UTG is a tall, quiet white guy, late 30s. I am almost sure he is not a pro, but I know he plays 1/2 as well. He is *very* tight and cautious, doesn't get out of line. Having said that, he will definetly bet for value thinner than average live player.
UTG opens, only hero calls in BB with AK. He did not playe with me a lot, I don't know what are his assumptions about my calling range. I think though he would imagine I can 3-bet with premiums.
Flop AT3 hero check calls planning to kr turn (this is debatable I guess - can it be a big mistake?)
Turn 7 check/check
River T bet / fold or bet / call ?

If he is very tight and doesn't get out of line I don't see how this isn't a b/f vs villains description

yes flop is a big mistake

also i don't see 'cautious' equaling 'vbs thin'

i'm tempted to c/r the river but the read is all over the place

I considered a c/r river as well. But I'm not sure how well it does. I think we get a crying call from all Broadway Ax but otherwise we are getting him to just fold worse and raise better. No? Its seems awfully painful to use a c/r/f to 3! Line when turn goes c/c

if he has worse and bet/folds it then we get 1 bet out of that part of his range. as opposed to 0 if we lead and he folds it, or 1 if we lead and he calls it. he may even bet/call hands like KK, QQ out of spite/confusion.

it's very hard for him to have better given how he's played the hand. he has to have basically KTs or QTs or maybe JTs, yes? those are relatively few combos.

*C/r/f to 3! Seems bad in relation to pot size tho.

In this spot I do find it very hard for him to have better then AK. However, I think we get a spite call with a lead otr anyways from hands listed above. Is it not more worth while to get an almost guaranteed call otr then risk getting checked behind to again?

No one likes check/call on the river? I think as played up to this point this line has merit. Agree however that the flop needs to be a c/r and that avoids this predicament on the river.

+1 c/raise flop. KK-JJ and worse Ax checks on a lot of scary looking turn cards.

c/raising river is aimed at extracting 2BB's out of AJ/AQ (16 combos) but misses value on 15 combos of overpairs (KK-JJ). I like bet/fold river; if villain hero-folds some of his Ax and bet-calls his Tx, c/raising river is less profitable than b/f.

Mistake to fold the river when you've underrepped your hand every street and he knows you're a 40player taking a shot.

I CR this flop. I know there are a lot of guys on here who prefer a turn c/r, but it just seems like such a disaster when the turn gets checked through.

River is whatever. Flop is pretty bad for lots of reasons that I'm too lazy to write.

bet for value expecting to never get raised, 3 bet to bluff him off his ten if he does.

I actually feel like I'm on glue reading some of these responses. Am I losing my ****?!

If we just call pre, as OP did here (which is debatable!), we should take lead and bet out every street and call if raised on turn or river. (Why am I wrong? It seems obv to me...) I feel like OP had no plan going into this hand for how he would play his monster if he hit the flop. The missed value on the flop and turn is awful, IMO, and over time, k/r attempts on the big streets gone-wrong, like this one, are costing OP way too much money. Just bet! This villain isn't going to call a k/r on the turn and then also call down a river bet all that often (unless he's got a flush or better--hands that beat OP), IMO, so just bet out both streets and hope to extract two bb's because you're going to lose your customer with the k/r a lot more often than you're going to extract 3 bb's out of him--even if he's showdown prone.

And as for k/r'ing to induce villain to fold a 10, well, you'd better have a SICK read on your opponent to pull off that play. And the success of that play isn't just dependent on your read of your villain, but also (and perhaps even more importantly) dependent on how the villain perceives you. And only top players are going to make that laydown; you've used a lot of modifiers to describe this villain, but "expert" isn't one of them... In other words, I don't like a k/r bluff into a hand which includes a 10 very much, and, as played, it's unlikely that villain even holds a 10, which makes this play even worse. In fact, the only hand I can see this villain, as described, holding which includes a 10, is A-Ts, which gives him a full, not trips--so the bluff is not a good idea. It's actually a really bad idea--even though it doesn't need to work very often to be profitable.

do you want an honest answer?

I would absolutely raise the flop because I'm raising with a lot of stuff here when I just smooth call out of the Blind. We have to get one extra bet on the smaller streets and this is the way to do it imo.

As played I'd probably bet call because his line is so wtf.