20/40 at the bellagio. Game seems full of regs. Hero should be seen as random.
Second orbit, no specific reads yet. Hero is relatively new to this limit (but as a rec have sufficient life roll to take a shot) Thoughts on how I'm ranging players much appreciated.

OTTH
Hero utg+1 raises with QcQh
CO calls
Btn calls
Sb folds
Bb calls

Flop 8.5sb
9c 7c 4s
BB check
Hero bets
Co fold
Btn calls
BB calls
We expect btn to have flush draws, 9s,T8 or 86 without the combo draw. discounting TT+ to have 3! pre and 2p hands to raise flop. Sets may be in the mix. For BB similar range except more likely to have JJ -TT in range.

Turn 5.75bb (11.5sb)
Kd 9c 7c 4s
Bb checks
Hero bets (thoughts? Its an overcard)
Btn calls
Bb raises
Hero ?

Btn call seems drawish to me.
V c/r seems strong as he's raising bettor plus caller. He should range hero on overpair or a fd with overs. Seems like he hit a K to go with his fd or is now raising a set or 2p. He could be semi bluffing with his combo draws.






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You're ranges are weird. Waaaaay to tight and "reasonable." Btn's range is basically any two he over calls with and a random 20/40 players over all range can literally be any two cards. This board catches an ATC range just enough that with position he's going to peel with basically
His whole range

JT, QT, QJ, KJ, Q8s, almost Kx and Ax all easy peels

Think about this way, on the flop he's getting 9:1 and has position. Whether he should have raised isn't important, just that at will at least call. At this price with position he's only going to need like three cards close together to be able to peel. So....

What hand with two overs isn't peeling?
What hand with a T or an 8 in it, isn't two over or has some kind of sort of guy shot? Only really ****ty kickers.
Any A,K,Q,J with at least an 8 kicker can peel.

Just talking about a the 9,7 and overs we're already at basically any hand that has a 7 or higher that a has an 8 kicker or higher.

And we're still just talking about the range of a single random 20/40 player. It's a whole nother ball of wax when we start talking about the fact a Bellagio 20/40 game in the off season has drunk tourists who will limp K8o in early position and guys who will play 200/400 if there are enough players

After now having spent a cpl more hours at the game I'm beginning to see how wide ranges are. No one is drinking yet and it's def a mix of regs so far (knowing each other, floor & dealers by name. Server knowing what they get etc)

More interested in BB's range in the hand btw. Especially what he would c/r turn with. I know can tell you that BB is one of the competent players on the table. Seems reasonably tight and aware of position and somewhat aggressive.
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Seem a fold for me with the all reasons you stated.
I do not like the turn bet btw.
Or i like it if you fold it , but betting to call down not really .

Turn is a bet

To call down, really ?

Sometimes, sometimes not. Depends on the BB. It's also the kind of question where my answer will be heavily biased because I arrived at the office about 30 minutes ago

Also just because you may get raised doesn't mean you don't have a value range. TT is still a favorite and lots of hands are drawing or calling down. Bet and collect

I agree with you and actually i think we already have a good portion for value betting here into 2 players on the turn.
All K, ,AK, A9,99,77 and plenty of draws which we will bet/call or 3bet .

I think QQ here has a lot value for 1 or 2BB but not 3 .
So i understand to call and fold on the river on bad cards but a lot of bad cards will happen on the river anyway that will force us to fold anyway .

And it is not a HU as well .
Chances BB is blufing should be less because BU already called.
I just think it is too thin for value , i would rather just check and have a strong bluff catch here or an easy bet for value on the river if check to on safe cards.

The river seem bad spot often because we are squeeze in between as well if we call the turn raise.
So the chances we make a mistake should increase a lot.
Imo if we bet, a bet/fold is much better than bet/call .

I haven't said anything about bet/calling except for the fact that against some players I'll fold and some ill call. And sometimes I'll cal on the river and sometimes I'll fold. Random 20/40 player isn't enough information to make this decision. They only thing I can talk about is the turn bet, and it's a really easy one because we have a hand that gets a lot of value and is really vulnerable on this board

I think QQ is standard bet on turn. The check-raise seems dumb to me. I don't like delaying aggression if I am BB on this flop texture at all because it seems like turn will check through a lot. I also don't like bluffing the turn often if I'm in his spot because the king hits your range hard.

Either way, there's probably not much difference between calling down versus folding. I'd probably fold at Bellagio since the regs seem pretty nitty and value oriented. I'd definitely fold in California because this is almost always a monster. But I'd probably call down in Arizona or other reasonable places against most players.

The more important thing is that the ranges you are assigning are way too tight. People don't need top pair+ or a massive draw to peel one on the flop in a decent sized pot in LHE.

If I call the turn, I'm folding on 0 rivers.

Agreed with ZOMG that the turn is a bet and it's not close. Once raised, whether to call or fold should heavily depend on our read of this player.

If I think he has a semibluff range on the turn, then I'm leaning heavily towards calling. JT/86/T8/clubs all make sense, and I don't think he's necessarily giving up on the river.

I think it may get interesting if villain is competent and has a balanced turn raising range. Now we have a question of how much of our range we should continue with.

After betting the turn, we should have a lot of strong hands that we can continue with: AcKc/KcQc/AA/KK/99 (14 combos). We might have some semibluffs (AcQc/AcJc/QcJc/JcTc), but we may or may not bet the turn and some of them we fold pre. So our bet/fold range looks like QQ/JJ/TT (18 combos). Clearly, if we b/f all of those hands, we become very exploitable by bet folding nearly half our range. You're getting ~5.5:1 to get to showdown with a player to act behind you, so you can fold ~1/6 of your hands with indifference. That's 6 combos.

Maybe b/f all of your TT combos isn't all that bad? (You also block their JT/T8 combos, so their semibluffs are weighted towards flush draws of which you have less equity) Interested to hear other's thoughts. Again, this is if villain is balanced raising the turn.

Was at this game but maybe not this hand. Table is all mid but mostly old regs and a couple Asian ladies w lots of money. They are playing so wide here. Hands like k9 are calling and raising but I'd think they raise in positing on the flop.

Your ranges are too tight and nobody is folding that flop. Even kJ or kt is calling here. I think the ranges you stated are raising flops more than calling.

The better I think the bb is the more likely I'll calling down. Depends on what the third player does I'm calling basically every river except like the Qc or the Jc. Then I'll flip a coin

Just to be clear when you say "even KJ or kt" you mean "kj or kt have easy calls." Folding them is bad

Bet/fold seems standard. That game played really passive the 5 times i've been out there, and most players won't x/r with worse than a king here. Especially OTT.

Do Hero's strong hands include AxKy, at least AcKx?

I think they check the flop, no?

why would you ever think that?

This...

Seems to contradict all the analysis you've done in the latter part of your post.

I would bet this almost always against standard unknown opponents. But if I perceived someone as good/combative/balanced, I don't think checking turn is quite as indefensible as everyone else seems to. I think you should have a check back range that sees a show down against good competent opponents.

Yeah, you're giving a free card, but you're recapturing some of that lost value by the possible over call from button on turn, and encouraging bluffs, bets, and calls from worse hands on the river. So for me...

1). b/f against standard non combative regs
2). Check turn, then call or b/c river against good combative opponents.
3). b/call down against overly combative opponents.

IMHO.

So my analysis on folding TT combos is based on if we were playing against a GTO bot/perfect opponent. Point is, whether to b/f or bet-call down is heavily influenced on our notes of opponent. By default, I fold this all day on the turn because opponents just aren't raising the turn often enough as semibluffs, and they may perceive we have more AK combos than we really have.

I agree with ZOMG; checking here makes no sense, as we're missing out on way too much value, especially with the 3rd player in the hand. Prior to the raise, we are an equity favorite against both villains' ranges. After being raised, we simply consider whether we have enough equity to continue, which in this case, is mostly estimating semibluffs in BB's range. (Of course, BTN can have us beat too).

I haven't stoved it, but trust your analysis and intuitively agree we're an equity favorite against both villains' range to where betting is no doubt profitable. But what if the button folded on the flop leaving you heads up with a well balanced BB? Would you ever check back QQ? If not, what should be our check back range (as a percentage of distribution) that sees a show down (and by that I mean bets if checked to, or calls a river bet)?

Sorry if that's a dumb question, but I probably miss too much value in spots like this, or on boards like JJX-X, TTX-X, etc. against players I perceive to be tricky/good.

Would actually like to learn about the math on that as well.

Intuitively: Our range should be narrow opening UTG (AJ+/88+). Our opponent's range, in contrast, can be very wide. This means we are (and should) be very showdown bound.

I think this also means it's ok to not have a "check turn" range on this specific turn card, because your range is still smashing your opponent's. If the turn were an 8, id start considering checking hands like KcQc.

I went back and forth a lot on trying to decide what I'd do with QQ against a GTO opponent. Ill go with betting.