If he calls Turn and check/raises the River I could also maybe fold.

3) Check calling down

I don't think he ever shows up with A9 or he would probably check/raise the flop. I think 22, 33, and definitely 45 should wait for a turn check raise whether your image is LAG or TAG. Worst possibilities are A2/A3 but with the SB cold calling this may take some A's out of his range as well.

Given your reads and the action so far, there are no factors to consider. Raise the turn donk 100% of the time. You have a bad player betting in to you, you likely have the best hand, and you have another player that is potentially drawing to beat you.

If, after you raise, the betting gets capped back to you or something weird you can obviously find a fold at some point, bit the turn is a raise every time.

My first reaction is that c-betting the flop five ways is not a terribly good idea, even though the flop is terribly dry. (It hits the blinds' calling range rather better than it hits ours.) If we have the best hand, we're going to have to dodge two draws to as many as 24 cards.

Bad players in the blinds called our flop bet. What do we suppose they are calling with? Now, on the turn, we make our hand, and the BB donks.

We are certainly not folding, but I don't like the idea of raising. Is the BB betting a bare ace? If so, why did they call our flop bet. We have to be prepared for the possibility that they are an idiot and may have called with a bare ace; but they aren't likely to be a total idiot. I am thinking that their most likely holding is aces up, possibly even aces and nines.

Definitely call the turn bet. If the villain checks a safe-looking river I'd even consider betting our TPTK. But do not raise on the turn; the likelihood of value-owning ourselves is just too high.

Sorry, my initial post was a misread.

Haha I thought it was EXACTLY aces up. That said I'm not folding

This is exactly where I was at in my thought process.

I called, the SB check-raised, the BB called, and I mucked.