15/30 Oaks

CO opens, I 3! AQ, blinds fold, CO calls.

Reads:
CO has some occasional bad tendencies, such as open-limping. I've been 3betting him some, and he's probably looking to play back.

Flop: QT3 Pot~7.3sb
CO checks, I bet, CO c/raises, I call. Plan is to raise safe turns.
My thoughts:

Turn: 7
CO bets, I call, planning to call down.
Thoughts?
CO bets, I call. Plan is to call down.

raise turn

What turn cards wouldn't you have raised the turn?

You had the right plan but chickened out. Raise turn, fold to a 3

I like.

I would not be folding to a 3-bet against hardly anyone and certainly not against someone who is "looking to play back." I would raise this turn however.

What kind of range would you put villain on if/when he 3-bets the turn?

Also, OP, just 3-bet the flop if this card is going to slow you down that much.

This seems to depend on the following questions that you would have better answers to than anyone that hasn't played with the player:

* Does he c/r gutshots?
* Does he cap pf?
* Does he c/r Ax FD's?
* Can you fold to a 3b?

Pretty much the ones that have me crushed and the combo draws/spazz lines that don't. I would expect to lose most of the time.

haven't played with him enough to know. Since it's a CO/BTN/blinds spot, I wouldn't put it past him to have gutshots. He may have a capping range pf, he prob would c/r fd's given the game flow.

One point I forgot to mention. I did see him cold-call first in against an MP open with TT from the CO.

Because I'm so unsure of his range, my thoughts on the turn was that I didn't want to fold out hands that might continue bluffing, nor did I want to be 3bet and be put to a gross decision. If he has, say, KdKx, I do have something like 4 outs to improve.

As a rule of the thumb, if there are this many cards that are going to stop you from getting a turn raise you should be jamming the flop.

If he has KK and three bets the turn it can't that big mistake. You're giving up equity to six combos of KK (assuming he three bets with out the Kd) and are drawing close to dead against anything else legit. You're still drawing to a four outer in a pot less than 10 big bets. Since you can't raise the river even if you improve there is almost no overlay

I raise the flop 95% of the time when there is a flop with this sort of texture. I have TPTK and he has a WIDE range of hands, especially given your description in OP. Given his range, there are WAY too many potential scare cards that can fall on the turn and cause him to check call or check fold. I would almost always 3! the flop here.

At live 15/30 I don't think this is such a bad line. You'll see lots of players with a tight check-raise range on the flop and when the best draw then hits it's not exactly a favorable situation with TPTK. But not so horrible I ever want to not make it to the river. OPs line seems to balance those factors OK.

The higher the stakes or better the villain, the more raising the flop is right.

This.

And this.

I feel like this is a misunderstood concept. Unless villain is going to be checking the turn a non-insignificant amount, I don't see how jamming the flop is going to gain more than delaying to the turn. Its not like we're hoping to B/3-b/C Flop, Raise turn here (maybe some are, but I think that would have been stated in responses.)

By delaying, we gives ourselves the option of putting in more bets than our flop jam flop line and we get to choose which cards we want to do it with. If we can't raise AQ on this turn, its because our hand just isn't that good anymore and there is nothing wrong with that. Its easy to forget the times we get to put in 2BB on the turn with 80% equity (just a guess) when a brick rolls off.

I suppose an argument could be made for jamming the flop if we felt villain was folding a lot of value to our delay raise line, but I don't see that as the case.

I feel like posters are being slightly results oriented in this case. If OP had posted the hand with a 2c rolling off on the turn and we raised, I doubt very many posters would have questioned his line.

Totally agree w slide.

I agree with him too. I meant, on this hand there it's going to be tough for him too get a raise in on a lot of turns if he's not going to raise a blank diamond on the turn so he may as well pop the flop