Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 108
This seems like a reluctant call and evaluate the turn card and action. You are getting a locked in 8.5:1 on your call I beleive (4 bet cap there, right?) and in the very worst of situations you have 2 outs to the nuts on the turn against someone else's set, with very poor odds to call now but huge implied odds if you hit and an opponent holds a set. If you knew for sure that one of the two villains holds a set then it would be ok to fold. However, if you are up against 2 pair and a draw, you have 5 outs on the turn and 8 on the river if the turn card does not complete the draw. You are probably not ahead at the moment, but it is not impossible either.
UTG seems horrendous based on what little we know about him (limp UTG and backraise). He could very well have limped 22, 77, 97 suited or not, A9 or K9, some other suited nines, or even 10-8. He is not aware of your image, so I'm guessing his play is based primarily on the strength of his holdings and would guess that he is weighted towards a stronger made hand but that 10-8 is also a possible holding. There is some small chance he is just a maniac too and capped without good reason.
If you call, the turn action becomes very important. Either SB will remain the aggressor and you can fold to a bet and raise by BB. If SB checks and BB checks, this smells fishy and I would actually value check almost any turn card, although I am not sure that would be the best play. Others might disagree? Toughest situation is if SB checks and BB bets, then I'd need more info on how the SB plays and what the turn card is.