Button is a reg who I think it not fantastic. Other guy is unknown, but he striked me as possibly being spewy, not sure if he's good or not..

I am wondering about semi-bluffing the turn here. In the actual hand I elected to just call due to my limited read on BB, but I was very tempted because it is a very strong move and any possibility to win UI is worth considering.

So, would you ever pull the trigger here? If I hada better read that BBcould show up with crap here, or be capable of having and folding Ax would it be good?

Poker Stars $50/$100 Limit Hold'em - 3 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

Pre Flop: Hero is SB with J Q
BTN raises, Hero 3-bets, BB caps!, BTN calls, Hero calls

Flop: (12 SB) K 4 5 (3 players)
Hero checks, BB bets, BTN calls, Hero calls

Turn: (7.5 BB) 7 (3 players)
Hero checks, BB bets, BTN calls,

personally I tend to agree with you. I don't think I can pull the trigger against an unknown who capped pre. With a better read it's definately a very strong play and helps you win a higher % UI, but with an unknown I'm leaning to flatting.


did you get there????!?!?!?!?!?

I would raise this. I think BT would have a very hard time calling two more bets here unless he improves. Basically he has to have a king and I think he would raise the flop some of the time with that and there are so many other pair hands he could have. If BB is pretty loose, then he can have a good number of Ax and lower pairs, and while people rarly fold pairs, raising here and betting the river only cost you about .5 of a bet assuming 25% equity which I think is reasonable considering that your pairs are good occasionally. (Note that you're only investing 2 additional bets not 3.) So this bluff has to work .5/10.5 or 1 in 21 times. I think that's more then enough even if I've made a generous assumption and it's really 1 in 15 or something.

I should point out that there is one problem. Your c/r'ing range here is pretty much K7s/77 and FD's because waiting for the turn OOP and particually here with a hand that would warrent a c/r is pretty bad IMO. I think you're opponents would have to be very perseptive to notice this but it's not out of the question that a very good player would and call you down light.

Nice thoughts. I read the first part of your post and kept thinking that if a good player is in trypt's spot no way he's on a naked king c/r'ing the turn. Then you pointed this out. You don't think most players think this deeply at the 50 level?

FWIW I've never played the 50 at PS as the games usually look tough-ish.

-Bill

I totally agree with leader. I think making this move has value, as you do probably have some fold equity, especially against the button. Also you set up a nice spewy image for c/r'ing your strong 2pr+ hands on the turn in the future if you get called down.

This is one of those plays I like because there are a lot of potential upsides, but only a small downside (you potentially lose an extra BB).

suppose you made this play and both players call. Are you barreling a blank river into both of them? are there certain blanks you will bluff and others you won't?

I also think the problem is that, if you had a decent hand, you are not checkcalling+checkraising, so villains are probably calling down light. I don't think the pot is that big to try this.

Is this an automatic flop peel for everyone? If so, if a diamond hadn't flopped, would that change your decision?

How would you proceed if you it a non-diamond Q or J on the turn? Just call down?

Good question toughs?

pot odds? 14:1 closing the action. Backdoors are worth around 3 outs and pair outs are good once in a while as button would often raise Kx or better and as hands like 66, A8s, ATo, JTs are all potentially in BB's range.

If you wanna fold this flop you fold too much and should revealuate your requirements for peeling

Since a diamond is worth 1.5 outs it obviously has a huge effect of the EV of a peel in a 14BB pot.


Call turn at least. Folding getting around 8 or 9 to 1 would be rather tarded and there is little or more likely no value in raising. What to do on river is a lot more interesting

Raising here just seems silly to me. It's quite a parlay to get them both fold, you most likely have to invest 2BB to pull it off, and your line is not all that credible. You could have 77 of course, but that's just one hand.

Is AK completely out of the hero's range? Are you jamming flop 100% with AK here?

yes, I would jam with AK. Basically if I semi-bluff the turn, a good player's bs detector should start to go off. Not sure if either of these players have bs detectors, or if they listen to it when it goes off.

seems like it would be good for balance to sometimes wait til the turn to raise with AK here. There aren't a lot of draws you should worry too much about, and it will make it harder for you to get owned in situations like this hand. Plus, it will set off the 'bs detectors' wheras if you jam flop you probably are never getting looked up on the end by AQ or something.

I would usually jam flop, but 100% seems too high for that course of action to me. Maybe it's a leak for me?

I don't think declinig to jam flop will alter our opponents' strategies nearly enough to make up the lost value.

We are very rarely winning this outright on the turn, so I'm assuming we're firing the river as well if just pfr calls, c/f if both call ui, or what? Just does not compute.

We're not getting owned in this situation. We can't really extract anything from competent opponents in large multiway pots, and they can't really extract anything from us, unless we make spewwy mistakes like semibluffing this turn.

imo, delaying action with a big hand is generally a specific exploitive play (especially in multiway pots). We don't have the reads necessary to exploit these players in this way, so we should try and get close to optimal. We don't do that by mixing in passive lines with our good hand strategy sets, but by missing in aggressive lines with our weak/draw hand strategy sets.

The onle place in this hand where we might gain value against competent opponents is the flop peel. I think a quite a few regs wouldn't make it, which is a mistake.

Id like it better on somthing like the 2d or Td on the turn. As is, Im worried about the button mostly. BB will fold his no pair hands and occasionally underpairs to the K.

I feel like the Button ends up peeling here with 88, planning to fold the river UI, then calling it anyway after the BB folds.