Originally Posted by Mort Stetson
I thought it was close, but what do you think BTNs range is after checking back the flop? I can't think of any holdings a TAG would 3! pre and then check back on this board other than maybe 77-99, or maybe some Ax suited hands that could be in his range.
If hero checks, I can see folding to a button bet and a call from BB, but I don't think hero should k/f if BTN bets and BB folds.
It doesn't matter what his range is when he checks back, it's what his range is when he bets the turn. If he checked back 66-99 on the flop, he's checking back this turn too. If he checked back Ax, then maybe he bets and maybe we fold a chop. But whatever he checked back the flop with, if he bets the turn he has a J a ton, or maybe something like AT that has now decided to value bet two pair. Plus there's the BB to contend with. Furthermore, there's a flush on board which will usually discourage people from value betting worse hands than top pair here (like K9 or whatever -- if those hands have a single heart, they're not going to risk getting checkraised by the BB's Jx). And we have no heart to draw to.