20/40 at Borgata

TAG opens from 4 off the button, I have a pretty straightforward image and I 3bet 88 from the CO, everybody folds back to the TAG who calls.
I've played a few hours with villain and he likely views me as an ABC tag. He is pretty aggressive postflop with frequent semibluff raises. I also believe that he won't ever 4bet preflop headsup against me at least not out of position.

Headsup to the flop of KT3 rainbow, he checks, I cbet, he calls
turn is another T making a flush draw possible, he checks,
should I bet here or check behind and call a bet on any non Q,J, or A river?

I like a bet because:

I think he c/r Kx on the flop often.
I think he donks Tx on the turn more often than not.
I'd like him to fold all those AQ, AJ combos now.
He may fold QQ or JJ.
It's fairly easy to fold to a c/r now, should it happen. You only lose 1 bet, same as if you check back and call river.

i definitely bet here.

@n-s-w i don't think we're betting to try and fold QQ or JJ. i wouldn't expect those to fold here ever

Okay, maybe not, but stranger things have happened! At least he folds 99 sometimes.

I don't think he donks a ten on the turn. This is a board that is very good for my range and he expects me to bet it virtually always so he's probably going to checkraise his strong hands perhaps even AK and TT. I think he probably checkraises the flop with KT and I don't know his approach with QJ.

If we do decide to value-check, we shouldn't call a bet if the river card is a K, either.

AQ and AJs are probably in his range and have lots of outs but he doesn't know that.

correct, I overlooked that. I could sneaky raise river and spew off 2 bets then
This is what I was thinking so I bet the turn, he checkraised and I somehow convinced myself that he has a hand such as Ax flush draw or decided now to raise AJ/AQ often enough and I called planning on folding any spade or broadway card on the river(which is probably terrible but can it ever be reasonable?)
the river was an offsuit Q and he thought for a few seconds before firing a bullet in and I basically instamucked.

I do this a lot. Bet telling myself if I get raised that MHING, then convince myself that MHIG! Big leak. I lose a lot of bets this way. Overwhelmingly (waaay less than the pot odds would indicate), villain had just what I thought before I convinced myself otherwise.

PJ said in another thread (iirc, he was referring to rivers, but I make the leak on turns and rivers just the same), that too often mid-stakes 2+2 posters (especially LAGs iirc?) always say to b/f but then when it comes time to fold, they still call. Quite true. I need to work on it. I lack serious discipline here. You should fold to the c/r too, ainec imho. Even I would fold that one. At least that's what I say.

just b/f the turn and feel fine

Are you sure? A flush draw appeared, and he could be semi bluffing it, or has decided that his straight draw hasn't made it yet, and needs some umph. The read is "frequent semibluff raises."

sure, so his range is made hands that crush us already, or semibluffs with pretty good equity against us (draw + overcards to our pair, usually). we're at the very bottom of our range, and overall doing poorly vs his range. it's two more bets to show down, with lots of gross rivers, some where we might have to fold the best hand. there's also a chance villain is "bluffing" with a hand better than ours already

So why are we betting at all?

we're doing poorly vs his range once he checkraises us, is what i meant. before we know he's going to checkraise us, we're doing okay vs him, and we want to get value from all of his stuff that's drawing, and we're toward the bottom of our range, so that's why we do bet