88 multiway checkup spot - Medium Stakes Poker Forum

20/40 fr
Hero opens 8c8d from utg+3
MP, HJ, SB and BB all call

Mp and hj are loose but 3! All strong hands, any 99+, aqs+, sometimes kq/kj/qt, maybe a9,at,aj

Sb will play any 2 and might not raise even his strong hands
Bb will play any almost any 2 given these odds but always raising qq,kk, aa.. sometimes raising jj, ak (very unlikely to raise worse aces)

200 in pot
Flop is 9h6h3s

2 checks and hero cbets
Everyone but sb calls

Turn
9h6h3s5s

Bb checks

What now?

On the flop: what is our plan if raised? Can checking be better?

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02-09-2017 , 07:48 AM

leavesofliberty

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Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 6,296

Bet for value. You very likely have the best hand. As you describe it, they're calling with some weird broadway cards behind you, or suited aces/connectors, or lower pocket pairs. Against that range, I think you're likely good.

A nine likely raises here on the flop, so while it's possible someone has a nine with a weak kicker, I still pull the trigger because most players raise the flop with a vulnerable top pair. Bet/fold the turn. You can check/bet the river depending. Most river cards will represent a scare card. Basically on a 3 isn't a scare card.

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02-09-2017 , 02:08 PM

Frankie Fuzz

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 534

Bet for value. That's pretty much a dream runout for 88.

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02-09-2017 , 06:28 PM

asmitty

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 4,446

Quote:

Originally Posted by leavesofliberty

There are two flush draws and you have 6 outs to beat 9x. You cannot fold.

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02-09-2017 , 06:30 PM

tw2238

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 1,890

bet turn , call if raised (pots huge). if popped on turn , someone has FD and someone has value hand. so some of your outs are dead.

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02-09-2017 , 07:02 PM

jdr0317

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Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 8,231

Keep betting. Call for one bet back to you.

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02-09-2017 , 08:24 PM

bipolarbearclaw

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 340

Did you mean UTG+2? UTG+3 aka MP would be 1 spot before the HJ

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02-10-2017 , 01:15 AM

monikrazy

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Quote:

Originally Posted by bipolarbearclaw

Did you mean UTG+2? UTG+3 aka MP would be 1 spot before the HJ

Not sure exactly
It could have been utg+2 or mp with 2 callers behind, don't think the btn played

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02-11-2017 , 08:16 AM

leavesofliberty

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Quote:

Originally Posted by asmitty

There are two flush draws and you have 6 outs to beat 9x. You cannot fold.

You're correct. On average I'd say about 5 outs, 12 small bets = 6 big bets, you bet, and if raised, at that point you're being layed 9-to-1. You have to bet/call, and prepare to call the river, because the pot's laying 10-to-1.

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02-12-2017 , 08:12 PM

#10

leavesofliberty

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Actually you likely have 6 full outs.

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02-15-2017 , 03:53 PM

#11

Smarty 2.0

adept

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 1,075

If you don't know to bet here, I'd move down in stakes significantly.

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02-16-2017 , 07:39 PM

#12

stinkypete

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Quote:

Originally Posted by leavesofliberty

Actually you likely have 6 full outs.

lol

OP: easiest bet ever but maybe with the right tells/reads you could checkraise

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02-17-2017 , 11:05 AM

#13

bipolarbearclaw

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 340

You have blockers vs. 78 open ended which is the only card helped by the 5 other than turned set with 55 or lol two pair 5s and Xs. Other than a made straight you'll have 6 outs vs. virtually everything and you have the best hand here somewhere between 50-100% of the money.

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03-02-2017 , 09:18 PM

#14

avoidthe9to5

[x] 9to5 avoided

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 1,662

grunch:

check flop. as played check turn. this hand suffers massively when faced w\ a xr and is an amazing hand to take into our checking range.

If everyone is extremely passive and honest, barrel away instead =D

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03-04-2017 , 04:39 AM

#15

stinkypete

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Quote:

Originally Posted by avoidthe9to5

is an amazing hand to take into our checking range.

why do you need amazing hands in your checking range when the pot is yuuuuge, you're most often ahead, and there's 3 guys wanting to fold hands with tons of outs and pay with weak draws?

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03-04-2017 , 05:53 AM

#16

avoidthe9to5

[x] 9to5 avoided

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 1,662

Quote:

Originally Posted by stinkypete

why do you need amazing hands in your checking range when the pot is yuuuuge, you're most often ahead, and there's 3 guys wanting to fold hands with tons of outs and pay with weak draws?

The difference in equity for 88 vs a xr range compared to a betting range is drastically different. Betting with 88 is a wholly dominated strategy. It's also drastically dependent on turn cards. Also it has the 3rd benefit of strengthening our checkback range and allowing opps to valuecut.

I do not subscribe in any sense to the "protect our hand" bs. Nor do I adhere to the "but giving them a free card sucks" idea. I'm only approaching the game while considering my ranges and avoiding equity dominated strategies

that being said in a 20/40 game I'm rarely checking this hand. they are too passive

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03-04-2017 , 08:11 AM

#17

Smarty 2.0

adept

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 1,075

Can you please elaborate on the comment that betting with 88 is a wholly dominated strategy?

I don't grasp how that is true on the flop.

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03-05-2017 , 07:47 PM

#18

leavesofliberty

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Smarty 2.0

Can you please elaborate on the comment that betting with 88 is a wholly dominated strategy?

I don't grasp how that is true on the flop.

I think he's gone now. He theoretically puts various hands into various ranges to maximize output, and thinks that this belongs in the check-back range. Unfortunately, there's no way to really know without simulation data, and knowledge of psychological nuances. The game theoreticians know what they are talking about, imho. But it appears to be an extremely steep learning curve. I don't get it either.

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03-05-2017 , 09:31 PM

#19

stinkypete

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I would love to see whatever "GTO" analysis supports checking the turn here (mostly so I could point out why it's horribly horribly wrong).

I understand the argument against 1 or maybe even 2 opponents in a smaller pot, but when you have a vulnerable monster like 88 and have 3 opponents whose ranges are full of AJ/AT/KQ/KJ/KT/QJ/QT/JT type hands that want to fold away all kinds of equity it's a yuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuge GTO disaster to check here.

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03-05-2017 , 10:30 PM

#20

leavesofliberty

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I'd also like to see it.

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03-07-2017 , 03:35 AM

#21

phunkphish

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 2,902

GTO assumes opponents are smart. That's unlikely to apply when there are so many cold callers with terrible ranges who play terribly.

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03-07-2017 , 08:42 AM

#22

Brad Childress

adept

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 1,129

GTO assumes nothing about your opponents.

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03-07-2017 , 11:52 AM

#23

leavesofliberty

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Ya GTO assumes nothing about opponents but can be inferior to exploitative strategies against weaker foes, so it is not always the weapon of choice.

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03-07-2017 , 09:34 PM

#24

monikrazy

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Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 28,051

results: I bet the turn, 2 calls behind and tight player check-raised and I tank-folded, it was hard to estimate how many outs I had, he hit 56 2-pair on the turn (both other players called the raise).. I don't remember the river except that I wouldn't have won

I was slightly curious if this was a spot to deviate from the standard double barrel because I wondered if the opponents having weak ranges in this spot increased the chances of them having 9x hands , also opponents could just call down with 9x hands if my range included many stronger hands such as overpairs and 2 good overcards with flush draws

Quote

03-08-2017 , 01:07 AM

#25

Frankie Fuzz

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 534

Quote:

Originally Posted by monikrazy

By my count you are getting 12:1 on the turn. You could definitely have the best hand since there are so many draws on the board. If you don't have the best hand, you could have as many as 12 outs (against 53s for example). This is a really bad fold.

Quote:

I was slightly curious if this was a spot to deviate from the standard double barrel because I wondered if the opponents having weak ranges in this spot increased the chances of them having 9x hands , also opponents could just call down with 9x hands if my range included many stronger hands such as overpairs and 2 good overcards with flush draws

Most opponents would raise the flop with 9x. Since they didn't, you can heavily discount the possibility of them holding a 9. If they did have a 9 and were going to "just call down," then they would bet anyway if you checked to them (other than SB/BB of course).

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