Probably lose to 2p or a set. Though I think you could convince me to get tricksy here. c/r/f or b/f give you a (probably very decent) shot of folding out hands which given your flop line could have made it big on the turn and expected to c/r then. And it doesn't have to work often, either.
But maybe I give them too narrow a range to have gone nuts on the flop, checked a scary-ish turn, and bet the river.
No idea what the BTN can possibly have in this hand after he checks the turn. He certaintly would have bet a flush 2 pair or a set on the turn, and would probably check the river with a 10. Unless he has something weird like 36 or is really bad and checked a monster on the turn. I would have played it the same as you though.
Does anyone want to raise the river? Seems to me button has JJ or QQ, given the pre-flop action and the subsequent turn action when the ace hit.
Most probably, he has QQ, with no Qh. The UTG has folded. Your turn check showed fear of the Ace and BTN has bet the river after also showing fear of the Ace, probably putting you on JJ
Possibly he slow-played KhQh, but would he have capped with this after the flop? I think he would have jammed a small flush or two small pair, particularly after the Ace turned.
I think he has QQ 50% of the time here and that for me is enough to bet or check-raise.
I think he has QQ 50% of the time here and that for me is enough to bet or check-raise.
List all hands that would call a k/r after the flop got 5bet, an A turns completing the flush, and there's a one card straight on board. Of all those, what % do we beat?
List all hands that would call a k/r after the flop got 5bet, an A turns completing the flush, and there's a one card straight on board. Of all those, what % do we beat?
The most interesting issue you've raised is the subset of villain's range with which he would check the turn.
I would argue that we beat quite a bit of that subset and well enough to at least bet the turn.
His turn check is most consistent with a top pair type of hands being afraid of Ah. Hands stronger than top pair will bet if you check and call if you bet. He may check behind some of the top pair hands if you check and will call with them all if you bet. I would like a bet here.
Two Plus Two
Linear Mode
