20/40 narrow range spot that confused me - Page 2 - Medium Stakes Poker Forum

If he has a king, we'd be very happy calling down and putting in 2.5 big bets.
If he has less than a king, we'd be very happy if we could bet 3 times and have him call 3 times, putting in 2.5 big bets. We'd be very happy if the weak nonSDV part of his range puts in 2.5 big bets.

As far as I'm concerned, we are in a free-roll situation. If we have a strong enough read, maybe we get greedy for an extra small bet or two, but I would not be unhappy with a call down.

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09-28-2015 , 09:38 AM

#27

callipygian

slowrolled by tpiranha!

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 19,880

Quote:

Originally Posted by phunkphish

If we have a strong enough read, maybe we get greedy for an extra small bet or two, but I would not be unhappy with a call down.

You should be greedy and you should be unhappy when you don't make the best play.

If we win 2.5 bets in this scenario and our opponent wins 3 when the hole cards are reversed, we lose.

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09-28-2015 , 12:08 PM

#28

phunkphish

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 2,902

If the cards are reversed, we will never be donking. We would win more with our Kx, and lose less with our rags.

I get that poker is all about choosing the highest EV lines. We can still be happy when we recognize villains making mistakes that increase our EV. Here we have a decision of whether to make a thin value raise after villain takes a nonstandard line. It's comforting to know villain has already made a mistake and increased our EV.

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09-28-2015 , 03:43 PM

#29

stinkypete

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Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 15,783

Quote:

Originally Posted by phunkphish

I get that poker is all about choosing the highest EV lines. We can still be happy when we recognize villains making mistakes that increase our EV. Here we have a decision of whether to make a thin value raise after villain takes a nonstandard line. It's comforting to know villain has already made a mistake and increased our EV.

you shouldn't be comforted by anything if you believe you didn't make the highest EV play. recognizing some mistakes and knowing that you're playing a little better than your opponents means very little when the house is taking 120% of your profits

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09-28-2015 , 03:58 PM

#30

Zeke Ferrari

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 1,743

As soon as I just called the turn, that's when I felt like I had made a mistake. Once I do that, I felt like it was obvious that I don't have a king. If I had AK or KQs, I would raise somewhere at least (I go back and forth between flop and turn) and then I felt like I should have something in my raising range that is not Kx otherwise it's super easy to read my hand. Plus, given that villain's hand is probably less likely to be Kx, my hand is pretty strong and worthy of more action. I would say that my biggest fall into this category of being too passive with strong hands.

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09-28-2015 , 05:53 PM

#31

UrTurrible@Pokerz

newbie

Join Date: Sep 2015 Posts: 24

Quote:

Originally Posted by lawdude

But that's based on the rather unsupported assumptions that (1) the villain has a donking range beyond Kx, (2) that the donking range contains twice as many hands we beat as hands that will beat us, and (3) the hands that we beat will call our raise.

If you have this read, fine. But readless?

there's this thing called "the play of the population" and it's handy to use when you don't have a strong read on an individual player so we're never really completely readless

urturrible@pokerz

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09-28-2015 , 07:44 PM

#32

Key Largo

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2015 Posts: 103

Quote:

Originally Posted by UrTurrible@Pokerz

there's this thing called "the play of the population" and it's handy to use when you don't have a strong read on an individual player so we're never really completely readless

urturrible@pokerz

The one semi productive thing you have wrote.

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09-28-2015 , 10:50 PM

#33

lawdude

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Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 10,305

Quote:

Originally Posted by phunkphish

Yep. It isn't written enough here, but you just wrote it. "A player's winrate is a result of non-reciprocity."

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09-29-2015 , 01:42 PM

#34

Lurshy

veteran

Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 2,001

Player has K donking in his range.

You played fine. He can read hands. If he chks calls the flop,l (waiting for turn) you chk behind the turn (his call screams trap alert) and call river. He makes less.

If he chk raise flop, you may shut down or fold, and folding you out at any point makes him less.

So he donks his king. if you raise he can go to war or trap u later or get away cheap. And your calls are weak so he will keep value betting...

Just taking the contra. I think you lost minimum or made maxium while minimizing likely potential loses

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09-29-2015 , 03:16 PM

#35

phunkphish

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 2,902

Quote:

Originally Posted by stinkypete

There is playing well and playing perfectly.

If you only aspire to play perfectly, you will beat yourself up every time you make the most minuscule of errors and poker will take its toll on your life.

Players should also be honest with their own skill level. It's okay to improve in increments. It's okay to have a couple bad plays in a session filled with otherwise solid poker.

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09-30-2015 , 01:08 PM

#36

stinkypete

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Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 15,783

Quote:

Originally Posted by phunkphish

or you can aspire to play perfectly and not beat yourself up over small mistakes

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09-30-2015 , 06:56 PM

#37

Chasqui

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 1,749

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zeke Ferrari

What other worse hands are you raising the turn with? If none, raising only with a K+ is beyond terrible. You can lose a BB close to100% of the time! Do you see why?

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09-30-2015 , 08:29 PM

#38

stinkypete

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Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 15,783

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chasqui

What other worse hands are you raising the turn with? If none, raising only with a K+ is beyond terrible. You can lose a BB close to100% of the time! Do you see why?

assuming that your opponent knows exactly what you're doing is a hudge leak in live poker